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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016381 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #4775 on: May 11, 2010, 08:32:23 am »
« edited: May 12, 2010, 05:13:50 am by pbrower2a »

Maryland, WaPo. Of course, I would rather see a Virginia or even West Virginia poll, for obvious reasons. The EGP poll involving Florida is not usable.

Approval only, as the effects of favorability and approval are easily normed:






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

37 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  164
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  20
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  18
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 35
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.















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J. J.
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« Reply #4776 on: May 11, 2010, 08:41:21 am »
« Edited: May 11, 2010, 09:02:15 am by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +1

Disapprove 51% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.


[No polling over Mother's Day]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4777 on: May 11, 2010, 08:49:34 am »


Obama loses to Theodore Roosevelt back from the grave!

Otherwise... Teddy Roosevelt's ghost more likely endorses Obama in 2012, so far as I can tell.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #4778 on: May 11, 2010, 11:35:28 am »

How does Governor generic republican win Florida before North Carolina??
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Derek
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« Reply #4779 on: May 11, 2010, 11:41:25 am »

Thats not hard to believe but I'd give a GOP NC too.
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Badger
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« Reply #4780 on: May 11, 2010, 11:50:39 am »


Especially with that nebulous "fair" rating in the mix.
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Derek
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« Reply #4781 on: May 11, 2010, 12:10:35 pm »

oh wait fair? come on it should be approve or disapprove that poll is misleading the American ppl.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #4782 on: May 11, 2010, 12:40:46 pm »

I know it's far out, but Obama 2012 is looking more and more like Bush 2004. The polarization is just ridiculous. I think the best thing for the Democrats would be for the GOP take Congress this year, right now they are viewed as the 'government party' and it's definately hurting them.
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Derek
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« Reply #4783 on: May 11, 2010, 12:44:20 pm »

That's why I hope we win 215 in the House and 50 in the senate. That allows us to blame Obama and not be blamed for stopping legislation with the help of a few "moderate" democrats. When being blamed the GOP can say if Obama's idea's are so great, then why did ppl in his own party vote against his agenda? Or maybe he is looking like Carter of 1980.
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Badger
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« Reply #4784 on: May 11, 2010, 12:58:20 pm »

That's why I hope we win 215 in the House and 50 in the senate. That allows us to blame Obama and not be blamed for stopping legislation with the help of a few "moderate" democrats. When being blamed the GOP can say if Obama's idea's are so great, then why did ppl in his own party vote against his agenda? Or maybe he is looking like Carter of 1980.

If by "ppl in his own party" you mean a handful of conservative Democratic members of the House (and not enough to defeat anything of note from passing), and Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and occassionally Lincoln Davis in the Senate (40 GOP votes plus any 1 of these = successful filibuster), then you are right.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #4785 on: May 11, 2010, 02:24:12 pm »

Anyone else seeing a small but noticeable uptick in Obama's approval recently?

Here's the RCP average:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4786 on: May 11, 2010, 03:33:15 pm »

More of a decline in disapprovals. Approvals seem to be holding steady.

Same pattern in the Pollster.com average.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4787 on: May 12, 2010, 08:45:00 am »

Massachusetts (yawn!)

Massachusetts State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 10, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

42% Strongly approve
21% Somewhat approve
11% Somewhat disapprove
26% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

Approval only, as the effects of favorability and approval are easily normed:






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

37 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  164
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  20
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  18
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 35
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.
















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J. J.
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« Reply #4788 on: May 12, 2010, 08:47:49 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% -1

Disapprove 52% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +2.


There seems to be slight, but marked, erosion in Obama's "Strongly Approve" numbers.
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« Reply #4789 on: May 12, 2010, 11:21:32 am »

Guys, it's true that there's no such thing as a "generic Republican" but let's not be complete asses about this.  The ghost of Theodore Roosevelt/the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan is not the only person who can defeat Obama.  To suggest otherwise is ludicrous.

True, but "generic Republican" (or Democrat), usually does better in polling then an actual flesh and blood (ergo fallible) candidate.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4790 on: May 12, 2010, 12:52:59 pm »

Alaska (Rasmussen)Sad

39% Approve
61% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Alaska was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 6, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4791 on: May 12, 2010, 06:02:38 pm »

Alaska (Rasmussen)Sad

39% Approve
61% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Alaska was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 6, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

That's pretty good.
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« Reply #4792 on: May 12, 2010, 08:13:52 pm »

Alaska (Rasmussen)Sad

39% Approve
61% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Alaska was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 6, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

That's pretty good.
That's pretty good to be bad in Alaska!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4793 on: May 13, 2010, 08:30:58 am »

Kansas State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 11, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

21% Strongly approve
16% Somewhat approve
7% Somewhat disapprove
55% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure
Approval only, as the effects of favorability and approval are easily normed:






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

38 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  164
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  20
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  18
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 38
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.

















[/quote]
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J. J.
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« Reply #4794 on: May 13, 2010, 08:47:14 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% -1

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

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Devilman88
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« Reply #4795 on: May 13, 2010, 12:29:54 pm »

PPP- North Carolina Poll - Link

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not Sure.......................................................... 5%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4796 on: May 13, 2010, 01:15:02 pm »

New Hampshire (Rasmussen)Sad

50% Approve
50% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in New Hampshire was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, May 11, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4797 on: May 13, 2010, 01:23:09 pm »

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac)Sad

46% Approve
48% Disapprove

From May 4 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,161 Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1454
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4798 on: May 13, 2010, 01:44:14 pm »

Gallup:

51% Approve
42% Disapprove

The Economist/YouGov:

50% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://media.economist.com/images/pdf/Toplines20100512.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4799 on: May 13, 2010, 02:07:20 pm »
« Edited: May 14, 2010, 06:49:39 am by pbrower2a »

Q trims PA a bit; P in NC.

Approval only, as the effects of favorability and approval are easily normed:






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

38 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  164
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  20
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  18
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 38
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they demonstrable failures.
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