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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3625 on: January 20, 2010, 11:53:30 pm »

New York(Rasmussen)

Approve 56%
Disapprove 43%

Rasmussen's state approval polls seem very "flat", in that there's less deviation from the national numbers state by state than one would expect: Obama is both doing worse in Democratic strongholds (NY) than one would expect based on his national numbers and better in Republican strongholds (TX) that one would expect. No way to know, though, if this is actually happening or if it's just one of Scotty's many polling quirks.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3626 on: January 21, 2010, 02:15:12 am »

New York(Rasmussen)

Approve 56%
Disapprove 43%

Rasmussen's state approval polls seem very "flat", in that there's less deviation from the national numbers state by state than one would expect: Obama is both doing worse in Democratic strongholds (NY) than one would expect based on his national numbers and better in Republican strongholds (TX) that one would expect. No way to know, though, if this is actually happening or if it's just one of Scotty's many polling quirks.

Possible explanation: that ideological polarization between the states that intensified when the divisive George W. Bush was President and figures like DeLay and Santorum were rubbing the power of the GOP in the faces of liberals has begun to abate. It could be that the state-by-state polarization on partisan loyalty peaked in 2008.

How polarized was the 2008 election?

1. Wholly 384 electoral votes were decided by 10% or more -- 264 for Obama, 120 for McCain.  Those were 384 electoral votes that got little attention, as a rule. Only 154 electoral votes were even reasonably under contest.  A 10% margin is a blowout. That number of electoral votes

Considering that such states that either Obama or McCain won by less than 10% weren't far from 10% (Iowa, New Hampshire, Arizona, South Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota) weren't really contested late. Only 89 electoral votes were decided by 5% or less.  Obama was winning by gigantic margins in some states, but also lost by gigantic margins in some states. 

2. 31 states and the DC have voted only for candidates for one Party or the other  -- 18 states and DC only for the Democratic nominees, and 13 only for Republican nominees -- in the last five Presidential elections.  Of the largest states in population (California, Texas, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan) only two (Florida and Ohio) have split their votes.

3. As a black man, Barack Obama may have suggested that he was going to do many things that many white people feared -- like supporting reparations for slavery, like leniency toward criminals, huge increases in welfare spending, and intensifying affirmative action entirely to the benefit of black people. 

As a consequence, voters may have begun to see the danger of their states becoming ideological fiefs, with the President paying attention largely to a few "swing" states instead of winning on concerns that affect everyone. Machine politics serve people badly, and since 1988, some states may have begun to have political machines that did not exist before 1980. Areas that vote "wrong" like Greater San Antonio and downstate Illinois get under-served. That's hardly good for America. 

It is also possible that many people, especially white people in the South, have begun to figure that Barack Obama is hardly the menace that they thought. He hasn't pushed for reparations for slavery, he hasn't been lenient toward criminals of any kind, he hasn't pushed anti-gun legislation, and he hasn't tried to intensify affirmative action. If welfare expenditures have increased, then it is because of a severe downturn in the economy that has nothing to do with some "heritage of welfare dependency". If in 2012 Southern white people see Obama as a black man who has solved some of their economic problems, then we just might see lots of people voting for him because he isn't "that sort" of black man -- the sort that they legitimately fear. (Southern whites have just as much to fear from white crooks, but that is a different story).

Economic despair now knows no regional divide. Texas may have been hit later than Michigan or Ohio, but it has been hit. In the last twenty years, Presidential nominees have tended to campaign in "swing states" and ignore the rest, often on "cultural" issues -- and by "culture" I don't mean Edward Elgar vs. Duke Ellington. Maybe the culture wars over such issues as abortion, gun rights, evolution, and school prayer that used to divide Americans because such issues don't put food on the table, and nobody has been successful in ramming them through.
 

   

 
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Rowan
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« Reply #3627 on: January 21, 2010, 10:46:19 am »

Missouri(Rasmussen)

Approve 41%
Disapprove 58%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/missouri/toplines/toplines_2010_missouri_senate_january_19_2010



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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« Reply #3628 on: January 21, 2010, 12:03:50 pm »

Pennsylvania(Rasmussen)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 53%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/pennsylvania/toplines_election_2010_pennsylvania_senate_january_18_2010




30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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« Reply #3629 on: January 21, 2010, 12:42:50 pm »

The today rasmussen polls are very bad for obama and democrats. Probably the massach. effect
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3630 on: January 21, 2010, 01:10:18 pm »

The today rasmussen polls are very bad for obama and democrats. Probably the massach. effect

Good question -- what do the Republicans have to offer? They have been long on carping and short on solutions. The solution that the Republicans usually offer (all for the poor, starving plutocrats and executives -- irony intended) doesn't have such appeal when it appears in real life. Nostalgia for Dubya?

