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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016167 times)
Sam Spade
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« Reply #4750 on: May 08, 2010, 03:37:55 pm »

is that for his entire presidency? I doubt he has a 47% in AZ and SC but only 45% in PA. How old are those numbers? Rasmussen is the most accurate too. Look at their data for 2004 and 2008. They didn't miss a single state in 2004.

Read the methodology.

Also, Rasmussen missed states in 2008 (and I'm pretty sure 2004 too).
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Vosem
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« Reply #4751 on: May 09, 2010, 06:18:38 am »

It's nice to see a compilation of data here other than pbrower's. I was considering doing this myself, but I couldn't find Obama state-by-state approval rating online and was too lazy to go back through pages of thread.

In the future, SS, it'd be nice if your posts came with a map -- that would make them much easier to read.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4752 on: May 09, 2010, 08:39:22 am »

It's nice to see a compilation of data here other than pbrower's. I was considering doing this myself, but I couldn't find Obama state-by-state approval rating online and was too lazy to go back through pages of thread.

In the future, SS, it'd be nice if your posts came with a map -- that would make them much easier to read.

I don't do maps, but you're free to make your own.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4753 on: May 09, 2010, 11:17:34 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% +1

Disapprove 52% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4754 on: May 09, 2010, 04:01:48 pm »

Maps for SS's all polls data (gray is no polls, yellow is a tie). The Ramussen only map looks pretty much the same, and the non-Rasmussen polls map is boring because half the states have no polls.

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J. J.
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« Reply #4755 on: May 09, 2010, 04:25:30 pm »

Maps for SS's all polls data (gray is no polls, yellow is a tie). The Ramussen only map looks pretty much the same, and the non-Rasmussen polls map is boring because half the states have no polls.



Except for PA and WI, it's the 2000 map.
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5280
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« Reply #4756 on: May 09, 2010, 07:58:51 pm »

So something like this for the 2012 election results?

226 - Obama
312 - Generic Rep
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Devilman88
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« Reply #4757 on: May 09, 2010, 08:46:40 pm »

So something like this for the 2012 election results?

226 - Obama
312 - Generic Rep


No, more like this:



Obama/Biden: 279 EV/ 50% PV
Romney/Thune: 259 EV: 47% PV

(I used 2012 EV numbers off of wiki)
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #4758 on: May 09, 2010, 09:12:42 pm »

So something like this for the 2012 election results?

226 - Obama
312 - Generic Rep


No, more like this:



Obama/Biden: 279 EV/ 50% PV
Romney/Thune: 259 EV: 47% PV

(I used 2012 EV numbers off of wiki)

You're both off.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #4759 on: May 09, 2010, 09:31:58 pm »

So something like this for the 2012 election results?

226 - Obama
312 - Generic Rep

Switch Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire and I'd say uo are good. Maybe Iowa and Nevada too.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #4760 on: May 09, 2010, 09:47:44 pm »

Obama vs generic republican

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5280
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« Reply #4761 on: May 09, 2010, 10:28:17 pm »

You may as well make all the states toss up since nobody can predict the 2012 election correctly.  If it's similar to 2000, then my map would be the closest
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Devilman88
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« Reply #4762 on: May 10, 2010, 06:27:02 am »

You may as well make all the states toss up since nobody can predict the 2012 election correctly.  If it's similar to 2000, then my map would be the closest

You are right nobody can predict the 2012 election. But I can say it will not be like 2000, because states have trend on way or another.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4763 on: May 10, 2010, 07:35:44 am »

You may as well make all the states toss up since nobody can predict the 2012 election correctly.  If it's similar to 2000, then my map would be the closest

You are right nobody can predict the 2012 election. But I can say it will not be like 2000, because states have trend on way or another.

One can't fully predict the 2012 election for the simple reason that one can't predict all the strange events that can happen. We have yet to see certain things happen that will likely happen under some circumstances. If things look close now, then you can count on the Obama campaign of 2008 to come out of mothballs and with it the powerful GOTV drive.

Some things are predictable: Pennsylvania may now look like a happy zone for Republicans, but that is only because of a heated primary challenge to an incumbent Senator. The President stays away from Pennsylvania because he does not want to be pulled into the primary campaign. He won't appear in Pennsylvania except in the most neutral of settings -- such as a natural disaster. Once the Democratic primary is over, we can all be certain that President Obama will make plenty of appearances in Pennsylvania to support the winner of the primary against the sure winner of the Republican primary.

