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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016015 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #4600 on: April 22, 2010, 04:38:53 pm »

Gallup Obama National

Approve:  49 u

Disapprove:  43 -2
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4601 on: April 22, 2010, 07:54:45 pm »
« Edited: April 24, 2010, 12:54:21 am by pbrower2a »

Maryland, Rasmussen, 59-39. likely voters. No surprise. I couldn't link to the toplines on that one.

But I can on this one in Georgia:

Georgia Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted April 22, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

34% Strongly approve
7% Somewhat approve
6% Somewhat disapprove
51% Strongly disapprove
2% Not sure




Mixed approval and favorability (the latter, Arkansas, Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

36 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  142
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  12
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 74
white                        too close to call  40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   60
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 55  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.





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Xahar
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« Reply #4602 on: April 23, 2010, 12:54:23 am »

Tender Branson, I've told you not to post wide URLs.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4603 on: April 23, 2010, 10:08:33 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% u

Disapprove 52% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 32%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4604 on: April 23, 2010, 11:54:49 pm »

Tender Branson, I've told you not to post wide URLs.

Yeah sry man, I forget to create the URL links once in a while ... Tongue

But I`ll try to do it from now on ...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4605 on: April 24, 2010, 12:39:27 am »

North Carolina (Elon)Sad

47% Approve
48% Disapprove

The poll, conducted April 19-22, 2010, surveyed 607 North Carolina residents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Respondents were not limited by voter registration or likelihood of voting. The sample is of the population in general, with numbers that include both landlines and cellular phones.

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/042310_PollData.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4606 on: April 24, 2010, 12:59:43 am »

North Carolina. University/college poll. I stuck with the unflattering poll from St. Norbert's College (Wisconsin), so I would be inconsistent to reject this one:




Mixed approval and favorability (the latter, Arkansas, Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

36 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  142
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  12
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 89
white                        too close to call  40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   45
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 55  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.






[/quote]
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« Reply #4607 on: April 24, 2010, 03:38:02 am »

I never really trusted the Rassy numbers on NC to start with.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4608 on: April 24, 2010, 09:31:09 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% u

Disapprove 52% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.


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J. J.
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« Reply #4609 on: April 25, 2010, 08:57:17 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% -2

Disapprove 54% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +2.

Perhaps just some wobbling after five days of stability.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4610 on: April 26, 2010, 09:11:03 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% +2

Disapprove 52% -2


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

Back to stability.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4611 on: April 26, 2010, 09:36:00 am »
« Edited: April 26, 2010, 05:06:54 pm by pbrower2a »

If anyone thinks that President Obama's approval of 44% in North Dakota was a fluke a month ago, then this one is practically a duplicate.



North Dakota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted April 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

27% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
8% Somewhat disapprove
46% Strongly disapprove
2% Not sure

South Dakota, too:

South Dakota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted April 21, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

27% Strongly approve
18% Somewhat approve
7% Somewhat disapprove
47% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure




Mixed approval and favorability (the latter, Arkansas, Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

36 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  142
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  12
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 92
white                        too close to call  40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  43
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   45
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 55  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.






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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4612 on: April 26, 2010, 09:52:38 am »

Notably, though, when you compare North Dakota to the recent polls in Georgia and Florida, the strength of that approval is much weaker. (That is, many more of North Dakota's approvers only "somewhat" approve.)
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xavier110
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« Reply #4613 on: April 26, 2010, 05:17:55 pm »

Notably, though, when you compare North Dakota to the recent polls in Georgia and Florida, the strength of that approval is much weaker. (That is, many more of North Dakota's approvers only "somewhat" approve.)

But all that really matters is the strongly disapprove...the 51% who strongly disapprove in GA will not vote for him. He at least is in the mid-40's in the Dakotas, but then again the Dakotas aren't the type of states that would get too riled up about a politician.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4614 on: April 26, 2010, 06:04:39 pm »

Notably, though, when you compare North Dakota to the recent polls in Georgia and Florida, the strength of that approval is much weaker. (That is, many more of North Dakota's approvers only "somewhat" approve.)

But all that really matters is the strongly disapprove...the 51% who strongly disapprove in GA will not vote for him. He at least is in the mid-40's in the Dakotas, but then again the Dakotas aren't the type of states that would get too riled up about a politician.

