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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1006226 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #4275 on: March 24, 2010, 07:01:05 pm »

Ohio (PPP)Sad

40% Approve
53% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 630 Ohio voters on March 20th and 21st. The margin of error for the survey
is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/03/tough-times-for-dems-in-midwest.html

Perhaps by now as obsolete as the weather forecast of the day.  Not a fault of the poll.

Yes, it's wrong. It's impossible for Obama to have net disapproval now. Toss this junk!

I would not be surprised if approval for President Obama is back to about 48% now but such would have been unlikely  on March 21, when Obama's approval was at its lowest,
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4276 on: March 25, 2010, 12:52:28 am »

Florida (Rasmussen)Sad

43% Approve
55% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, March 18, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/florida/toplines/toplines_florida_senate_march_18_2010

North Carolina (Rasmussen)Sad

42% Approve
57% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, March 22, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/north_carolina/toplines/toplines_2010_north_carolina_senate_march_22_2010

Tennessee (Rasmussen)Sad

36% Approve
62% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Tennessee was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, March 22, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/tennessee/toplines/toplines_tennessee_governor_march_22_2010
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4277 on: March 25, 2010, 12:55:12 am »

North Carolina (PPP)Sad

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 878 North Carolina voters from March 12th to 15th. The survey’s margin
of error is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_324.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4278 on: March 25, 2010, 01:37:29 am »

California (PPIC)Sad

Adults: 58% Approve, 35% Disapprove
RV: 56% Approve, 39% Disapprove
LV: 52% Approve, 43% Disapprove

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, March 2010. Includes 2,002 adults, 1,574 registered voters, and 1,102 likely voters. Interviews took place March 9–16, 2010. Margin of error ±2%.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0310.pdf
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Smid
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« Reply #4279 on: March 25, 2010, 02:55:29 am »


Good to see!
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The Voice of America
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« Reply #4280 on: March 25, 2010, 04:02:22 am »

Based upon the 2010 projections and current approval ratings in the 40% range, if the election were held today, the Republican would win with about 338 electoral votes.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4281 on: March 25, 2010, 04:50:19 am »

More polls from during the HCR debate:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

Valid polls, if obsolete. They show President Obama as a one-term President and the Democrats losing both Houses of Congress. These polls and other recent ones are all consistent with Presidential approval around 42%. At that point, just about any Republican could win the Presidency, and it would be wise for President Obama to scrap HCR in favor of tax cuts or even complete exemption for the super-rich. For liberals, this would be a good time to do some soul-searching and either join the vanguard of history, go underground, or emigrate.

For good reason I don't rely upon yesterday's newspaper for the current sports score.  The Big Game has been played. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #4282 on: March 25, 2010, 09:04:09 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%

Disapprove 51% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 32%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, unchanged.

The only really significant movement is in "Strongly Approve."

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Iosif
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« Reply #4283 on: March 25, 2010, 09:13:12 am »

An 8 point swing in 5 days.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4284 on: March 25, 2010, 09:26:18 am »

Based upon the 2010 projections and current approval ratings in the 40% range, if the election were held today, the Republican would win with about 338 electoral votes.

No.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4285 on: March 25, 2010, 10:46:49 am »

Corrected:

Based upon the 2010 projections and current week-old and now obsolete approval ratings in the 40% range, if the election were held today a week ago , the Republican would win have won with about 338 electoral votes.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4286 on: March 25, 2010, 10:49:27 am »

I'm back!



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

I still want to know how in hell the Northwest is in Red.

Some recent polls, at Obama's lowest point of approval ever about a week ago, showed Presidential approval under 50% with larger disapproval in Washington and Oregon. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4287 on: March 25, 2010, 11:18:21 am »
« Edited: March 25, 2010, 11:20:05 am by pbrower2a »

Ohio (PPP)Sad

40% Approve
53% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 630 Ohio voters on March 20th and 21st. The margin of error for the survey
is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/03/tough-times-for-dems-in-midwest.html

Perhaps by now as obsolete as the weather forecast of the day.  Not a fault of the poll.

