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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4350 on: March 29, 2010, 08:39:42 pm »
« edited: March 29, 2010, 08:49:45 pm by pbrower2a »

As North Dakota goes, so does... South Dakota.


43% approve
55% disapprove.

Rasmussen, "Likely Voters, March 29."


With the favorability poll just shown for Wisconsin we have this:




but without it we have this:



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4351 on: March 30, 2010, 12:32:25 am »

Please don`t add favorability polls to the map.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4352 on: March 30, 2010, 01:05:34 am »

Missouri (PPP)Sad

43% Approve
52% Disapprove

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/03/missouri-poll-preview.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4353 on: March 30, 2010, 01:14:42 am »

Please don`t add favorability polls to the map.

That's why I am showing two maps. I suspect that favorability and approval are converging. It's hard to imagine that people can now separate the Presidential image from Presidential achievements (or their antitheses) anymore.  Perhaps by July things will settle down so that favorability and approval will diverge.  We will see more polls that show relevance, and we may start seeing a clear difference between "approval" and "favorability" again.

In early 2009 people may have been seeing "favorability" as such issues as :

Does he seem "Presidential"?

Is he likable?

Do you trust him to not do something crooked?

It's also possible that favorability and approval are still apples and oranges. When we see conflicts between the two, I will have both. So far the one "favorability" poll seems to make sense. Wisconsin isn't far from New Mexico in its partisan identity, and it is much more "D" than North Dakota or South Dakota and much less "D" than Hawaii.

Show me a poll that shows the state most similar to Wisconsin in its politics -- let us say Minnesota, maybe Oregon or Washington -- gives poll results very different from Wisconsin, and I will take off the "mixed favorability/approval" map. Polls from early March and mid-March are now terribly obsolete.    
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4354 on: March 30, 2010, 01:20:35 am »
« Edited: March 30, 2010, 01:24:20 am by pbrower2a »

Missouri, roughly as it was in December and early March.

Mixed approval and favorability (the latter Wisconsin only):



Approval only:



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.


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J. J.
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« Reply #4355 on: March 30, 2010, 08:35:50 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, unchanged.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4356 on: March 30, 2010, 09:26:24 am »

USA Today/Gallup (3/26-3/28, 1033 Adults - NOT THE TRACKING POLL)
47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-03-29-health-poll_N.htm

CNN/Opinion Research (3/25-3/28, 935 RV)
51% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/03/29/rel6b.pdf
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« Reply #4357 on: March 30, 2010, 01:02:38 pm »

USA Today/Gallup (3/26-3/28, 1033 Adults - NOT THE TRACKING POLL)
47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-03-29-health-poll_N.htm

CNN/Opinion Research (3/25-3/28, 935 RV)
51% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/03/29/rel6b.pdf


For the same period, gallup gives different results... lol. Gallup is not better than zogby.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4358 on: March 30, 2010, 03:29:03 pm »


Gallup is back to where it started

48%  Approve (u)

44% Disapprove (-2)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4359 on: March 30, 2010, 05:04:19 pm »
« Edited: March 30, 2010, 05:59:09 pm by pbrower2a »

Blank map apparently applicable to 2012:




Ignoring all polls from before March 22, 2010 we have only six data points. Can we interpret statewide polls, six of approval and one of favorability. Hawaii is off the chart for approval and Rhode Island is nearly so; the Dakotas and Missouri are in the lower-middle 40s in approval, New Mexico is in the lower fifties for approval. Wisconsin just showed 54% favorability, so even if one knocks that one down three points, it is still in the low fifties.




deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%
white                        too close to call
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 

Note: colors for Alabama, Florida, and Georgia exist only to show colors not otherwise used.

Now how do we translate that into votes?

It's obvious that President Obama would win Hawaii and Rhode Island by gigantic margins. The difference between 55% of the vote and 80% of the vote is trivial in the winner-take-all system that we have. They are deep red on this scheme.

44% approval gives roughly a 50% chance of winning, suggesting about 49% of the vote. If you think that one needs 50% with which to win, remember that 49% can easily be the plurality when there is even a small number of third-party votes.  44% for North Dakota suggests "too close to call" (white) , so South Dakota and Missouri go into the category "barely R"  (light blue).

Approval does not translate directly into voting percentage for an incumbent.  People who approve of the incumbent President will vote,and so will those who disapprove of the President but approve of the challenger, but those who disapprove of both the incumbent and the challenger may

(1) not vote

(2) vote for a third-party or independent alternative if one exists

(3) vote for the incumbent if they disapprove of the  challenger more

(4) vote for the Party and not the candidate

.................

(1) reduces the overall vote and increases the percentage for the incumbent.

(2) "wastes" votes without increasing percentages for anyone. Look at 1992 for an exaggeration.

(3) increases the vote for the incumbent if the challenger is unusually weak, or hurts the incumbent if he has severe weaknesses due to substandard performance (examples: Hoover, Carter).

(4) is a complete wash.

For approval above 50%, one can generally figure that the raw vote will be up by 3%, so I figure that Obama would win New Mexico about 57-43, making it "deep red" as befit Leip's pattern. But the percentage of vote involving favorability is likely to be much the same. I figure that with Wisconsin, 54% approval translates to a 54% vote, or roughly an 8% margin.

To show what pink, medium blue, and deep blue look like I will show them for Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, respectively -- this time only.  
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Dodger Blue
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« Reply #4360 on: March 30, 2010, 05:24:58 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, unchanged.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.