41% approval (Georgia) and 44% approval (North Dakota) implies a huge difference. Add about 6%  to the approval rating for an incumbent at the start of a campaign and you get a fair idea of how he will do in the general election in a state. The incumbent as a Governor, Senator, or (in a one-Representative state) Representative has plenty of advantages by being able to use the perquisites of office, most significantly the ability to set the agenda that a challenger doesn't have. Some who disapprove will disapprove of the challenger, too, and either won't vote or will vote for a third-party candidate. Adding 6% suggests a likely vote share.

The 41% approval in Georgia probably translates to about 47% of a vote share... which isn't close enough to get the President to make lots of appearances there unless the state is the difference between winning and losing the nationwide election. That is close to how Obama did in Georgia in 2008... and he abandoned the state as an electoral target in favor of others.

Sure, Obama could win Georgia in 2012... if certain things go right. Successful wind-downs of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq might do the trick if such convinces active military people... but that is asking for things that have yet to happen, are not sure to happen, and have no obvious precedent. He could also lose Wisconsin if unemployment skyrockets.

North Dakota showed two polls in two months in which the President has an approval rating of 44%, which translates into about a 50% share of the vote. That is where Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina were in 2008. Such translates into a phrase that causes many people to reach for antacids:

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

The bad news for the GOP: North Dakota hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964 and hasn't been close to going for the Democratic nominee except in an electoral blowout for a very long time.

The good news for the GOP: North Dakota is unlikely to be the difference in the 2012 election.

Further bad news for the GOP: take a good look at South Dakota.
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« Reply #4615 on: April 26, 2010, 06:23:01 pm »

Bad tidings for the GOP here, perhaps due to the attention on financial reform?

I think AZ will either get further to the GOP or flip if immigration is tackled next.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4616 on: April 26, 2010, 07:14:37 pm »

Bad tidings for the GOP here, perhaps due to the attention on financial reform?

I think AZ will either get further to the GOP or flip if immigration is tackled next.

Reform of the financial system may be closing the barn door after the horse has left. If the GOP had any sense it would try to co-opt the Democrats on this one rather than line up for campaign funds from lobbyists for crooks of the Double-Zero Decade. 
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« Reply #4617 on: April 26, 2010, 07:38:24 pm »

Bad tidings for the GOP here, perhaps due to the attention on financial reform?

I think AZ will either get further to the GOP or flip if immigration is tackled next.

Reform of the financial system may be closing the barn door after the horse has left. If the GOP had any sense it would try to co-opt the Democrats on this one rather than line up for campaign funds from lobbyists for crooks of the Double-Zero Decade. 

Well today's vote was certainly an indication that the GOP isn't going to co-opt this one.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4618 on: April 27, 2010, 09:07:52 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% u

Disapprove 52% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

More of the same.  You have to go back to 3/22/10 to find a number outside of a two point range of either the approve or disapprove number.
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« Reply #4619 on: April 27, 2010, 09:10:11 am »

Notably, though, when you compare North Dakota to the recent polls in Georgia and Florida, the strength of that approval is much weaker. (That is, many more of North Dakota's approvers only "somewhat" approve.)

But all that really matters is the strongly disapprove...the 51% who strongly disapprove in GA will not vote for him. He at least is in the mid-40's in the Dakotas, but then again the Dakotas aren't the type of states that would get too riled up about a politician.

41% approval (Georgia) and 44% approval (North Dakota) implies a huge difference. Add about 6%  to the approval rating for an incumbent at the start of a campaign and you get a fair idea of how he will do in the general election in a state. The incumbent as a Governor, Senator, or (in a one-Representative state) Representative has plenty of advantages by being able to use the perquisites of office, most significantly the ability to set the agenda that a challenger doesn't have. Some who disapprove will disapprove of the challenger, too, and either won't vote or will vote for a third-party candidate. Adding 6% suggests a likely vote share.

The 41% approval in Georgia probably translates to about 47% of a vote share... which isn't close enough to get the President to make lots of appearances there unless the state is the difference between winning and losing the nationwide election. That is close to how Obama did in Georgia in 2008... and he abandoned the state as an electoral target in favor of others.

Sure, Obama could win Georgia in 2012... if certain things go right. Successful wind-downs of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq might do the trick if such convinces active military people... but that is asking for things that have yet to happen, are not sure to happen, and have no obvious precedent. He could also lose Wisconsin if unemployment skyrockets.

North Dakota showed two polls in two months in which the President has an approval rating of 44%, which translates into about a 50% share of the vote. That is where Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina were in 2008. Such translates into a phrase that causes many people to reach for antacids:

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

The bad news for the GOP: North Dakota hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964 and hasn't been close to going for the Democratic nominee except in an electoral blowout for a very long time.

