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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015346 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #4800 on: May 13, 2010, 02:09:41 pm »


I thought you might mix Rasmussen`s PA poll and the Quinnipiac poll, because they are from the same timespan ...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4801 on: May 13, 2010, 02:23:43 pm »


I thought you might mix Rasmussen`s PA poll and the Quinnipiac poll, because they are from the same timespan ...

Good idea, but PA gets polled often as it is.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #4802 on: May 13, 2010, 02:24:23 pm »

You didn't update NC

.
PPP- North Carolina Poll - Link

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not Sure.......................................................... 5%
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4803 on: May 14, 2010, 06:50:35 am »

You didn't update NC

.
PPP- North Carolina Poll - Link

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not Sure.......................................................... 5%


 I missed it, and then I updated it.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4804 on: May 14, 2010, 08:21:49 am »
« Edited: May 14, 2010, 03:39:30 pm by pbrower2a »

California State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 12, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

42% Strongly approve
19% Somewhat approve
6% Somewhat disapprove
30% Strongly disapprove
3% Not sure

Approval only, as the effects of favorability and approval are easily normed:






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

38 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  164
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  20
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  18
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 38
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4805 on: May 14, 2010, 09:15:02 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% u

Disapprove 53% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

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Derek
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« Reply #4806 on: May 14, 2010, 01:09:57 pm »

California State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 12, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

42% Strongly approve
19% Somewhat approve
6% Somewhat disapprove
30% Strongly disapprove
3% Not sure

Approval only, as the effects of favorability and approval are easily normed:






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

38 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  164
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  20
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  18
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 38
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.

Where the hell are you getting your numbers? He'd never win SC.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #4807 on: May 14, 2010, 01:34:58 pm »

Obama is up to 52% approval on Gallup. The highest of the year I believe.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #4808 on: May 14, 2010, 02:02:07 pm »

Obama is up to 52% approval on Gallup. The highest of the year I believe.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

The average of polls seems to show a positive trend, too, FWIW.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4809 on: May 14, 2010, 02:08:02 pm »

Obama is up to 52% approval on Gallup. The highest of the year I believe.

And only at 41% disapproval.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4810 on: May 14, 2010, 03:37:48 pm »

California State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 12, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

42% Strongly approve
19% Somewhat approve
6% Somewhat disapprove
30% Strongly disapprove
3% Not sure

Approval only, as the effects of favorability and approval are easily normed:






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

38 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  164
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  20
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  18
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 38
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.

Where the hell are you getting your numbers? He'd never win SC.

There hasn't been a poll for South Carolina since February.

 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #4811 on: May 14, 2010, 04:25:34 pm »

I've not really been paying attention, but since we're only about 2 years away from serious campaign season, I'll start paying attention. 

So who's really more trustworthy here? 

Rasmussen is showing Obama at -7

Gallup is showing him at +11

That's a huge difference, what are their methods if they are tracking this every day?  I'm inclined to believe Gallup more because they've been doing Presidential approval for almost a century now and I remember Rasmussen's numbers always seemingly to be skewed towards the GOP a bit. 
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Zarn
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« Reply #4812 on: May 15, 2010, 12:27:32 am »

I've not really been paying attention, but since we're only about 2 years away from serious campaign season, I'll start paying attention. 

So who's really more trustworthy here? 

Rasmussen is showing Obama at -7

Gallup is showing him at +11

That's a huge difference, what are their methods if they are tracking this every day?  I'm inclined to believe Gallup more because they've been doing Presidential approval for almost a century now and I remember Rasmussen's numbers always seemingly to be skewed towards the GOP a bit. 

Gallup had been several points off in 2008 in the Democratic direction. They are also using an adult model right now, which is not accurate at all. Many adults are not even registered voters. Rasmussen polls people that are known to actually go to the polls.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4813 on: May 15, 2010, 07:30:24 am »

I've not really been paying attention, but since we're only about 2 years away from serious campaign season, I'll start paying attention. 

So who's really more trustworthy here? 

Rasmussen is showing Obama at -7

Gallup is showing him at +11

That's a huge difference, what are their methods if they are tracking this every day?  I'm inclined to believe Gallup more because they've been doing Presidential approval for almost a century now and I remember Rasmussen's numbers always seemingly to be skewed towards the GOP a bit. 

Gallup had been several points off in 2008 in the Democratic direction. They are also using an adult model right now, which is not accurate at all. Many adults are not even registered voters. Rasmussen polls people that are known to actually go to the polls.

