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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1028755 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #3900 on: February 18, 2010, 09:07:57 am »

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 50 or above on Rass? What's this bounce in aid of? The taliban leader who was found?

It could be. Note that the captive is the Taliban's top military leader. Such likely throws the Taliban into disarray and makes its defeat more likely.

Good news gets good polling results even if the President has little to do with the cause of the good news. Does he seem to be the sort to try to micro-manage the generals?  Of course we have yet to know the whole story.  
If we lose a single airliner, look for Obama's approval to drop 10 points overnight as he loses the women's vote.  If something worse happens, Obama will all but officially become a lame duck and will have a challenger to the 2012 Dem nomination.



I still don't get that arguement. You know what happened to Bush's approvals after 9/11, right?

BTW, PPP's monthly head-to-head's are due tomorrow.

Nobody in the public was really expecting a terrorist attack (though we should have been).  We are now and Biden's recent comments won't help, if there is one.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3901 on: February 18, 2010, 01:01:47 pm »

Rasmussen poll of Indiana:

44% Approve
54% Disapprove

Pretty good numbers for O there, as I don't believe there is anyone who thinks he can win that state again.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/indiana/election_2010_indiana_senate
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3902 on: February 18, 2010, 02:28:03 pm »

Rasmussen poll of Indiana:

44% Approve
54% Disapprove

Pretty good numbers for O there, as I don't believe there is anyone who thinks he can win that state again.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/indiana/election_2010_indiana_senate

No category change, but it is at the top of the category. A bit higher than Pennsylvania? Probably not for long.

He can, but I wouldn't bet even money on Indiana except in a 35+ state landslide. I predict that he will campaign for the Democratic candidate for the open Senate seat in November. Should there be an open Senate seat in Indiana in 2012 (Lugar will be 80) he will campaign again on behalf of the Democratic nominee for Senate.   

President Obama would lose to Mitch Daniels there, but 44% approval suggests about a 50-50 chance of winning against just about anyone else (and I don't mean Sarah Palin).  The Republicans can't afford to have Indiana as a "competitive" state -- which it looks like in 2012.   






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

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Cory Booker
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« Reply #3903 on: February 18, 2010, 03:28:23 pm »

If there was one Democrat that can challenge Obama effectively and win like a Russ Feingold, I would vote for him over Obama in the primary.  Obama hasn't governed the way a lot of has hoped.  But I am still willing to wait until the fall to see what happens.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3904 on: February 18, 2010, 04:34:08 pm »

PPP 2-17-2010

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_2181205.pdf

Nationwide poll:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve................. 48%
Disapprove............ 47%
Not Sure................ 6%

Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama, who
would you vote for? If Mike Huckabee, press
1. If Barack Obama, press 2. If you’re not
sure, press 3.
Huckabee........................................................ 43%
Obama............................................................ 46%
Not Sure.......................................................... 11%

Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Sarah Palin and Barack Obama, who would
you vote for? If Sarah Palin, press 1. If Barack
Obama, press 2. If you're not sure, press 3.
Palin................................................................ 43%
Obama............................................................ 50%
Not Sure.......................................................... 7%

Q12 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
John Thune and Barack Obama, who would
you vote for? If John Thune, press 1. If
Barack Obama, press 2. If you’re undecided,
press 3.
Thune 28%
Obama 46%
Not Sure 26%

Q13 If the candidates for President next time were
Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, who would
you vote for? If Mitt Romney, press 1. If
Barack Obama, press 2. If you’re not sure,
press 3.
Romney .......................................................... 43%
Obama............................................................ 45%
Not Sure.......................................................... 12%

Q14 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama,
press 2. If someone else or you don’t
remember, press 3.
McCain............................................................ 46%
Obama............................................................ 51%
Someone else/don't remember ....................... 3%


My comment: Senator John Thune is not well known. Such has advantages -- and disadvantages.  Rounding may cause totals that fail to add to 100%.
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Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
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« Reply #3905 on: February 18, 2010, 04:49:00 pm »

PPP 2-17-2010
Q12 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
John Thune and Barack Obama, who would
you vote for? If John Thune, press 1. If
Barack Obama, press 2. If you’re undecided,
press 3.
Thune 28%
Obama 46%
Not Sure 26%

Thune is only known by political junkies, so it is surprising Obama only pulled 46% and, IMO, may show the rest of the GOP is damaged goods
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #3906 on: February 18, 2010, 04:59:39 pm »

