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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016181 times)
ragevein
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« Reply #4500 on: April 10, 2010, 02:16:18 pm »

It is official.

Ohio = more liberal than Wisconin. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #4501 on: April 10, 2010, 04:58:54 pm »

Gallup

47% approve (-2)

48% disapprove (+2)

I would guess a bad sample.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4502 on: April 11, 2010, 08:42:54 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% -1

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

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CJK
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« Reply #4503 on: April 11, 2010, 12:24:51 pm »

Gallup:

45% approve (-2)

48% disapprove (nc)
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #4504 on: April 11, 2010, 12:43:06 pm »

The -3 net has to be his lowest approval to date on Gallup, correct?
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J. J.
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« Reply #4505 on: April 11, 2010, 01:12:15 pm »

The -3 net has to be his lowest approval to date on Gallup, correct?

Yes, and I still expect it's caused a bad sample.  If there is a still a problem by Tuesday-Wednesday, it might be something more.

There has been, arguably, some slight downward movement in Rasmussen, but well within the MOE.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4506 on: April 11, 2010, 01:31:34 pm »

Obama Job Approval chart - ALL POLLS
Updated April 11, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- All polls per state done in last six weeks (must be started after Feb 21 for this week), maximum one poll per firm.
- Other polls done in last six months can be included, but no more than three polls per state can be outside the six week envelope and if more than three polls done in last six weeks, no polls before that.  (also if one poll done in last six weeks, then only two can be included in six month period, two polls, then one, etc).
- No favorable polls; no excellent/good/fair/poor polls; no Rutgers-Eagleton/Strategic Vision/any other questionable company; no partisan/internals, my judgment as to what is prevails
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Virginia Gov/Massachusetts Special polls ignored.  New Jersey Gov polls wouldn't be included under the methodology anyways.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama340%58%39%37%42%
Alaska137%56%38%36%28%
Arizona245%52%45%44%45%
Arkansas337%60%39%45%46%
California556%38%61%54%53%
Colorado245%54%54%47%42%
Connecticut354%42%61%54%56%
D. C.0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware252%45%62%53%55%
Florida345%51%51%47%49%
Georgia343%54%47%41%43%
Hawaii177%23%72%54%56%
Idaho233%62%36%30%28%
Illinois254%42%62%55%55%
Indiana139%60%50%39%41%
Iowa348%48%54%49%49%
Kansas240%60%42%37%37%
Kentucky337%60%41%40%41%
Louisiana137%62%40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland358%34%62%56%57%
Massachusetts156%44%62%62%60%
Michigan148%50%57%51%51%
Minnesota149%49%54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri343%54%49%46%47%
Montana137%53%47%39%33%
Nebraska138%61%42%33%33%
Nevada243%55%55%48%46%
New Hampshire249%49%54%50%47%
New Jersey354%39%57%53%56%
New Mexico250%47%57%49%48%
New York356%41%63%58%60%
North Carolina447%49%50%44%43%
North Dakota144%55%45%36%33%
Ohio444%52%51%49%46%
Oklahoma237%60%34%34%38%
Oregon249%50%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania346%50%54%51%51%
Rhode Island161%39%63%59%61%
South Carolina346%48%45%41%41%
South Dakota242%54%45%38%38%
Tennessee239%57%42%43%47%
Texas336%57%44%38%38%
Utah238%60%34%26%26%
Vermont262%36%67%59%51%
Virginia246%53%53%45%44%
Washington248%50%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin448%49%56%50%48%
Wyoming131%68%33%29%28%
NATIONAL47%49%53%48%48%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4507 on: April 11, 2010, 01:35:24 pm »

Not going to have a chance to put up the Rasmussen numbers now, but the national numbers for both 3 poll/1 poll = 48% Approval, 51% Disapproval.

As for state polls without Rasmussen, I'll put that up later.  Its extrapolation is going to probably be 47% Approval, 47% Disapproval, unless something expected occurs in my maths.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #4508 on: April 11, 2010, 01:38:25 pm »

Yikes, those are some ugly numbers for Obama.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4509 on: April 11, 2010, 05:50:09 pm »

Not going to have a chance to put up the Rasmussen numbers now, but the national numbers for both 3 poll/1 poll = 48% Approval, 51% Disapproval.

As for state polls without Rasmussen, I'll put that up later.  Its extrapolation is going to probably be 47% Approval, 47% Disapproval, unless something expected occurs in my maths.

Rasmussen has been reasonably stable, with a pickup in the "strongly approve" numbers.  "Approve" is arguably slightly better.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4510 on: April 11, 2010, 06:40:02 pm »

The trend has been in gallup that whenever Palin/talk radio takes a prominent role in the media cycle, Obama's approval rating has dropped (look at what happened to obama's numbers in the gallup poll the week of her book tour).  I'll concede this trend didn't apply to her tea party convention speech.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #4511 on: April 11, 2010, 08:55:26 pm »

This is the map that goes with Sam's first chart: Blue is tie, Red Disapprove and Green Approve.

