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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1027102 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #3850 on: February 12, 2010, 02:07:20 pm »

Who doesn't know about Michigan's unemployment? The problem with them is that many are unapologetically liberal. I hardly call 53% overwhelming support.


Add about 5% and you get a 58-42 split in Michigan, which is how the state voted in 2008. Rasmussen usually polls more GOP-leaning now than other pollsters with his "likely voters" measure. (EPIC is very Republican-leaning... go figure). I can't determine how Rasmussen figures "likely voters" 32 months before a Presidential election, as there will be new young voters, and nobody has cause to believe that they will lean Republican. Some people who will vote in the 2012 election are now fifteen years old, and some who now seem like "likely voters" will be unable to vote in 2012 because they will have died by then. I need not go into the actuarial details.  

Add to that, some of the "slightly disapprove" will choose between what they know (Obama) and what they don't know (some undetermined Republican)... and incumbency has its advantages. People vote against risk, and if they like or accept what they already have in a high office they are not going to vote for someone who "might be a little better".  Of course if they despise the incumbent they will vote against him.

It's not my guess; it's that of Nate Silver, who has estimated through a statistical process of regression that an incumbent will win 50% of the time with the latest nationwide Gallup poll showing approval of 44%. Here's where I take a liberty: where the the incumbent has a statewide approval rating of 44% he has a 50% chance of winning the state in question. The regression line is very steep between 41% and 47%, and below 40% or above 55% it matters little. The problem is that Gallup does few statewide polls, so one must translate such polls as those of Rasmussen to Gallup. Late in 2008 Rasmussen and Gallup were close.

So let's suppose that the last statewide polls for several states are like this for Obama:

State               Approval*      Likelihood of a win     Estimated percentage

AL                        34%                 NO WAY                        38%
OK                       39%                 NO WAY                         44%
KS                        41%                 NO WAY                        46%
WV                       42%                UNLIKELY                       47%
IN                         43%                 SLIGHT                          48%
NC                        44%                  EVEN                            49%
OH                       45%                  GOOD                            50%
CO                       46%                  HIGH                             51%
VA                        47%                  HIGH                             52%
IA                         48%                 HIGH                              52%
PA                        49%              NEAR-CERTAIN                  53%  
MI                        50%              NEAR-CERTAIN                  54%
CT                        51%                 CERTAIN                        55%
NY                        55%                 CERTAIN                        59%
VT                        66%                 CERTAIN                         70%      


I do not predict that states will have such approval ratings around November 1, 2012. This one suggests a close election. If you want a model that shows an Obama loss, then make your own.





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3851 on: February 12, 2010, 02:37:48 pm »

Here's a change in the color pattern: the two strongest categories of disapproval will be orange. Reason: legibility. Anything above 50% yellow or orange is brown, which makes the letter illegible.

Louisiana is updated.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

.....

Comments will be welcome.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3852 on: February 12, 2010, 02:45:47 pm »

I prefer your dark yellow, Pbrower, but its up to you.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3853 on: February 13, 2010, 01:04:19 am »

I prefer your dark yellow, Pbrower, but its up to you.

I think it`s better with the orange showing the low approvals.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3854 on: February 13, 2010, 01:08:39 am »

Obama's "favorable" rating is 39% in the new NY Times poll.  See question #14.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Obama_Congress_021110.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3855 on: February 13, 2010, 02:08:22 am »
« Edited: February 13, 2010, 02:12:54 am by pbrower2a »


That's not what I read:

PRESIDENT OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL RATING


                    Now 1/18/2010 1/11/2010 12/2009 10/2009 4/2009
Approve        46%      50%         46%         50%        56%     68%
Disapprove   45         40             41            39           34         23

The other (Q14)  is a "favorability" rating that splits 39% favorable, 34% unfavorable, 19% undecided... I would never use such a stat on my map because of the huge number of "undecided".  This thread is about approval - not favorability. 

So long as approval is above disapproval, Obama is OK. It's not bad considering that we have an two incomplete wars and a shaky recovery -- thank you George W. Bush for those. 
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3856 on: February 13, 2010, 02:18:40 am »

Pbrower,

The problem is that you accused me in the other thread of having my facts wrong when my assertion that the NY Times poll showed Obama at 39% favorables to be absolutely correct.

So why not take back your assertion that I was wrong.

Your argument that approval/disapproval is more important than favorable/unfavorable is reasonable but that doesn't change the fact that you were wrong in claiming that I was wrong about Obama's favorable/unfavorable rating in the NY Times poll. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3857 on: February 13, 2010, 11:18:29 am »
« Edited: February 14, 2010, 11:50:24 am by pbrower2a »

Pbrower,

The problem is that you accused me in the other thread of having my facts wrong when my assertion that the NY Times poll showed Obama at 39% favorables to be absolutely correct.

So why not take back your assertion that I was wrong.

Your argument that approval/disapproval is more important than favorable/unfavorable is reasonable but that doesn't change the fact that you were wrong in claiming that I was wrong about Obama's favorable/unfavorable rating in the NY Times poll.  

1. Unless you miss the title of this thread, it is approval and not favorability -- you miss the point.

2. If you have been looking at the maps (mine or those of Rowan Brandon) for approval of President Obama, you will typically see a favorable-unfavorable  distinction. Ordinarily favorable and unfavorable add up to something near 100%, so if you see "Texas 37% approve, 63% disapprove among likely voters" and "California 54% approve, 45% disapprove among likely voters", we are talking about the same phenomenon in two different states. That's one way of assessing whether President Obama has been gaining or losing constituencies in the various states while President.

