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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1006841 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #4300 on: March 26, 2010, 01:18:07 pm »

Gallup is bizarre, Approve is -1, Disapprove is +2.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4301 on: March 26, 2010, 01:20:26 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49% +1

Disapprove 51%


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

Obamacare probably rallied the base.



Obama would win with that. Add about 3% to the "Approve" and you get a fair estimate of the vote. A reason: many of those who disapprove of him as President will find no viable alternative among Republicans and will either not vote or will vote for a third-party candidate.

 

I'm just reporting, not predicting the general, which is about 2 1/2 years away.

Sure. Much will happen in the next 31 months and that will decide the 2012 election. I have simply said that 49% approval results in an Obama win at election time.
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Rowan
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« Reply #4302 on: March 26, 2010, 02:23:19 pm »
« Edited: March 26, 2010, 02:25:22 pm by RowanBrandon »

Hawaii(Rasmussen)

Approve 77%
Disapprove 23%

NC, TN, ND and FL updated as well.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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« Reply #4303 on: March 26, 2010, 02:30:27 pm »

Hawaii(Rasmussen)

Approve 77%
Disapprove 23%

NC, TN, ND and FL updated as well.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Oh wow, somewhere actually higher than those who voted for him.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #4304 on: March 26, 2010, 02:50:24 pm »

Hawaii(Rasmussen)

Approve 77%
Disapprove 23%

NC, TN, ND and FL updated as well.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Oh wow, somewhere actually higher than those who voted for him.
It's the "Age Wave" that's doing it, along with HCR. By the end of next week, Obama's approval ratings will be around 60%, and above 50% in every state except Oklahoma and Alabama.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #4305 on: March 26, 2010, 03:00:51 pm »

Hawaii(Rasmussen)

Approve 77%
Disapprove 23%

NC, TN, ND and FL updated as well.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

A bit strange that SC's approval ratings are higher than NC.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #4306 on: March 26, 2010, 03:10:50 pm »


What the hell happened to Hawaii? It was relatively close in 2004, and now Obama has sky high approval ratings there, and the health care plan also gets a 66\26 approval.
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MArepublican
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« Reply #4307 on: March 26, 2010, 03:11:17 pm »

Hawaii(Rasmussen)

Approve 77%
Disapprove 23%

NC, TN, ND and FL updated as well.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

A bit strange that SC's approval ratings are higher than NC.
There is no way they are he included a horrible poll of South Carolina.
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ScottM
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« Reply #4308 on: March 26, 2010, 03:14:06 pm »


What the hell happened to Hawaii? It was relatively close in 2004, and now Obama has sky high approval ratings there, and the health care plan also gets a 66\26 approval.

A couple of things, I think. John Kerry wasn't a particularly strong candidate, imho, and Obama is originally from Hawaii.
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« Reply #4309 on: March 26, 2010, 04:11:17 pm »


What the hell happened to Hawaii? It was relatively close in 2004, and now Obama has sky high approval ratings there, and the health care plan also gets a 66\26 approval.

A couple of things, I think. John Kerry wasn't a particularly strong candidate, imho, and Obama is originally from Hawaii.
It's a Freedom State.
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« Reply #4310 on: March 26, 2010, 04:15:56 pm »


What the hell happened to Hawaii? It was relatively close in 2004, and now Obama has sky high approval ratings there, and the health care plan also gets a 66\26 approval.

A couple of things, I think. John Kerry wasn't a particularly strong candidate, imho, and Obama is originally from Hawaii.
It's a Freedom Horrible, Slave Mentality State.
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« Reply #4311 on: March 26, 2010, 04:19:30 pm »

Gallup is bizarre, Approve is -1, Disapprove is +2.

It is proably adding to the disapproval from undecided
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« Reply #4312 on: March 26, 2010, 04:20:03 pm »


What the hell happened to Hawaii? It was relatively close in 2004, and now Obama has sky high approval ratings there, and the health care plan also gets a 66\26 approval.

A couple of things, I think. John Kerry wasn't a particularly strong candidate, imho, and Obama is originally from Hawaii.
It's a Freedom Horrible, Slave Mentality State.
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Zarn
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« Reply #4313 on: March 26, 2010, 04:22:09 pm »


What the hell happened to Hawaii? It was relatively close in 2004, and now Obama has sky high approval ratings there, and the health care plan also gets a 66\26 approval.

A couple of things, I think. John Kerry wasn't a particularly strong candidate, imho, and Obama is originally from Hawaii.
It's a Freedom Horrible, Slave Mentality State.
Agreed.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4314 on: March 26, 2010, 04:57:37 pm »

Hawaii, first time in a long time. 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

Again, it's "only" Hawaii.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4315 on: March 26, 2010, 11:57:32 pm »


What the hell happened to Hawaii? It was relatively close in 2004, and now Obama has sky high approval ratings there, and the health care plan also gets a 66\26 approval.