Yes, it's wrong. It's impossible for Obama to have net disapproval now. Toss this junk!

I would not be surprised if approval for President Obama is back to about 48% now but such would have been unlikely  on March 21, when Obama's approval was at its lowest,

What do you know!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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This is a three-day average, and it is all after the House voting for the HCR bill.

I assume that that means "likely voters", which Rasmussen usually shows.  I am not taking any credit for accuracy of my prediction.

Recent polls such as those that showed Obama support at 40% in Ohio, 39% in Indiana, 43% in Florida, and 42% in North Carolina -- swing states of 2008 -- are probably more like 46%, 45%, 49%, and 48%, respectively (simple calculation -- add 6% for the jump in the polls). Those are Rasmussen polls, so I am comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges. I can also expect some of the recent sub-50% polls in Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin to be blasted to smithereens. If such is not so, then President Obama has been gaining elsewhere. It is unlikely that the President has 130% support in Vermont or 53% support in Texas.

State approval polls usually lag national tracking polls.

I am not surprised that the the disapproval remains high. FoX News, upon which American right-wingers largely rely upon for news, gave only 23 seconds of time to the President signing the most important piece of legislation in about 45 years. It isn't the Great Society legislation or the 1964 Civil Rights Act, but it is more similar in significance.

I have no asterisks yet for late-March polls, but as you can see I am not tossing any polls yet. Those were valid at the time, and some will be supplanted.


 
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J. J.
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« Reply #4288 on: March 25, 2010, 12:01:50 pm »


On Approve (+5), Disapprove (-4), Strongly Disapprove (-2), no.  Add to that one set of numbers looks like a skewed anti-Obama number (A/D 44/56), as was noted at the time, it is not much movement on those three.

Strongly Approved, however, has shown substantial movement.  Total range has been +9 points, and even factoring out the possible skewed sample, it would be a +6 gain. 

Also note that the upswing started a few days prior to Obamacare being passed.
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« Reply #4289 on: March 25, 2010, 02:19:14 pm »

Obama has gained back his base and that is good news for the democrats in 2010. Of course it all depends on what the definition of "good news" is. I still think they will lose up to 30 seats in the house, and maybe more, but it won't be anything ridiculous like 50-60 seats. If the economy really starts booming and some good jobs numbers come out (like +150-200k jobs at the least), the democrats may be able to contain their losses to just around 20-25. This is not likely though.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4290 on: March 25, 2010, 03:30:56 pm »

Obama has gained back his base and that is good news for the democrats in 2010. Of course it all depends on what the definition of "good news" is. I still think they will lose up to 30 seats in the house, and maybe more, but it won't be anything ridiculous like 50-60 seats. If the economy really starts booming and some good jobs numbers come out (like +150-200k jobs at the least), the democrats may be able to contain their losses to just around 20-25. This is not likely though.

32% is better than 23%.  (I actually LOLed at your post, though I agree with it.)

There are some problems, however.

That "strongly disapproved" number is still very high.  It has been lower in the last fortnight and looks solid.  Those are people that say, "I hate Obama's guts."  That is still out there, and Obamacare didn't help.  At best, this stopped liberal leakage (I think "hemorrhaging" was too strong.)

Second, there are other issues, notably the economy.  Obamacare has not helped with that, and may easily be charged with only pushing his agenda.

I was looking at 30-35 initially, but now would say a 50% that the House is captured by the GOP.
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« Reply #4291 on: March 25, 2010, 04:21:01 pm »

Obama has gained back his base and that is good news for the democrats in 2010. Of course it all depends on what the definition of "good news" is. I still think they will lose up to 30 seats in the house, and maybe more, but it won't be anything ridiculous like 50-60 seats. If the economy really starts booming and some good jobs numbers come out (like +150-200k jobs at the least), the democrats may be able to contain their losses to just around 20-25. This is not likely though.

32% is better than 23%.  (I actually LOLed at your post, though I agree with it.)

There are some problems, however.

