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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015334 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #4900 on: May 24, 2010, 12:18:32 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44% -1

Disapprove 55% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.


There is erosion in the base.

It's the oil spill.  When that blows over in the media it will come back up a little bit.  As of right now, it doesn't seem like calling the spill "Obama's Katrina" (as retarded as it is) is helping him at all. 

And Rasmussen is probably a little more to the right, so I'd put his approval probably around 47-48. 

Not really.  Obama's strongly approve numbers were lower prior to Obamacare.  They "spiked" then pulled back a bit.  It really has only been in the last ten days or so that there has been this erosion.  I think the oil spill started 35 days ago, and for the first 20 or so days, those numbers didn't decline.

Now, the oil spill hasn't helped, but it doesn't directly look like the cause.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4901 on: May 24, 2010, 01:54:47 pm »

Washington (University of WA)Sad

58% Approve
39% Disapprove

http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/MAY2010.pdf
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Jbrase
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« Reply #4902 on: May 24, 2010, 02:25:46 pm »
« Edited: May 24, 2010, 02:27:26 pm by SE Gov. JBrase »

WA & AL


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4903 on: May 24, 2010, 02:38:50 pm »

where are ppl getting the add 10 points to the approval? Just for the sake of doing it?

pbrower introduced us to the add 6 rule, where you add six to the approvals to get what percentage the incumbent will get in an election. I decided I would be a smart ass and add 10. I just made that up.

If you do not add at least 15 yuo aer a rethuglican HACK

It's Nate Silver -- not I -- who suggests the 6% addition to the a[[roval rating six months or so before the re-election bid of an incumbent politician.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4904 on: May 24, 2010, 02:41:16 pm »
« Edited: May 24, 2010, 04:23:15 pm by pbrower2a »

Washington update (AL is favorability, and not usable).

Georgia Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 20, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

29% Strongly approve
12% Somewhat approve
7% Somewhat disapprove
51% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure:




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

39 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have just adjusted the colors for "medium" blue to create a sharper contrast.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  171
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  30
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 128
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.


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Vepres
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« Reply #4905 on: May 24, 2010, 02:52:07 pm »

WA & AL


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

So this would be the map if the election were tomorrow given the approvals:

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Jbrase
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« Reply #4906 on: May 24, 2010, 03:18:12 pm »


So this would be the map if the election were tomorrow given the approvals:



No, remember you have to factor in the age wave and the plus 6 rule, so this should be a little bit more accurate

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4907 on: May 25, 2010, 12:37:07 am »

New Jersey (SurveyUSA, May 14-16, 600 state adults)Sad

54% Approve (+1)
42% Disapprove (-2)

(Gov. Christie)

33% Approve (nc)
62% Disapprove (-1)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=011780b6-2dff-4b36-ae68-b5dcfc500cb0

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1c5092ac-bdc9-4632-a9ab-17d8fd8e08db

This is the second time they polled Obama`s approval in New Jersey, but they didn´t post the April numbers on their website.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #4908 on: May 25, 2010, 01:05:40 am »

NJ, no change on the map


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4909 on: May 25, 2010, 03:48:54 am »

New Jersey (SurveyUSA, May 14-16, 600 state adults)Sad

54% Approve (+1)
42% Disapprove (-2)

(Gov. Christie)

33% Approve (nc)
62% Disapprove (-1)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=011780b6-2dff-4b36-ae68-b5dcfc500cb0

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1c5092ac-bdc9-4632-a9ab-17d8fd8e08db

This is the second time they polled Obama`s approval in New Jersey, but they didn´t post the April numbers on their website.

The failure that is Chris Christie may be causing people to look at Obama a little more favorably there.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4910 on: May 25, 2010, 09:19:05 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42% -2

Disapprove 56% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.


The erosion of the base is obviously there.  It is too early to tell, but there might be erosion in his other numbers as well.