No model is perfect. Rasmussen has a "likely voter" screen that can't predict which new voters will vote and which old voters will leave the electorate due to an encounter with the Grim Reaper. Rasmussen may have been right on the odd-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia, but the 2012 election will be different from those -- much as was the 2008 election different from those two odd-year gubernatorial elections.

"Adults" can of course include people who don't vote.  Note well, though, that some of the votes of November 2012 are still 15 years old. 
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Vosem
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« Reply #4814 on: May 15, 2010, 08:27:36 am »

I've not really been paying attention, but since we're only about 2 years away from serious campaign season, I'll start paying attention. 

So who's really more trustworthy here? 

Rasmussen is showing Obama at -7

Gallup is showing him at +11

That's a huge difference, what are their methods if they are tracking this every day?  I'm inclined to believe Gallup more because they've been doing Presidential approval for almost a century now and I remember Rasmussen's numbers always seemingly to be skewed towards the GOP a bit. 

Gallup had been several points off in 2008 in the Democratic direction. They are also using an adult model right now, which is not accurate at all. Many adults are not even registered voters. Rasmussen polls people that are known to actually go to the polls.

No model is perfect. Rasmussen has a "likely voter" screen that can't predict which new voters will vote and which old voters will leave the electorate due to an encounter with the Grim Reaper. Rasmussen may have been right on the odd-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia, but the 2012 election will be different from those -- much as was the 2008 election different from those two odd-year gubernatorial elections.

"Adults" can of course include people who don't vote.  Note well, though, that some of the votes of November 2012 are still 15 years old. 

Similarly, the 2008 elections (which Rasmussen got right) were different from the 2004 elections (which Rasmussen also got right), because there were new voters in '08 and some old voters from '04 had an encounter with the Grim Reaper.

Every election has voters entering and leaving the electorate. Rasmussen has been getting elections right for the better part of the last decade.
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Derek
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« Reply #4815 on: May 15, 2010, 11:26:33 am »

Yep ^^ they are the best. Not to mention, they are the most conservative but I'm just saying, just saying. Maybe there's something to this conservatism. hmm.......
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J. J.
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« Reply #4816 on: May 15, 2010, 01:58:52 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +2

Disapprove 52% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.


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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4817 on: May 15, 2010, 02:20:25 pm »

Pennsyvlania Kos:

Obama: 46/47 favorable/unfavorable

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/5/12/PA/499
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J. J.
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« Reply #4818 on: May 16, 2010, 09:33:58 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% u

Disapprove 52% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #4819 on: May 16, 2010, 06:28:50 pm »

I've not really been paying attention, but since we're only about 2 years away from serious campaign season, I'll start paying attention. 

So who's really more trustworthy here? 

Rasmussen is showing Obama at -7

Gallup is showing him at +11

That's a huge difference, what are their methods if they are tracking this every day?  I'm inclined to believe Gallup more because they've been doing Presidential approval for almost a century now and I remember Rasmussen's numbers always seemingly to be skewed towards the GOP a bit. 

Somewhere in between the two. Honestly, I look at the pollster.com average, it mixes all these polls together. Right now it has Obama in positive territory, albeit narrowly.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4820 on: May 17, 2010, 10:08:31 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% -2

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4821 on: May 17, 2010, 10:30:46 am »

Gallup bumps around a lot based on random error and enthusiasm in its model.  Rasmussen weights enthusiasm out, though if it's continued enthusiasm, it always shows up in party ID over time.

Gallup is consistently going to show higher approval because it's adults vs. LV (it would be similar for adults vs. RV too).

Key thing in both polls is to look at the big picture (week by week or month by month0.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4822 on: May 17, 2010, 01:28:23 pm »
« Edited: May 17, 2010, 08:09:34 pm by pbrower2a »

This could be a fluke, but if it isn't, it portends a GOP disaster.  

Florida Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted May 16, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly

approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s

been doing?

32% Strongly approve

18% Somewhat approve

6% Somewhat disapprove

43% Strongly disapprove

1% Not sure

Approval only, as the effects of favorability and approval are easily normed:






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

38 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  164
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  68
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call  18
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 38
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.
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« Reply #4823 on: May 17, 2010, 01:41:26 pm »

who has been reelected with a 44% approval rating since they started keeping track of that?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4824 on: May 17, 2010, 01:56:28 pm »

who has been reelected with a 44% approval rating since they started keeping track of that?

That's about where George W. Bush was in the spring of 2008. He won, if feebly, despite being a weak campaigner. Incumbency gives any politician an advantage unless he is an  outright turkey -- and even if he is. Dubya was an awful President.

President Obama has plenty of time in which to fail as President, but I wouldn't bet against him now.
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