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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #4512 on: April 11, 2010, 09:01:32 pm »

This is the map that goes with Sam's first chart: Blue is tie, Red Disapprove and Green Approve.



I'd say 45% approval is the even out point.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4513 on: April 11, 2010, 09:49:52 pm »

Can we get the pic of the Duke hack Scheyer off the board?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4514 on: April 11, 2010, 10:12:08 pm »

Obama Job Approval chart - RASMUSSEN LAST 3 POLLS
Updated April 11, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- This chart covers an average of the last two/three Rasmussen polls within the last six months, or simply the last poll if no poll exists in that time frame.
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Virginia Gov/Massachusetts Special polls ignored.  New Jersey Gov polls wouldn't be included under the methodology anyways.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama142%58%39%37%42%
Alaska0NoneNone38%36%28%
Arizona342%58%45%44%45%
Arkansas336%62%39%45%46%
California358%42%61%54%53%
Colorado343%55%54%47%42%
Connecticut353%47%61%54%56%
D. C.0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware352%47%62%53%55%
Florida343%56%51%47%49%
Georgia343%55%47%41%43%
Hawaii177%23%72%54%56%
Idaho130%70%36%30%28%
Illinois356%43%62%55%55%
Indiana342%57%50%39%41%
Iowa248%52%54%49%49%
Kansas142%58%42%37%37%
Kentucky339%59%41%40%41%
Louisiana338%62%40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland159%40%62%56%57%
Massachusetts255%45%62%62%60%
Michigan250%49%57%51%51%
Minnesota351%48%54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri341%58%49%46%47%
Montana0NoneNone47%39%33%
Nebraska138%61%42%33%33%
Nevada344%56%55%48%46%
New Hampshire349%51%54%50%47%
New Jersey153%47%57%53%56%
New Mexico154%46%57%49%48%
New York356%44%63%58%60%
North Carolina344%55%50%44%43%
North Dakota341%57%45%36%33%
Ohio347%52%51%49%46%
Oklahoma138%62%34%34%38%
Oregon150%49%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania346%53%54%51%51%
Rhode Island262%38%63%59%61%
South Carolina145%54%45%41%41%
South Dakota242%57%45%38%38%
Tennessee136%62%42%43%47%
Texas339%59%44%38%38%
Utah0NoneNone34%26%26%
Vermont160%39%67%59%51%
Virginia249%51%53%45%44%
Washington352%47%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin348%51%56%50%48%
Wyoming131%68%33%29%28%
NATIONAL48%51%53%48%48%
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J. J.
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« Reply #4515 on: April 11, 2010, 10:20:13 pm »

This is the map that goes with Sam's first chart: Blue is tie, Red Disapprove and Green Approve.



Even prior to redistricting, giving Obama the ties, and giving all the unpolled states except WV and MS, he ends up 198 EV's.  With redistricting, they may be net loss of 4-6 EV's.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4516 on: April 11, 2010, 10:35:59 pm »

Obama Job Approval chart - RASMUSSEN LAST POLL
Updated April 11, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- This chart covers the last Rasmussen Poll in each state so long as under six months old.
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Virginia Gov/Massachusetts Special/New Jersey polls ignored.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama142%58%39%37%42%
Alaska0NoneNone38%36%28%
Arizona142%56%45%44%45%
Arkansas137%61%39%45%46%
California158%42%61%54%53%
Colorado142%57%54%47%42%
Connecticut154%46%61%54%56%
D. C.0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware151%48%62%53%55%
Florida143%55%51%47%49%
Georgia144%54%47%41%43%
Hawaii177%23%72%54%56%
Idaho130%70%36%30%28%
Illinois158%41%62%55%55%
Indiana139%60%50%39%41%
Iowa150%49%54%49%49%
Kansas142%58%42%37%37%
Kentucky138%62%41%40%41%
Louisiana137%62%40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland159%40%62%56%57%
Massachusetts156%44%62%62%60%
Michigan148%50%57%51%51%
Minnesota149%49%54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri140%59%49%46%47%
Montana0NoneNone47%39%33%
Nebraska138%61%42%33%33%
Nevada142%58%55%48%46%
New Hampshire149%50%54%50%47%
New Jersey153%47%57%53%56%
New Mexico154%46%57%49%48%
New York154%46%63%58%60%
North Carolina142%57%50%44%43%
North Dakota144%55%45%36%33%
Ohio146%53%51%49%46%
Oklahoma138%62%34%34%38%
Oregon150%49%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania148%51%54%51%51%
Rhode Island161%39%63%59%61%
South Carolina145%54%45%41%41%
South Dakota143%55%45%38%38%
Tennessee136%62%42%43%47%
Texas136%63%44%38%38%
Utah0NoneNone34%26%26%
Vermont160%39%67%59%51%
Virginia148%51%53%45%44%
Washington154%43%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin152%48%56%50%48%
Wyoming131%68%33%29%28%
NATIONAL48%51%53%48%48%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4517 on: April 11, 2010, 10:36:32 pm »