Three things to note:

1.  Obama's disapproval numbers are tied for his highest number.

2.  Obama's "Approve" numbers are now lower than his "Strongly Disapprove" numbers.

3.  This could very easily a skewed sample.
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« Reply #4911 on: May 25, 2010, 10:11:23 am »

(Gov. Christie)

33% Approve (nc)
62% Disapprove (-1)

rofl
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Vepres
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« Reply #4912 on: May 25, 2010, 11:17:57 am »

New Jersey (SurveyUSA, May 14-16, 600 state adults)Sad

54% Approve (+1)
42% Disapprove (-2)

(Gov. Christie)

33% Approve (nc)
62% Disapprove (-1)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=011780b6-2dff-4b36-ae68-b5dcfc500cb0

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1c5092ac-bdc9-4632-a9ab-17d8fd8e08db

This is the second time they polled Obama`s approval in New Jersey, but they didn´t post the April numbers on their website.

The failure that is Chris Christie may be causing people to look at Obama a little more favorably there.

Making tough and unpopular decisions isn't failure.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4913 on: May 25, 2010, 12:29:46 pm »

Oregon Governor

Survey of 500 Likely Voters

May 20, 2010

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

37% Strongly approve

15% Somewhat approve

8% Somewhat disapprove

41% Strongly disapprove

0% Not sure

Also an update of New Jersey,  which has been polled little since the special gubernatorial election




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Forty states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have just adjusted the colors for "medium" blue to create a sharper contrast.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  178
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  37
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 128
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

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Rowan
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« Reply #4914 on: May 25, 2010, 01:57:32 pm »

FDU has Christie's approval at 44/42, so who knows what SUSA is smoking.
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Umengus
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« Reply #4915 on: May 25, 2010, 03:05:37 pm »

FDU has Christie's approval at 44/42, so who knows what SUSA is smoking.

And Rasmussen has the cristie approval in 50's. Susa is very curious on Cristie. And I think very wrong.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4916 on: May 25, 2010, 07:46:03 pm »


Hey, that's an improvement (technically)!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4917 on: May 25, 2010, 07:46:51 pm »

FDU has Christie's approval at 44/42, so who knows what SUSA is smoking.

And you are trusting a uni poll over SUSA why exactly?
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Rowan
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« Reply #4918 on: May 25, 2010, 07:58:13 pm »

FDU has Christie's approval at 44/42, so who knows what SUSA is smoking.

And you are trusting a uni poll over SUSA why exactly?

Because they have a long history of polling in New Jersey.
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Derek
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« Reply #4919 on: May 25, 2010, 09:46:31 pm »

Anyone see how 43% blame Obama and 48% blame Bush. He's catching up.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4920 on: May 26, 2010, 08:34:44 am »

FDU has Christie's approval at 44/42, so who knows what SUSA is smoking.

And you are trusting a uni poll over SUSA why exactly?

Because they have a long history of polling in New Jersey.

Fact: FDU sucks.

Just a note, Survey USA frequently reports wildly different approval numbers from other pollsters. That's not to say SUSA is more or less accurate. Instead, it's to say that you probably shouldn't compare SUSA numbers against the numbers you get from other polls for the purposes of conducting trendlines.

I think it's a function of SUSA's binary choice: You can either approve of the pol or disapprove. Those are your options. Most other pollsters, like Ras, give you the option to modify your disapproval with words like "somewhat."
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J. J.
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« Reply #4921 on: May 26, 2010, 08:50:43 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43% +1

Disapprove 56% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +1.

It still could be a bad sample.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4922 on: May 26, 2010, 10:32:49 am »

Minnesota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 24, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

36% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
34% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Forty states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have just adjusted the colors for "medium" blue to create a sharper contrast.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  188
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  27
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 128
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #4923 on: May 26, 2010, 11:32:13 am »

OR & MN


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4924 on: May 26, 2010, 12:42:16 pm »

California˛:

Rasmussen: 55% Approve, 42% Disapprove

Link

PPP: 49% Approve, 42% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CA_526.pdf
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