President Obama may have gone as far as he can with a liberal agenda to undo as much of the Dubya-era disaster as possible, and when the economic royalists get their way in November, Obama may end up with the role that Bill Clinton got -- keeping the Republicans honest and preventing their most blatant give-aways to crony capitalists, degradations of civil liberties, and intellectual fraud from taking hold.

We shall see soon enough what sort of Senator the newest one is... and if he is another DeMint/Chambliss/Coburn/Imhofe clone or stooge of Mike McConnell, then things might not be so great for the Republicans in November. Driving a truck or hunting moose isn't enough to constitute political wisdom.
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« Reply #3631 on: January 21, 2010, 01:14:44 pm »

The today rasmussen polls are very bad for obama and democrats. Probably the massach. effect

Good question -- what do the Republicans have to offer? They have been long on carping and short on solutions. The solution that the Republicans usually offer (all for the poor, starving plutocrats and executives -- irony intended) doesn't have such appeal when it appears in real life. Nostalgia for Dubya?

President Obama may have gone as far as he can with a liberal agenda to undo as much of the Dubya-era disaster as possible, and when the economic royalists get their way in November, Obama may end up with the role that Bill Clinton got -- keeping the Republicans honest and preventing their most blatant give-aways to crony capitalists, degradations of civil liberties, and intellectual fraud from taking hold.

We shall see soon enough what sort of Senator the newest one is... and if he is another DeMint/Chambliss/Coburn/Imhofe clone or stooge of Mike McConnell, then things might not be so great for the Republicans in November. Driving a truck or hunting moose isn't enough to constitute political wisdom.

Republicans have solutions. You can disagree with but they exist: stop spend, low tax, waterboarding terrorists, moral values,... Brown has beaten coakley on issues and republicans will  do the same in november.

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« Reply #3632 on: January 21, 2010, 01:27:49 pm »

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Oh the irony.




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« Reply #3633 on: January 21, 2010, 01:39:53 pm »

Republicans have solutions. You can disagree with but they exist: stop spend, low tax, waterboarding terrorists, moral values,... Brown has beaten coakley on issues and republicans will  do the same in november.

Since when?  I mean, the waterboarding's been done, but I don't think that's a bragging point.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3634 on: January 21, 2010, 01:55:14 pm »
« Edited: January 22, 2010, 10:17:44 am by pbrower2a »

The today rasmussen polls are very bad for obama and democrats. Probably the massach. effect

Good question -- what do the Republicans have to offer? They have been long on carping and short on solutions. The solution that the Republicans usually offer (all for the poor, starving plutocrats and executives -- irony intended) doesn't have such appeal when it appears in real life. Nostalgia for Dubya?

President Obama may have gone as far as he can with a liberal agenda to undo as much of the Dubya-era disaster as possible, and when the economic royalists get their way in November, Obama may end up with the role that Bill Clinton got -- keeping the Republicans honest and preventing their most blatant give-aways to crony capitalists, degradations of civil liberties, and intellectual fraud from taking hold.

We shall see soon enough what sort of Senator the newest one is... and if he is another DeMint/Chambliss/Coburn/Imhofe clone or stooge of Mike McConnell, then things might not be so great for the Republicans in November. Driving a truck or hunting moose isn't enough to constitute political wisdom.

Republicans have solutions. You can disagree with but they exist: stop spend, low tax, waterboarding terrorists, moral values,... Brown has beaten coakley on issues and republicans will  do the same in november.



Not so fast. They have different priorities in spending; they heavily support business subsidies and war profiteering. Low taxes? They simply don't raise taxes on the rich, but they usually find ways to shift taxes onto the non-rich. Waterboarding is torture, and when we torture we lose our moral credibility. People who ordered, authorized, or covered up waterboarding belong in a federal prison, ideally with fellow terrorists such as those that we have arrested for involvement in terrorist acts against the United States and its citizens.

Moral values? Like crony capitalism, Jack Abramoff's rip-offs of Indian tribes, lying about weapons of mass destruction to start a war (a war crime in itself!). Of course I already mentioned waterboarding. There have been some credible reports that some of the so-called suicidal hangings at  Guantanamo were in fact manual strangulation -- hangings don't break the hyoid bone, but strangulation invariably does, which is one way in which some murderers are proved.  The outing of Valerie Plame Wilson after her husband contradicted the President's lie that Iraq under Saddam Hussein had prohibited weapons and weapons programs in 2003. Aldrich Ames and Robert Hanssen rightly rot in a federal prison  for betraying American intelligence agents to the USSR and Russia for personal gain -- shouldn't people rot in prison  for betraying American intelligence agents so that they can corrupt the political process?  