I'll do the Non-Rasmussen one tomorrow.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4518 on: April 12, 2010, 09:18:50 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +1

Disapprove 52% -2


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

A slight shift and opposite direction from Gallup.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4519 on: April 12, 2010, 11:52:37 am »

Rasmussen, Florida -- Republicans only:

Just 15% of Florida Republicans approve of Obama’s performance as president, with eight percent (8%) who strongly approve. Eighty-three percent (83%) disapprove of the job he is doing, including 71% who strongly disapprove.

Needless to say, the Senate campaign of Charlie Crist has melted down.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4520 on: April 12, 2010, 01:58:55 pm »
« Edited: April 12, 2010, 08:23:28 pm by pbrower2a »

Louisiana, Rasmussen... Yawn!

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Louisiana must be very liberal on sex, but not much else: David Vitter is leading Charlie Melancon by a huge margin in the Senate race, 52-36. Marginal improvement for President Obama, not that it is likely to matter.




Mixed approval and favorability (the latter California, Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll

28 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House, and of these Alabama has two polls saying the same thing; those in Wisconsin contradict.

Georgia is favorability, and 45% favorability suggests about a 46% vote. 41% approval would have about the same effect.



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  4
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  69
white                        too close to call  13
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   55
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 21  






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Saff
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« Reply #4521 on: April 12, 2010, 05:42:04 pm »

So his numbers haven't changed at all since Nov 2008. Who knew.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4522 on: April 12, 2010, 09:10:38 pm »

Obama Job Approval chart - ALL NON-RASMUSSEN POLLS
Updated April 12, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- All polls per state done in last six weeks (must be started after Feb 21 for this week), maximum one poll per firm.
- Other polls done in last six months can be included, but no more than three polls per state can be outside the six week envelope and if more than three polls done in last six weeks, no polls before that.  (also if one poll done in last six weeks, then only two can be included in six month period, two polls, then one, etc).
- No favorable polls; no excellent/good/fair/poor polls; no Rutgers-Eagleton/Strategic Vision/any other questionable company; no partisan/internals, my judgment as to what is prevails
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Virginia Gov/Massachusetts Special polls ignored.  New Jersey Gov polls wouldn't be included under the methodology anyways.
- No Rasmussen polls in this one.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama239%58%39%37%42%
Alaska137%56%38%36%28%
Arizona148%48%45%44%45%
Arkansas238%60%39%45%46%
California455%38%61%54%53%
Colorado147%50%54%47%42%
Connecticut254%40%61%54%56%
D. C.0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware153%41%62%53%55%
Florida346%50%51%47%49%
Georgia242%55%47%41%43%
Hawaii0NoneNone72%54%56%
Idaho135%54%36%30%28%
Illinois150%42%62%55%55%
Indiana0NoneNone50%39%41%
Iowa248%48%54%49%49%
Kansas137%61%42%37%37%
Kentucky237%59%41%40%41%
Louisiana0NoneNone40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland258%32%62%56%57%
Massachusetts0NoneNone62%62%60%
Michigan0NoneNone57%51%51%
Minnesota0NoneNone54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri244%52%49%46%47%
Montana137%53%47%39%33%
Nebraska0NoneNone42%33%33%
Nevada144%52%55%48%46%
New Hampshire148%47%54%50%47%
New Jersey354%39%57%53%56%
New Mexico145%48%57%49%48%
New York257%39%63%58%60%
North Carolina348%46%50%44%43%
North Dakota0NoneNone45%36%33%
Ohio445%50%51%49%46%
Oklahoma136%58%34%34%38%
Oregon148%50%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania345%50%54%51%51%
Rhode Island0NoneNone63%59%61%
South Carolina247%45%45%41%41%
South Dakota141%52%45%38%38%
Tennessee142%51%42%43%47%
Texas338%54%44%38%38%
Utah238%60%34%26%26%
Vermont163%33%67%59%51%
Virginia144%54%53%45%44%
Washington146%49%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin346%49%56%50%48%
Wyoming0NoneNone33%29%28%
NATIONAL47%47%53%48%48%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4523 on: April 12, 2010, 09:12:01 pm »

pbrower is missing a PA approval for Obama from Muhlenberg College at 45% approve, 50% approve.

I'll probably update these numbers every one or two weeks.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4524 on: April 12, 2010, 11:00:23 pm »

pbrower is missing a PA approval for Obama from Muhlenberg College at 45% approve, 50% approve.

I'll probably update these numbers every one or two weeks.

It is still consistent with the image that I show on my map. 45-49%  approval with higher disapproval appears sand yellow.  
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