3. Favorability seems to imply whether people like the person; approval seems to imply whether people like the result. We still have a shaky recovery from the most dangerous situation of economics since the Great Depression, and we still have two ugly wars going on. How many of us expect otherwise?

A President with a legislative agenda and tough decisions to make must either step on some toes or achieve nothing, and such would be so whether we had a conservative or a liberal as President.

One of the tough decisions is knowing when politics ends and administration begins. President Obama has stayed away from Pennsylvania as long as it has a contested primary for the US Senate. His approvals in the state have been poor in contrast to those in states that he won by similar or even slighter margins in 2008. Once the Democratic primary for the US Senate seat is over, he will start making appearances in Pennsylvania in part to aid the Senate campaign of the Democratic nominee... and then watch his approval ratings in Pennsylvania go up toward those that one would expect in such places as Wisconsin.   (I think that he is making the right choice there, and if the Democrats hold on to a Senate seat in Pennsylvania, such is worth some low approval ratings now.

4. President Obama became President with a huge cultural divide. 47% of all voters voted for the Republican, and most of those who voted for John McCain had misgivings about President Obama from the start. Such a cultural divide does not disappear by itself. Should he get the desired results in Iraq (nearly achieved) and Afghanistan (analogous surge)  and the economy become more normal, many of those misgivings disappear. That might lead to an electoral disaster for Republicans in 2010 and 2012, but I could imagine worse for America if I were a Republican.

5. Recent polls ask whether President Barack Obama is doing the job adequately; recent polls involving Sarah Palin ask whether she is fit to be President.


  

 

  
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3858 on: February 14, 2010, 02:15:44 am »

http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/statesman/pdf/02/021410_poll_results.pdf

Obama: 40/48 in Texas
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3859 on: February 14, 2010, 03:23:46 am »
« Edited: February 14, 2010, 03:28:08 am by Mr. Morden »

1. I have no idea of which is more reliable: favorability or approval. I know that there is a difference, and when I see a poll that has both favorability and approval I average them.

And this thread is called "The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread". I think you have an answer.
Approval and favorability differ by little -- 1-2%, which is less than the usual differences between pollsters and certain criteria of selecting "voters" -- adults, registered voters, or "likely voters". A 1-2% difference is within the usual margin of error. The difference between approval and favorability is slight enough for me.

1. Unless you miss the title of this thread, it is approval and not favorability -- you miss the point.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3860 on: February 14, 2010, 08:54:54 am »

Texas, again:


http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/statesman/pdf/02/021410_poll_results.pdf

40% approval, 48% disapproval, 12% undecided.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3861 on: February 14, 2010, 01:55:34 pm »

Gallup: 53% Approve, 40% Disapprove (+1, -1, best net positive rating since November)

Rasmussen: 47% Approve, 51% Disapprove (+2, -2)
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3862 on: February 14, 2010, 01:56:58 pm »

Both Rasmussen and Gallup are outliers if you look at the RCP averages.
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TheGreatOne
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« Reply #3863 on: February 14, 2010, 02:02:51 pm »

These polls are flawed anyway.  I could be a flaming liberal and disapprove of Obama because he hasn't been as liberal as I'd like him to be.   But during the election I would more than likely vote for him. 
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3864 on: February 14, 2010, 02:04:18 pm »

That doesn't appear to be the case as his approval among liberals in most of the polling remains high.

PPP(D) has shot down the notion that liberals are the ones upset at Obama.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #3865 on: February 14, 2010, 02:43:34 pm »

Zogby Poll:

Approve - 31%
Disapprove - 64%

Obama to announce resignation on 22/06/10.
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Jasengle
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« Reply #3866 on: February 14, 2010, 04:35:09 pm »

Obama won't win in 2012
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3867 on: February 14, 2010, 05:27:38 pm »


Please explain.



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Jbrase
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« Reply #3868 on: February 14, 2010, 05:29:36 pm »

Zogby Poll:

Approve - 31%
Disapprove - 64%

Obama to announce resignation on 22/06/10.
The best birthday present ever! Smiley
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3869 on: February 14, 2010, 06:16:46 pm »

I'd like to see some polls of these states and Congressional districts:

Maine
Montana
New Mexico
South Carolina
Tennessee
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming

NE-01
NE-02

DC, Hawaii, Mississippi, and Vermont seem to never get polled.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3870 on: February 14, 2010, 06:41:48 pm »

Zogby Poll:

Approve - 31%
Disapprove - 64%

Obama to announce resignation on 22/06/10.

That is great, outstanding.  Obama is finished.  Oh, wait ......

It's Zogby!

Smiley
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change08
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« Reply #3871 on: February 14, 2010, 08:53:42 pm »

Zogby Poll:

Approve - 31%
Disapprove - 64%

Obama to announce resignation on 22/06/10.

Source?
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Zarn
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« Reply #3872 on: February 14, 2010, 08:55:06 pm »

Source for which?
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change08
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« Reply #3873 on: February 14, 2010, 08:56:10 pm »


I was asking for a source for that Zogby poll.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #3874 on: February 14, 2010, 09:56:39 pm »

Zogby Poll:

Approve - 31%
Disapprove - 64%

Obama to announce resignation on 22/06/10.
The best birthday present ever! Smiley

That's my birthday too! That would be a good birthday present.
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