That's before I even discuss marital infidelity (Craig, Vitter, Ensign, Sanford) or personal graft (Cunningham, Nye)

The Dubya era was a moral nadir for America -- one of war-mongering, economic corruption, political intrigue, and intellectual fraud. I hope we remember that in November.

Martha Coakley ran a lackluster campaign. We shall see whether Senator Scott Brown becomes another lockstep GOP hack, and if he does, then that won't look so great in November. He won't be up for re-election, but there will be plenty of Senate seats up.

Of course, if he proves to be a reasonably-independent politician and represents Massachussets values instead of those of hard-right oilmen, ranchers, resource-grabbers, executives, and militarists, then things won't be so bad for Americas. . The GOP used to have such figures as Governor Milliken of Michigan and McCall of Oregon, Senators Brooke, Javits, Weicker, Percy, Chaffee (either one), and Packwood...not to mention Jim Jeffords, and such would be healthy again... but now its stars are people like Saxby Chambliss, Tom Coburn, Jim Imhofe, and Jim DeMint. If Senator Brown takes his direction from Mitch McConnell or becomes a political clone of one of the GOP's Hard Right, then let us hope that the Democrats have a resounding success in November.

I have seen the GOP do it so often in recent times -- find a stealth candidate and have him affect a populist veneer while concealing his loyalty to people who would turn America  into the sort of country in which 90% of the people suffer for 5% and the other 5% are the enforcers of the will of the ruling elite. That's the sort of country many of us had ancestors who fled from -- like Imperial Russia or the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Sicily, feudal principalities in Germany, or Ireland during the potato famine.

We Americans put a stop to that in 2006, and we may prevent its re-appearance in November. God help us if we don't!
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3635 on: January 21, 2010, 02:16:01 pm »

PPP

46/47
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #3636 on: January 21, 2010, 02:28:45 pm »

The today rasmussen polls are very bad for obama and democrats. Probably the massach. effect

Good question -- what do the Republicans have to offer? They have been long on carping and short on solutions. The solution that the Republicans usually offer (all for the poor, starving plutocrats and executives -- irony intended) doesn't have such appeal when it appears in real life. Nostalgia for Dubya?

President Obama may have gone as far as he can with a liberal agenda to undo as much of the Dubya-era disaster as possible, and when the economic royalists get their way in November, Obama may end up with the role that Bill Clinton got -- keeping the Republicans honest and preventing their most blatant give-aways to crony capitalists, degradations of civil liberties, and intellectual fraud from taking hold.

We shall see soon enough what sort of Senator the newest one is... and if he is another DeMint/Chambliss/Coburn/Imhofe clone or stooge of Mike McConnell, then things might not be so great for the Republicans in November. Driving a truck or hunting moose isn't enough to constitute political wisdom.

Republicans have solutions. You can disagree with but they exist: stop spend, low tax, waterboarding terrorists, moral values,... Brown has beaten coakley on issues and republicans will  do the same in november.

Aye. Failed ones. The party which has proudly championed the economics of elite enrichment, middle class emaciation and wage slavery, more or less since the Golden Age of Capitalism (1950-1973) ended, should be wallowing back in purgatory 1934-style for their sins. Because there is nothing moral about any of that

The post-Depression era has proven that Democrats have presided over more robust economic growth; higher levels of job creation; a greater across the board rise in prosperity and fiscal responsibility. The debt as a % of GDP has consistently been reduced under all Democrats from Truman through to Clinton  - and with Obama almost certainty to be the the exception but only in so far as Bush dealt him the sh**ttiest economic hand since that which Hoover dealt FDR. Nothing that came between, good or bad, even comes close

And, far from winning a special Senate election in Massachusetts, if there were any standards whatsoever, the Republican Party would be at death's door
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« Reply #3637 on: January 21, 2010, 02:31:59 pm »

New North Carolina numbers will be out tomorrow, per PPP.  Should be interesting to see where he stands, as he has been performing better (relatively speaking, of course) on the Atlantic Coast than many other parts of the country per recent polling.
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« Reply #3638 on: January 21, 2010, 03:30:19 pm »

GOP morality is almost as much an oxymoron as "Mafia ethics".
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Rowan
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« Reply #3639 on: January 21, 2010, 05:40:16 pm »

Georgia(Rasmussen)

Approve 44%
Disapprove 55%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/georgia/toplines/toplines_georgia_governor_january_20_2010



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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« Reply #3640 on: January 21, 2010, 05:58:53 pm »
« Edited: January 21, 2010, 06:01:23 pm by pbrower2a »

Disaster for Obama in Pennsylvania, but not Georgia:






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.



