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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1023162 times)
Franzl
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« Reply #4650 on: April 29, 2010, 06:13:40 am »


Same here and it makes life more enjoyable...
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4651 on: April 29, 2010, 08:18:46 am »

I am working with what is available. The re is no head-to-head matchup yet. Obama might lose to some idealized Generic Republican as adept at exuding optimism and transcending regional differences as Ronald Reagan.  You tell  me -- does that candidate exist? We have no state named Shangri-La.

Here is how I'm working with what's available.

We'll see how the Republican field shakes out, and see if anyone especially dynamic breaks from the pack. Right now, I think the front runner is Mitt Romney, and he's a John Kerry at worst. Capable, clearly intelligent, with a presidential "feel," all while still lacking the definable charismatic quality that made Reagan or Obama.

So, to use your "ask myself a question and then answer it immediately" mechanic that is littered through your writing: Does this mean that Romney (or someone like him) is guaranteed the fate of Kerry? No. Kerry did well for someone who failed to win the presidency. He trailed Bush by ~2.4% in the final tally. He can win by performing better than Kerry or by Obama performing worse than Bush.

The latter is the scenario that's shaking out right now. Obama is far more polarizing than he was in 2008. It was an inevitable effect—it's easier to believe a politician is everything you want him to be prior to him taking office. He still inspires a large swath of the populace, but a large part of the Democratic base is much more "realistic" about him now. "The gays," for instance, will never be as excited about Obama as they were in 2008 now that he has a pretty lukewarm record on those issues.

You can see that, in part, by looking at Obama's approval ratings. They're not abysmal, but they're definitely upside down. That doesn't mean things are over for him, but it does mean that he's in worse shape now than Bush was at this point. Worse, in fact, than most points in the Bush first-term presidency. (Though Bush was indeed upside down for a very brief period during the 2004 campaign.)

You can keep your fingers crossed all you want, but your talk of an Obama landslide accompanied by a map where South Dakota somehow leans toward him is patently ridiculous. It's a scenario, but one entirely devoid of supporting data at this point. Don't pretend otherwise.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4652 on: April 29, 2010, 11:07:51 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% u

Disapprove 52% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.


Massive stability.
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ScottM
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« Reply #4653 on: April 29, 2010, 02:33:09 pm »


I've decided to do the same myself.

I'd like to make a point about some of the States the liberals here keep trying to convince us Obama will pick up in 2012. One of the things I like about Rasmussen's polling is the information he provides about voters who have strong opinions about politicians. A voter who strongly approves of a candidate is probably almost certain to vote for that candidate, while if the voter strongly disapproves, said candidate can forget that individuals vote.

In Georgia, right now Rasmussen finds 51% of likely voters strongly disapproving of Obama's job performance. In Missouri that number is 46%. In North Dakota it's also 46%. And in South Dakota it's 47%.

All of those numbers are from surveys taken this month, and all of them show that nearly - more than in Georgia's case - half of the voters in those States are almost certain to oppose Obama as of right now. When you consider the fact that some states that Obama won in 2008 give him similar numbers, as of right now, the picture isn't nearly as rosy for Obama as those on the left would have us believe.

Now, before anyone says that a lot can change between now and 2012, I'm very well aware of that. I know a lot of things will change. But, I also know that anyone who claims to have a stranglehold on what's going to happen (as some here seem to believe they do), is delusional. My opinion is that he's in a little bit of trouble, but, again, it's only an opinion, and only time will tell.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #4654 on: April 29, 2010, 02:37:49 pm »

an opinion based on wishful thinking. At this point anyone's election prediction is based on what they want to happen.
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ScottM
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« Reply #4655 on: April 29, 2010, 02:41:55 pm »

an opinion based on wishful thinking. At this point anyone's election prediction is based on what they want to happen.

Opinion is the key word. It's not something I'm throwing out at random. Yes, I hope I'm right, but that's not the basis for the opinions that I form. It was my opinion that Obama would defeat McCain, I certainly didn't want him to, but the facts as I saw them told me that it would happen. Granted, I didn't expect Obama to win IN or NC, but I think I was probably in the majority there.