Rasmussen Virginia:

48% approve
51% disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/virginia/65_of_virginia_voters_approve_of_mcdonnell_so_far

McDonnell approvals in that same poll are 65\29
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Rowan
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« Reply #3907 on: February 18, 2010, 04:59:51 pm »

Wisconsin(Rasmussen)
Approve 47%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/wisconsin/toplines/toplines_wisconsin_senate_february_17_2010

Virginia(Rasmussen)
Approve 48%
Disapprove 51%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_february_16_2010

Indiana updated as well.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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change08
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« Reply #3908 on: February 18, 2010, 05:14:07 pm »


hahaha. Just... no. Tongue
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Vepres
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« Reply #3909 on: February 18, 2010, 06:32:59 pm »

Oregon is at Rasmussen's national average?

I imagine, given the small number of undecideds, that when they pressured independents into to picking one, they chose disapprove. Also keep in mind that while parts of the state are very very liberal, there is also a large part of the state that is very conservative.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3910 on: February 18, 2010, 07:15:28 pm »

Rasmussen poll of Indiana:

44% Approve
54% Disapprove

Pretty good numbers for O there, as I don't believe there is anyone who thinks he can win that state again.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/indiana/election_2010_indiana_senate

Uhh, I think he can, that doesn't mean he will.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3911 on: February 19, 2010, 01:26:46 am »

Iowa - R2000/KCCI Des Moines:

49% Approve
46% Disapprove

52% Favorable
41% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Iowa Poll was conducted from February 15 through February 17, 2010. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

http://www.kcci.com/news/22602994/detail.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3912 on: February 19, 2010, 02:47:01 am »


Iowa, Virginia (very welcome), and Wisconsin updated:





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.


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Rowan
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« Reply #3913 on: February 19, 2010, 08:28:37 am »

Iowa.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Rowan
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« Reply #3914 on: February 19, 2010, 08:38:24 am »

California(SurveyUSA)
Approve 59%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=6f26c88d-dff4-4638-bf13-5f254c430dca




30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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J. J.
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« Reply #3915 on: February 19, 2010, 09:36:54 am »

Rasmussen O numbers: 

48% Approve
   

51% Disapprove

No real change.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3916 on: February 19, 2010, 01:39:50 pm »

Kansas (SurveyUSA)Sad

35% Approve
62% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c7eab6fe-0d82-4c93-b377-808fc71c82cb

Oregon (SurveyUSA)Sad

53% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0a8d5ad0-690b-4e32-825e-5b77e5893534

Washington (SurveyUSA)Sad

49% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2aa67672-d9c9-4feb-82d4-3e714866f99f
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Rowan
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« Reply #3917 on: February 19, 2010, 02:24:55 pm »
« Edited: February 19, 2010, 04:30:24 pm by RowanBrandon »

North Carolina(PPP)
Approve 45%
Disapprove 51%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_219.pdf

Washington and Kansas updated. Oregon is not updated because the Rasmussen poll is more recent.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3918 on: February 19, 2010, 02:27:50 pm »

Kansas update, where Obama has no reasonable chance to win; no change in Washington or Oregon because of averaging with polls from this week. North Carolina update without change.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.



When do we get the New Mexico or Vermont poll?
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Umengus
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« Reply #3919 on: February 19, 2010, 02:36:51 pm »

California(SurveyUSA)
Approve 59%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=6f26c88d-dff4-4638-bf13-5f254c430dca




adult, not LV or RV.

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3920 on: February 19, 2010, 03:12:46 pm »

Rasmussen (Oregon)Sad

53% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/oregon/toplines/toplines_oregon_governor_february_17_2010
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3921 on: February 19, 2010, 04:11:13 pm »

North Carolina(PPP)
Approve 45%
Disapprove 51%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_219.pdf

Washington and Kansas updated. Oregon is not updated because the Rasmussen poll is more recent.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

VA should be a lighter shade.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3922 on: February 19, 2010, 04:27:41 pm »

Gallup and Rasmussen at 48% today.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3923 on: February 19, 2010, 04:31:00 pm »


You're right. Don't know what happened there.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3924 on: February 20, 2010, 01:08:56 am »

Vermont - R2000/WCAX-TV:

63% Approve
33% Disapprove

This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters were interviewed statewide by telephone between February 14 and February 16, 2010.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or region.

http://www.wcax.com/Global/story.asp?S=12011903
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