They finally believe he was born there?  Wink
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J. J.
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« Reply #4316 on: March 27, 2010, 12:01:44 am »

Gallup is bizarre, Approve is -1, Disapprove is +2.

It is proably adding to the disapproval from undecided

His "approval" dropped as well.  I have no idea what has happened to Gallup.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4317 on: March 27, 2010, 12:10:22 am »


What the hell happened to Hawaii? It was relatively close in 2004, and now Obama has sky high approval ratings there, and the health care plan also gets a 66\26 approval.

Hawai'i is intensely pro-incumbent, especially among the Asian/Pacific Islander populations.
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Roy Rogers McFreely
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« Reply #4318 on: March 27, 2010, 02:44:59 am »


What the hell happened to Hawaii? It was relatively close in 2004, and now Obama has sky high approval ratings there, and the health care plan also gets a 66\26 approval.

Hawai'i is intensely pro-incumbent, especially among the Asian/Pacific Islander populations.

And that's one of his two home states.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4319 on: March 27, 2010, 10:36:26 am »

For what it's worth (it is a favorability poll from Research2000 through the Daily Kos ) :

Daily Kos Weekly State of the Nation Poll
Research 2000, Adults MoE 2.8%, Mar 22, 2010 - Mar 25, 2010 (last week's results in parentheses)

                            FAVORABLE   UNFAVORABLE   DON'T KNOW   NET CHANGE
PRESIDENT OBAMA     56 (53)                39 (41)         5 (6)                5

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklytrends
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« Reply #4320 on: March 27, 2010, 10:39:30 am »

For what it's worth (it is a favorability poll from Research2000 through the Daily Kos ) :

Daily Kos Weekly State of the Nation Poll
Research 2000, Adults MoE 2.8%, Mar 22, 2010 - Mar 25, 2010 (last week's results in parentheses)

                            FAVORABLE   UNFAVORABLE   DON'T KNOW   NET CHANGE
PRESIDENT OBAMA     56 (53)                39 (41)         5 (6)                5

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklytrends

It's gonna be funny when every blue avatar here shoots you down for posting that.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4321 on: March 27, 2010, 10:59:44 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% -2

Disapprove 53% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

The one thing for sure that Obamacare did was was rally Obama's base; the "strongly approve" numbers arguably jumped 5-10 points.  This might have increased his overall "approve" numbers, at least short term, by 2-5 point.

It does not look, other than an ephemeral bump, to have moved Obama's disapproval numbers in either direction.
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MArepublican
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« Reply #4322 on: March 27, 2010, 03:20:24 pm »

Gallup
Approval 48 (-2)
Disapproval 45 (+1)
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J. J.
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« Reply #4323 on: March 27, 2010, 03:41:37 pm »
« Edited: March 27, 2010, 04:02:51 pm by J. J. »

Gallup
Approval 48 (-2)
Disapproval 45 (+1)

Okay, so according to Gallup, Obama is in a decline, probably a tailspin, that will result 150 Democrats losing their House seats, a 15 seat loss in the Senate.  Obama losing re-election, and then being deported, when they find his birth certificate in Estonia!

Yes, I'm being sarcastic, but come on.  The only thing there that looks normal is a relatively stable disapproval rate (42%-45%).

If this keeps up, I'm going back to looking at Zogby.  Roll Eyes
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4324 on: March 27, 2010, 07:57:59 pm »

Gallup
Approval 48 (-2)
Disapproval 45 (+1)

This is the latest daily poll (March 25), not to be confused with the latest weekly poll:


Quote
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Any poll before the HCR vote is now obsolete. I now think that the North Dakota poll (44%) is more reliable than the most recent polls for Indiana (39%), North Carolina (42%), and Florida (43%) -- all by Rasmussen. The difference is one week, and a week makes a huge difference. I would expect Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida to be about 2%, 3%, and 4% less Democratic than the US on a whole and North Dakota to be about 10% less Democratic than the United States as a whole.

So North Dakota may be about 7% less Democratic than the United States this week. OK -- North Dakota may have been out of play for Orwellian attack ads on HCR, and the other states were arenas for attack ads (my district in Michigan was, and my Congressional Representative was not going to vote NO). That's not much of an outlier. But Indiana 12% less,  North Carolina  9%, and Florida 8% less Democratic? No way!

We have had only two polls since the passage of HCR legislation, one in a State that Obama has no reasonable chance of losing (Hawaii) and one in a State that he has practically no chance of losing (North Dakota). I would rather see polls for States more likely to make a difference in 2010 -- like Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia -- but that's not what we have now.     
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