So, for the record, while I am very optimistic about 2010 and 2012, I'm not a partisan hack. I call it as I see it, and if I see things turning the other way, I'll be honest about it.
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« Reply #4656 on: April 29, 2010, 03:54:51 pm »

let's just agree that any 2012 prediction could be way off. This time last year, his approval rating was well above 60%. Even more can happen in two and a half years.
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ScottM
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« Reply #4657 on: April 29, 2010, 04:06:10 pm »

let's just agree that any 2012 prediction could be way off. This time last year, his approval rating was well above 60%. Even more can happen in two and a half years.

Agreed. That's exactly what I'm saying. Like I said, anyone who claims to have a stranglehold on what's going to happen is delusional. I think we can also agree that there are quite a few delusional posters here - on both sides.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4658 on: April 29, 2010, 04:45:15 pm »
« Edited: April 29, 2010, 06:27:34 pm by pbrower2a »

Nevada -- two Rasmussen polls, one showing 47% and one showing 48% approval for President Obama. Big improvements for the President from last time. Which one I accept doesn't matter.

Harry Reid is still in political trouble.

So much for Oregon being an imaginable pickup for the GOP in 2012 unless things change drastically:



Oregon Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted April 26, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

41% Strongly approve
18% Somewhat approve
6% Somewhat disapprove
34% Strongly disapprove
0% Not sure   



Mixed approval and favorability (the latter, Arkansas, Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

36 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  142
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  12
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call  40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  37
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   45
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 55  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.








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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4659 on: April 29, 2010, 05:03:48 pm »

let's just agree that any 2012 prediction could be way off. This time last year, his approval rating was well above 60%. Even more can happen in two and a half years.

Much, some of it completely unpredictable, will happen between now and November 2012.

Last year, Congress had yet to enact any controversial legislation. The Tea Party movement that has done much to undercut support for the President (legitimately or otherwise -- your choice!) had just started. The platitudes of the campaign had yet to show their meaning.


We have yet to see how the economy will be in 2012. We have yet to see whether America will have had honorable exits from Afghanistan and Iraq. People will understand better how the health care (financing) reform works by 2012. Maybe they will still want it repealed; maybe they will want it repealed. Who knows? Tthe President always has some possibility of getting ensnared in a scandal. For obvious reasons, this one could not get away with a tryst with a pretty white girl as could Bill Clinton (not that Monica Lewinsky is pretty!)

Above all, we have no idea of who the Republican nominee for President will be. Some possibility remains that we will find a Reagan-like figure who can transcend regional differences and convince us that Obama is a poor President. Some possibility also remains that the dreadful Detroit Lions will win the 2011 Super Bowl, too.

With the current weak field of GOP candidates for nomination, it is worth remembering that ifhalf the public wants to re-elect and about 5% thinks "sort-of-OK" will win a decisive majority of the popular vote and as a rule the Electoral College. "Sort-of-OK" is good enough to win.
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Derek
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« Reply #4660 on: April 29, 2010, 05:15:29 pm »

What candidates do you consider to be weak? I think Huckabee, Romney, and Daniels would beat Obama.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4661 on: April 29, 2010, 05:31:40 pm »

What candidates do you consider to be weak? I think Huckabee, Romney, and Daniels would beat Obama.

Romney probably reduces President Obama's 2008 margins in the Blue Firewall under almost any circumstances, but not enough to win a state like Minnesota or Pennsylvania unless President Obama is a disaster. He probably fares weaker in the South than did John McCain under most circumstances.

By releasing a murderer who eventually became a cop-killer, Mike Huckabee has become the right-wing version of Mike Dukakis.

Mitch Daniels? We don't really know him well. The Toll Road deal isn't popular in Ohio or Michigan; Daniels will need to win Ohio to win. 
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Derek
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« Reply #4662 on: April 29, 2010, 05:47:19 pm »

What candidates do you consider to be weak? I think Huckabee, Romney, and Daniels would beat Obama.

Romney probably reduces President Obama's 2008 margins in the Blue Firewall under almost any circumstances, but not enough to win a state like Minnesota or Pennsylvania unless President Obama is a disaster. He probably fares weaker in the South than did John McCain under most circumstances.