That "strongly disapproved" number is still very high.  It has been lower in the last fortnight and looks solid.  Those are people that say, "I hate Obama's guts."  That is still out there, and Obamacare didn't help.  At best, this stopped liberal leakage (I think "hemorrhaging" was too strong.)

Second, there are other issues, notably the economy.  Obamacare has not helped with that, and may easily be charged with only pushing his agenda.

I was looking at 30-35 initially, but now would say a 50% that the House is captured by the GOP.

How big do you figure the Bradley Effect will be this year? 3-5%?
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J. J.
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« Reply #4292 on: March 25, 2010, 04:32:43 pm »

Obama has gained back his base and that is good news for the democrats in 2010. Of course it all depends on what the definition of "good news" is. I still think they will lose up to 30 seats in the house, and maybe more, but it won't be anything ridiculous like 50-60 seats. If the economy really starts booming and some good jobs numbers come out (like +150-200k jobs at the least), the democrats may be able to contain their losses to just around 20-25. This is not likely though.

32% is better than 23%.  (I actually LOLed at your post, though I agree with it.)

There are some problems, however.

That "strongly disapproved" number is still very high.  It has been lower in the last fortnight and looks solid.  Those are people that say, "I hate Obama's guts."  That is still out there, and Obamacare didn't help.  At best, this stopped liberal leakage (I think "hemorrhaging" was too strong.)

Second, there are other issues, notably the economy.  Obamacare has not helped with that, and may easily be charged with only pushing his agenda.

I was looking at 30-35 initially, but now would say a 50% that the House is captured by the GOP.

How big do you figure the Bradley Effect will be this year? 3-5%?

Possibly the same one that Nate Silver predicted, since his numbers were at 50% Roll Eyes
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4293 on: March 25, 2010, 07:10:15 pm »
« Edited: March 25, 2010, 10:44:45 pm by pbrower2a »

North Dakota -- first asterisk for a state poll associated entirely in the HCR era (March 25).

It's from Rasmussen, so don't complain, conservatives!

Rasmussen, 44/55, and a category change:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

Sure, it's "only" North Dakota, with only 3 electoral votes, but no Democratic Presidential nominee has won the state since 1964.  Obama lost the state by 9%.

I doubt that we will see cause to remove any asterisk.

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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #4294 on: March 25, 2010, 08:22:22 pm »

pbrower, when you post links, can you not simply post the URL? Use this code:
Code:
[url=Put URL here]Put state and pollster here[url]

Otherwise, the page becomes wide and unreadable.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4295 on: March 25, 2010, 10:16:56 pm »

pbrower, when you post links, can you not simply post the URL? Use this code:
Code:
[url=Put URL here]Put state and pollster here[url]

Otherwise, the page becomes wide and unreadable.

OK. It bears repeating.


North Dakota, Rasmussen

44% Approve

55% Disapprove...

President Obama doesn't win either of the Dakotas with fewer than about 400 electoral votes.

   



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« Reply #4296 on: March 25, 2010, 10:40:50 pm »

Thanks!

It'd be appreciated if you could also edit the post above mine in the same way, so that this page stays narrow.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4297 on: March 26, 2010, 09:01:36 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49% +1

Disapprove 51%


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

Obamacare probably rallied the base.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4298 on: March 26, 2010, 10:02:56 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49% +1

Disapprove 51%


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

Obamacare probably rallied the base.



Obama would win with that. Add about 3% to the "Approve" and you get a fair estimate of the vote. A reason: many of those who disapprove of him as President will find no viable alternative among Republicans and will either not vote or will vote for a third-party candidate.

 
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J. J.
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« Reply #4299 on: March 26, 2010, 01:16:58 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49% +1

Disapprove 51%


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

Obamacare probably rallied the base.



Obama would win with that. Add about 3% to the "Approve" and you get a fair estimate of the vote. A reason: many of those who disapprove of him as President will find no viable alternative among Republicans and will either not vote or will vote for a third-party candidate.

 

I'm just reporting, not predicting the general, which is about 2 1/2 years away.
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