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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1014769 times)
xavier110
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« Reply #4825 on: May 17, 2010, 06:33:08 pm »

who has been reelected with a 44% approval rating since they started keeping track of that?

That's about where George W. Bush was in the spring of 2008. He won, if feebly, despite being a weak campaigner.

Freudian slip?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4826 on: May 17, 2010, 07:40:49 pm »

who has been reelected with a 44% approval rating since they started keeping track of that?

That's about where George W. Bush was in the spring of 2008. He won, if feebly, despite being a weak campaigner.

Freudian slip?

No. Just a plain, simple typo. 2004.

Dubya may have been dreadful, but he still won.

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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #4827 on: May 17, 2010, 11:18:34 pm »

who has been reelected with a 44% approval rating since they started keeping track of that?

That's about where George W. Bush was in the spring of 2008. He won, if feebly, despite being a weak campaigner.

Freudian slip?

No. Just a plain, simple typo. 2004.

Dubya may have been dreadful, but he still won.



Well there's still controversy to that (with the Ohio factor)
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Saxwsylvania
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« Reply #4828 on: May 17, 2010, 11:20:38 pm »

who has been reelected with a 44% approval rating since they started keeping track of that?

That's about where George W. Bush was in the spring of 2008. He won, if feebly, despite being a weak campaigner.

Freudian slip?

No. Just a plain, simple typo. 2004.

Dubya may have been dreadful, but he still won.



Well there's still controversy to that (with the Ohio factor)

No serious person thinks that Ohio was stolen in 2004.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4829 on: May 17, 2010, 11:44:59 pm »

Iowa (R2000/KCCI)Sad

53% Approve
43% Disapprove

DES MOINES, Iowa -- The Research 2000 Iowa Poll was conducted from May 3 through May 5, 2010. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.kcci.com/politics/23473645/detail.html

Source: Requested Obama approval ratings for IA and KY via email and this is what I got from R2000:

Did not ask in KY

IOWA

OBAMA JOB PERFORMANCE:

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

                                           APPROVE              DISAPPROVE              NOT SURE

                                                                               

ALL                                         53%                             43%                              4%

 

MEN                                       48%                             49%                              3%

WOMEN                                 58%                             37%                              5%

 

DEMOCRATS                        87%                             10%                              3%

REPUBLICANS                      15%                             82%                              3%

INDEPENDENTS                   52%                             42%                              6%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4830 on: May 17, 2010, 11:57:07 pm »

Also:

Texas (Rasmussen)Sad

42% Approve
57% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Texas was conducted on May 13, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4831 on: May 18, 2010, 07:21:51 am »
« Edited: May 18, 2010, 01:00:42 pm by pbrower2a »

Iowa, Texas

North Carolina corrected

New York (yawn!)

New York State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 12, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

40% Strongly approve
21% Somewhat approve
8% Somewhat disapprove
30% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

Approval only, as the effects of favorability and approval are easily normed:






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

38 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  171
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  68
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 80
white                        too close to call  3
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 38
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.

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Badger
badger
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« Reply #4832 on: May 18, 2010, 07:30:04 am »

who has been reelected with a 44% approval rating since they started keeping track of that?

That's about where George W. Bush was in the spring of 2008. He won, if feebly, despite being a weak campaigner.

Freudian slip?

No. Just a plain, simple typo. 2004.

Dubya may have been dreadful, but he still won.



Well there's still controversy to that (with the Ohio factor)

That's true. I have the Robert Kennedy Jr. article from Rolling Stone, plus a scholarly analysis on which the article is based, here in my office. It discusses my county among others in my region, and I can rebut it's misconceptions line by line from local knowledge.
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Derek
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« Reply #4833 on: May 18, 2010, 08:59:50 am »

25% strongly approve
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J. J.
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« Reply #4834 on: May 18, 2010, 09:26:54 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% -1

Disapprove 53% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +2.

Obama has taken a very big hit on strongly approve, but it might just be a bad sample.


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Derek
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« Reply #4835 on: May 18, 2010, 09:30:17 am »

yea those polls vary. He could be at 49% tomorrow.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4836 on: May 18, 2010, 10:15:28 am »

yea those polls vary. He could be at 49% tomorrow.

Probably not.

The other numbers have been fairly stable, about a 5 point range.  The 49% is at the upper end.

The 25% is low and outside of range.  We'll have to wait until, at most, Thursday to if it is real or not.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4837 on: May 18, 2010, 12:38:25 pm »

Gallup: 46 approval/ 46 disapproval
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #4838 on: May 18, 2010, 12:56:09 pm »

down 6 points in less than a week. Gallup toys with my emotions.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4839 on: May 18, 2010, 12:59:26 pm »

I think the Arizona immigration law is hurting Obama.
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Sbane
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« Reply #4840 on: May 18, 2010, 01:13:16 pm »

I think the Arizona immigration law is hurting Obama.
lol
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J. J.
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« Reply #4841 on: May 18, 2010, 01:31:49 pm »


That's why I stopped posting Gallup.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4842 on: May 18, 2010, 05:24:12 pm »

I think the Arizona immigration law is hurting Obama.

The GOP is playing with political dynamite. Should the GOP resort to racist and ethn ocentric demagoguery it stands to lose even more of its moderates.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4843 on: May 18, 2010, 05:54:14 pm »

Moderates love the Arizona immigration law.  check out the polls.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4844 on: May 18, 2010, 08:29:28 pm »

Moderates love the Arizona immigration law.  check out the polls.

It gets watered down into something not troubling to civil libertarians (for example, police start asking questions about citizenship status on anyone arrested for any felony offense once someone is in "intake") or some egregious case draws the predictable attention of the ACLU and fails to pass Constitutional tests.

Don't you want illegal aliens to talk to the police when they are victims of crimes -- or do you want them to fear deportation if they go to the law to report crimes?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4845 on: May 19, 2010, 08:35:34 am »

Connecticut (Rasmussen)Sad

59% Approve
39% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Connecticut was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 18, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

.....

National:

44% Approve (-1)
55% Disapprove (+2)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4846 on: May 19, 2010, 08:47:51 am »

Arizona Republicans (Rasmussen)Sad

10% Approve
88% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 541 Likely GOP Voters in Arizona was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 17, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link
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J. J.
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« Reply #4847 on: May 19, 2010, 08:58:10 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44% -1

Disapprove 55% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +2.

Again, it could be a bad sample.
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Franzl
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« Reply #4848 on: May 19, 2010, 09:12:43 am »

I don't understand the national numbers against the state numbers. The state numbers seem as high as ever....sometimes even higher than they should be.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #4849 on: May 19, 2010, 09:34:40 am »

Arizona Republicans (Rasmussen)Sad

10% Approve
88% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 541 Likely GOP Voters in Arizona was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 17, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link

Damn, that sure won't do the Dems any good in the Southwest.  And to think some were actually hoping that the GOP would lose the seat in November.
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