Its just going to get worse for Obama.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4361 on: March 30, 2010, 05:55:13 pm »

USA Today/Gallup (3/26-3/28, 1033 Adults - NOT THE TRACKING POLL)
47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-03-29-health-poll_N.htm

CNN/Opinion Research (3/25-3/28, 935 RV)
51% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/03/29/rel6b.pdf


For the same period, gallup gives different results... lol. Gallup is not better than zogby.

It's called MOE.
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« Reply #4362 on: March 30, 2010, 06:15:47 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, unchanged.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.



Its just going to get worse for Obama.

Oh wow, you can see the future? Can you tell me next week's lottery numbers?
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« Reply #4363 on: March 30, 2010, 06:25:17 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, unchanged.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.



Its just going to get worse for Obama.

Oh wow, you can see the future? Can you tell me next week's lottery numbers?

Go ahead and keep thinking the economy is not going to COLLAPSE. Go ahead with your bad self. We shall see.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4364 on: March 30, 2010, 08:37:29 pm »

Basically, Obama's numbers did not greatly increase after Obamacare was passed.  It is not so much that they may get worse.  It is that they did not get very much better.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4365 on: March 31, 2010, 05:21:34 am »

Basically, Obama's numbers did not greatly increase after Obamacare was passed.  It is not so much that they may get worse.  It is that they did not get very much better.

Yes, but the bleeding stopped. The ugly propaganda undermining his Presidency came to an end after it became more costly than relevant. 

As the future President showed in 2008, one can win a close election by working the margins, putting resources where they can do one's overall campaign the most good.  That election would have been much closer had it not been for the meltdown of the financial system.
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« Reply #4366 on: March 31, 2010, 05:51:42 am »

USA Today/Gallup (3/26-3/28, 1033 Adults - NOT THE TRACKING POLL)
47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-03-29-health-poll_N.htm

CNN/Opinion Research (3/25-3/28, 935 RV)
51% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/03/29/rel6b.pdf


For the same period, gallup gives different results... lol. Gallup is not better than zogby.

It's called MOE.

lol
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Badger
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« Reply #4367 on: March 31, 2010, 07:48:45 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, unchanged.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.



Its just going to get worse for Obama.

Oh wow, you can see the future? Can you tell me next week's lottery numbers?

Go ahead and keep thinking the economy is not going to COLLAPSE. Go ahead with your bad self. We shall see.

It already did just prior to his taking office. Now we're in recovery. The only question is whether jobs will follow quick enough for the Democrats to retain the House in November.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4368 on: March 31, 2010, 09:05:47 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +1

Disapprove 51% -2




"Strongly Approve" is at 33%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -2.

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J. J.
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« Reply #4369 on: March 31, 2010, 09:10:59 am »

Basically, Obama's numbers did not greatly increase after Obamacare was passed.  It is not so much that they may get worse.  It is that they did not get very much better.

Yes, but the bleeding stopped. The ugly propaganda undermining his Presidency came to an end after it became more costly than relevant. 

As the future President showed in 2008, one can win a close election by working the margins, putting resources where they can do one's overall campaign the most good.  That election would have been much closer had it not been for the meltdown of the financial system.

I've indicated that Obamacare rallied the base, and Obama's lows are no longer record numbers.  Obamacare still remains very unpopular.

Obama however said, in effect, if it passed, there would be a turnaround.  That has not happened.
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« Reply #4370 on: March 31, 2010, 12:20:01 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, unchanged.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.



Its just going to get worse for Obama.

Oh wow, you can see the future? Can you tell me next week's lottery numbers?

Go ahead and keep thinking the economy is not going to COLLAPSE. Go ahead with your bad self. We shall see.

It already did just prior to his taking office. Now we're in recovery. The only question is whether jobs will follow quick enough for the Democrats to retain the House in November.

What makes you think it won't happen again?
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xavier110
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« Reply #4371 on: March 31, 2010, 12:22:07 pm »

Gallup
50% (+2)
43% (-1)
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J. J.
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« Reply #4372 on: March 31, 2010, 01:53:18 pm »


Gallup approaches normal (for Gallup).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4373 on: March 31, 2010, 03:35:16 pm »
« Edited: March 31, 2010, 04:03:43 pm by pbrower2a »

Idaho, one day after the HCR vote in the House

Approval 26%
DISAPPROVAL 70%

If that were a national figure, it would be wise for the President to seek political asylum quickly, for that is the level of political rejection at which military coups take place.

But it is Idaho, with four electoral votes, so there's no cause for alarm.

Mixed approval and favorability (the latter Wisconsin only):



Approval only:



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.


Ignoring all polls from before March 22, 2010 we have only six seven data points. Can we interpret statewide polls, six of approval and one of favorability. Hawaii is off the chart for approval and Rhode Island is nearly so; the Dakotas and Missouri are in the lower-middle 40s in approval, New Mexico is in the lower fifties for approval. Wisconsin just showed 54% favorability, so even if one knocks that one down three points, it is still in the low fifties. The new one is Idaho, off the chart for disapproval of the President. President Obama would be lucky to get 30% of the vote in Idaho.  




deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%
white                        too close to call
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 
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« Reply #4374 on: March 31, 2010, 05:22:33 pm »

Well, of course. Its Idaho.
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