Go figure.
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« Reply #3641 on: January 21, 2010, 07:58:24 pm »

GOP morality is almost as much an oxymoron as "Mafia ethics".

Wow, you are such a hack.
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« Reply #3642 on: January 22, 2010, 11:12:04 am »

PPP North Carolina

44/50
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« Reply #3643 on: January 22, 2010, 01:10:47 pm »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_122.pdf

That's the source of the new PPP poll stated by Poundingtherock on NC.
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« Reply #3644 on: January 22, 2010, 01:25:06 pm »

Pretty hilarious how poor his approvals are and yet he still crushes Republicans head-to-head. I suppose America just hates everyone right now. Understandable, really.
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« Reply #3645 on: January 22, 2010, 02:07:21 pm »

Pretty hilarious how poor his approvals are and yet he still crushes Republicans head-to-head. I suppose America just hates everyone right now. Understandable, really.

no. Huckabee beats (unfortunatly) him by 1 and Romney is trailing by 2.

And for anti-Rasmussen people:

"In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Georgia, Rasmussen Reports polled on two races during the 2008 campaign. In the race for president, Rasmussen polling showed McCain defeating Obama 52% to 47%, and McCain won 52% to 47%. In the 2008 Georgia Senate race, Rasmussen polling showed Saxby Chambliss leading Jim Martin 50% to 46% in the general election. Chambliss won 50% to 47%.

In the 2006 governorís race, Rasmussen polling showed Perdue beating Mark Taylor 57% to 32%. Perdue won 58% to 38%. In the 2004 presidential race, Rasmussen polling in Georgia showed George W. Bush defeating John Kerry by 15 points, 54% to 39%. Bush won by 17, 58% to 41%. In the 2004 Senate race, Rasmussen polling just before Election Day showed Johnny Isakson leading Denise Majette 54% to 42%. Isakson won 58% to 40%. "
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« Reply #3646 on: January 22, 2010, 02:09:22 pm »


like Rasmussen...

The party id sample is D +1. Seem correct for me (at least for 2010 elections)
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Rowan
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« Reply #3647 on: January 22, 2010, 02:13:43 pm »

North Carolina



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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« Reply #3648 on: January 22, 2010, 02:14:35 pm »

Republicans have solutions. You can disagree with but they exist: stop spend, low tax, waterboarding terrorists, moral values,... Brown has beaten coakley on issues and republicans will  do the same in november.

Since when?  I mean, the waterboarding's been done, but I don't think that's a bragging point.

cfr Brown. I am convinced that majority of the gop (and american people by the way, cfr rasmussen and pew polls) support waterboarding terrorists. And oppose the guantanamo closing. The Brown spokeman has said that it was an important issue in the election (in massach. !!)

waterboarding, don't close guantanamo,... = strong on national security and the war on terror. A great republican value.
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« Reply #3649 on: January 22, 2010, 03:16:21 pm »

Republicans have solutions. You can disagree with but they exist: stop spend, low tax, waterboarding terrorists, moral values,... Brown has beaten coakley on issues and republicans will  do the same in november.

Since when?  I mean, the waterboarding's been done, but I don't think that's a bragging point.

cfr Brown. I am convinced that majority of the gop (and american people by the way, cfr rasmussen and pew polls) support waterboarding terrorists. And oppose the guantanamo closing. The Brown spokeman has said that it was an important issue in the election (in massach. !!)

waterboarding, don't close guantanamo,... = strong on national security and the war on terror. A great republican value.

If a majority of Germans supported persecution of the Jews (if not the Holocaust) in 1939, then would they have been right? When a majority of white people supported segregation and disenfranchisement of blacks with the terrorization of those who opposed those things long into the 1960s, would they have been right? If a majority of people in Salem, Massachusetts in 1692 thought it right to execute "witches", would they have been right?

Waterboarding is torture -- a crime. Jesse Ventura, a (I forget  -- Marine? Special Forces?) veteran said that if he were subjected to waterboarding he would confess to the Tate-LaBianca murders. Heck, I would probably confess to the murder of Bill Clinton (who is very much alive).

We should have closed Guantanamo when evidence leaked of prisoner abuse. It could now be used to house recent denizens of the jail in Port-au-Prince who were given parole by an earthquake that had no legal authority for doing so. The last people that anyone wants on the street in Port-au-Prince would be off the street so that people trying to do humane work would have something less to fear. 

Strong on national security? Sure. Fight the war on terror as resolutely as ever? Of course; al-Qaeda has shown no signs of willingness to moderate its hatred and violence against the United States. We keep our humanity or we ourselves become terrorists.

Silly Rightist -- torture is for despots.
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