The economy has yet to show what it will be like by November 2012. As bad as it looked in 2008, even stability will look like a huge improvement.

Sure, much time exists in which a scandal can erupt or for a big new economic downturn. For good reason, "steady hand" works well for an incumbent. A "trembling hand" doesn't.   
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4764 on: May 10, 2010, 08:05:44 am »

Only rank amateurs would discuss the 2012 election using current "approval" data without employing the "add six (or sometimes four in the case of Ohio)" rule. When you do, you'll see that we're in the midst of an unstoppable Obama landslide barring the appearance of the "next Reagan."
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4765 on: May 10, 2010, 10:46:56 am »

Texas 17th Congressional District:

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2010/05/tx17-new-gop-poll-has-bad-news-for-chet.html

Obama: 33/66
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Derek
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« Reply #4766 on: May 10, 2010, 11:10:12 am »

Only rank amateurs would discuss the 2012 election using current "approval" data without employing the "add six (or sometimes four in the case of Ohio)" rule. When you do, you'll see that we're in the midst of an unstoppable Obama landslide barring the appearance of the "next Reagan."

it's still fun to do even if you are a so called expert
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4767 on: May 10, 2010, 12:32:18 pm »

Only rank amateurs would discuss the 2012 election using current "approval" data without employing the "add six (or sometimes four in the case of Ohio)" rule. When you do, you'll see that we're in the midst of an unstoppable Obama landslide barring the appearance of the "next Reagan."

I see no clear landslide in the formative stage. I can reasonably predict that the Obama campaign will do much as it did in 2008 -- putting little effort into states that seem too far from contention at the time while throwing almost all resources into states that matter greatly but are in reach for one side or the other. Obama is at least a convincing speaker as Reagan -- which will make things difficult for any GOP nominee. Add to that, he is a masterful strategist as a campaigner. If things start to get close in 2012 we will see the campaigner and the organization.

Until the GOP has a nominee who can cut into the habit of voting for Democratic nominees for President in the Blue Firewall, the GOP has already lost about 90% of the election before it begins. Can the GOP lock up 90% of the victory before the 2012 campaign is in the final stage as it did in 2000 and 2004?

The incumbent has most of the advantages in an effort to win re-election so long as people don't want to be reminded of who the incumbent is.

 
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memphis
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« Reply #4768 on: May 10, 2010, 12:39:47 pm »

Only rank amateurs would discuss the 2012 election using current "approval" data without employing the "add six (or sometimes four in the case of Ohio)" rule. When you do, you'll see that we're in the midst of an unstoppable Obama landslide barring the appearance of the "next Reagan."

Only a complete fool thinks approval data two years out means anything. Reagan is far from the only example proving this.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4769 on: May 10, 2010, 07:58:26 pm »

Pennsylvania Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters

Conducted May 6, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly

approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been

doing?

26% Strongly approve

24% Somewhat approve

8% Somewhat disapprove

39% Strongly disapprove

2% Not sure

Approval only, as the effects of favorability and approval are easily normed:






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

37 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  164
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  20
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  18
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 35
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.














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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4770 on: May 10, 2010, 11:41:33 pm »

Surprisingly good PA numbers from Rass.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4771 on: May 11, 2010, 12:16:31 am »

Maryland (Washington Post)Sad

1.030 adults: 62% Approve, 34% Disapprove
851 registered voters: 62% Approve, 36% Disapprove

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone May 3-6, 2010, among a random sample of 1,030 adult residents of Maryland, including 851 registered voters. Interviews were conducted on both conventional and cellular phones, and in English and Spanish. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points; it is four points for the registered voter sample. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt SRBI, Inc of New York, NY.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_050910_koDp3.html?sid=ST2010051000829
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4772 on: May 11, 2010, 12:31:34 am »

Florida (Mason Dixon)Sad

47% Excellent/Good
53% Fair/Poor

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/sfl-obama-florida-poll-results-05102010,0,3007899.htmlstory
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4773 on: May 11, 2010, 02:00:16 am »


Not too bad.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #4774 on: May 11, 2010, 05:58:06 am »


No such thing.
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