The good news for the GOP: North Dakota is unlikely to be the difference in the 2012 election.

Further bad news for the GOP: take a good look at South Dakota.


You really think Obama would have a chance at carrying two states where he is strongly disapproved of by 48% of voters?

... Okay.

But seriously, pbrower, you're cherry-picking polls that are favorable to your candidate.  I've never heard you say "IMPENDING DEMOCRAT DISASTER!" when there's a poll showing Obama below 50% in states like Oregon and Washington.  How about a little consistency?

But you have to account for 3rd parties or not voting which at least 5% of these 48% disapproval will do.
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« Reply #4620 on: April 27, 2010, 10:00:57 am »

Notably, though, when you compare North Dakota to the recent polls in Georgia and Florida, the strength of that approval is much weaker. (That is, many more of North Dakota's approvers only "somewhat" approve.)

But all that really matters is the strongly disapprove...the 51% who strongly disapprove in GA will not vote for him. He at least is in the mid-40's in the Dakotas, but then again the Dakotas aren't the type of states that would get too riled up about a politician.

41% approval (Georgia) and 44% approval (North Dakota) implies a huge difference. Add about 6%  to the approval rating for an incumbent at the start of a campaign and you get a fair idea of how he will do in the general election in a state. The incumbent as a Governor, Senator, or (in a one-Representative state) Representative has plenty of advantages by being able to use the perquisites of office, most significantly the ability to set the agenda that a challenger doesn't have. Some who disapprove will disapprove of the challenger, too, and either won't vote or will vote for a third-party candidate. Adding 6% suggests a likely vote share.

The 41% approval in Georgia probably translates to about 47% of a vote share... which isn't close enough to get the President to make lots of appearances there unless the state is the difference between winning and losing the nationwide election. That is close to how Obama did in Georgia in 2008... and he abandoned the state as an electoral target in favor of others.

Sure, Obama could win Georgia in 2012... if certain things go right. Successful wind-downs of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq might do the trick if such convinces active military people... but that is asking for things that have yet to happen, are not sure to happen, and have no obvious precedent. He could also lose Wisconsin if unemployment skyrockets.

North Dakota showed two polls in two months in which the President has an approval rating of 44%, which translates into about a 50% share of the vote. That is where Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina were in 2008. Such translates into a phrase that causes many people to reach for antacids:

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

The bad news for the GOP: North Dakota hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964 and hasn't been close to going for the Democratic nominee except in an electoral blowout for a very long time.

The good news for the GOP: North Dakota is unlikely to be the difference in the 2012 election.

Further bad news for the GOP: take a good look at South Dakota.

First of all, LOL.

Secondly, ROFL.

To delve into the meat of your arguement, WTF.

If we add 6% to Bill Clinton's approval ratings in 1996, we find he enjoyed a massive landslide victory with a near unprecedented 59-64% of the vote.

Quote
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Similarly, we see George W. Bush scoring a rousing 53-59% victory in 2004:

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Reagan knocked it out of the park by winning nearly two out of every three voters nationwide...

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I'd go on, but your overly simplistic analysis based on your fantasyland wants and desires is lacking to say the least. There is no historical basis for your "plus six," and there is absolutely nothing to suggest that North Dakota will be even remotely competitive with nearly 50% of voters disapproving of him, most of them strongly so.
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« Reply #4621 on: April 27, 2010, 01:26:23 pm »



Rhode Island State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted April 21, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

36% Strongly approve
21% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
31% Strongly disapprove
2% Not sure



Mixed approval and favorability (the latter, Arkansas, Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

36 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  142
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  12
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 92
white                        too close to call  40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  43
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   45
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 55  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.







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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4622 on: April 27, 2010, 01:34:59 pm »

The "approval rating plus six" theory is one of the funniest things I've ever seen on the forum, up there with some of Naso's stuff.
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« Reply #4623 on: April 27, 2010, 01:39:09 pm »

The "approval rating plus six" theory is one of the funniest things I've ever seen on the forum, up there with some of Naso's stuff.

It's even funnier, how pbrower just ignores everyone else.
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Iosif
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Posts: 1,609


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65

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« Reply #4624 on: April 27, 2010, 01:59:31 pm »

There hasn't been a Gallup update in a while. Hmm...

A 51%
D 42%
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