By releasing a murderer who eventually became a cop-killer, Mike Huckabee has become the right-wing version of Mike Dukakis.

Mitch Daniels? We don't really know him well. The Toll Road deal isn't popular in Ohio or Michigan; Daniels will need to win Ohio to win. 

Those are good points however there are other things to consider. One is that by not knowing about Mitch Daniels, he has the advantage. We didn't know much about Clinton either. Romney would not need to win PA or MN to be elected because Bush won both times without either one. Also, Ohio will not have to be in the GOP column anymore. The 2012 electoral map will make it possible for the GOP to win with FL and a combination of states such as IA, NV, CO, and NM. If you took the 2004 map and gave Kerry Ohio but plugged in the 2012 electoral votes, Bush would still have about 273, 274, or 275.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4663 on: April 30, 2010, 12:06:59 am »

Oregon Survey of 500 Likely Voters

41% Strongly approve
18% Somewhat approve
6% Somewhat disapprove
34% Strongly disapprove
0% Not sure

That is definitely an outlier, Oregon is no way better for Obama now than it was on Election Night 2008.

BTW, there`s also Ohio (Quinnipiac):

45% Approve
50% Disapprove

From April 21 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,568 registered Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1450

There are also some favorable ratings from R2000/Dailykos:

Arkansas: 39% favorable, 58% unfavorable

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/4/28/AR/483

Nevada: 44% favorable, 47% unfavorable

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/4/28/NV/485
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J. J.
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« Reply #4664 on: April 30, 2010, 08:46:21 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% u

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 32%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.


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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #4665 on: April 30, 2010, 01:23:21 pm »

Rasmussen in my home state of Illinois

61% approve
39% disapprove


And Rasmussen in Delaware

54% approve
46% disapprove
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Derek
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« Reply #4666 on: April 30, 2010, 01:45:49 pm »

Delaware would've been a little closer without Biden on the ticket; about 59-40.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #4667 on: April 30, 2010, 03:14:54 pm »

Seems pretty stable in the high 40's, when is something exciting going to happen? Sad
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4668 on: April 30, 2010, 03:54:54 pm »

 Home states for the President and Vice-President; no huge surprises:



Mixed approval and favorability (the latter, Arkansas, Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

37 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  145
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  12
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call  40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  37
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   45
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 55  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.









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Derek
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« Reply #4669 on: April 30, 2010, 04:12:38 pm »

Obama loves being in the 40's lol. Wonder how much he'll like it on election night.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #4670 on: April 30, 2010, 04:25:21 pm »

yeah, he definitely just loves it. Very perceptive.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4671 on: May 01, 2010, 09:25:24 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% -1

Disapprove 53% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4672 on: May 01, 2010, 02:14:25 pm »

Obama loves being in the 40's lol. Wonder how much he'll like it on election night.

George W. Bush had approval ratings in that area through most of the autumn of 2004.

What votes does an incumbent get in his re-election bid?

1. "I think that he is wonderful!"

2.  "He has done fine"

3.  "He is sort of OK, I guess!"

4.  "At least we know what we have here."

5. "The other guy just doesn't convince me, and I i will stick with what we have."

Won't vote, or will vote for a Third Party candidate:

1. They're both equally bad.

2. All politicians are crooks.

Will vote for the Other Guy:

1. I never vote for anyone in his Party.

2. He's awful.

3. He's the Antichrist/Hitler/Stalin/Mao/Saddam/Idi Amin! 
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Derek
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« Reply #4673 on: May 01, 2010, 04:08:10 pm »

You forgot to mention that he has a member of NAMBLA as a czar that would be all I focused on when talking to families with children.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4674 on: May 02, 2010, 01:18:45 am »

Indiana (SurveyUSA)Sad

34% Approve
57% Disapprove

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using a registration  based sample (RBS) provided by Aristotle, of Washington DC. All respondents heard the  questions asked identically. The calls were conducted from April 22 through 26.

http://www.scribd.com/INSenPollRCP/d/30717107
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