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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015986 times)
HokeyDood
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« Reply #4925 on: May 26, 2010, 03:29:48 pm »

Minnesota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 24, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

36% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
34% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Forty states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have just adjusted the colors for "medium" blue to create a sharper contrast.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  188
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  27
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 128
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

I love Minnesota
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Jbrase
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« Reply #4926 on: May 26, 2010, 06:12:17 pm »
« Edited: May 26, 2010, 06:53:24 pm by SE Gov. JBrase »

CA (using the Rasmussen poll)


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Smid
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« Reply #4927 on: May 26, 2010, 06:22:17 pm »

Any reason you took one CA poll over the other? The other one intuitively looks more accurate to me.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #4928 on: May 26, 2010, 06:49:49 pm »

Any reason you took one CA poll over the other? The other one intuitively looks more accurate to me.
The PPP one is more than likely the more accurate of the two, but with so many people claiming Rasmussen polls show inaccurate numbers favoring those on the right, I just had to use the PPP poll Tongue

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4929 on: May 26, 2010, 08:16:27 pm »

CA update:  I could average P and R and get the same result with R alone. The huge gap of undecided in California  according toP causes me to prefer R. 




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Forty states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have just adjusted the colors for "medium" blue to create a sharper contrast.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  188
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  27
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 128
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4930 on: May 27, 2010, 08:36:41 am »
« Edited: May 27, 2010, 08:38:18 am by pbrower2a »

Wisconsin State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 25, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

32% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
41% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Forty states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have just adjusted the colors for "medium" blue to create a sharper contrast.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  188
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  37
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 118
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

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J. J.
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« Reply #4931 on: May 27, 2010, 09:14:12 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% +2

Disapprove 53% -3


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -3.

A bad sample has dropped off, though Obama's numbers have still shown erosion over the past two weeks.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4932 on: May 27, 2010, 12:40:45 pm »

Alabama (Rasmussen)Sad

40% Approve
59% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Alabama was conducted on May 25, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

New Mexico (Rasmussen)Sad

49% Approve
51% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in New Mexico was conducted on May 25, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4933 on: May 27, 2010, 12:49:41 pm »

South Carolina (PPP)Sad

43% Approve
51% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 1,255 South Carolina voters, with a margin of error of +/-2.8%, from May 22nd to 23rd. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_527.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4934 on: May 27, 2010, 01:02:40 pm »

New Jersey (FDU)Sad

49% Approve
40% Disapprove

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from May 19, 2010, through May 23, 2010, using a randomly selected sample of 654 registered voters statewide. The margin of error for a sample of 654 randomly selected respondents is +/- 4 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/slides
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Jbrase
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« Reply #4935 on: May 27, 2010, 01:29:29 pm »

AL, SC, NM, NJ, & WI


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Zarn
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« Reply #4936 on: May 27, 2010, 01:56:15 pm »

Yay NJ. This will prob stand for about 3 days. lol
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4937 on: May 27, 2010, 02:44:10 pm »

AL, NM, SC -- NJ too many undecided.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  42
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 122
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  68
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.


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Jbrase
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« Reply #4938 on: May 27, 2010, 03:12:14 pm »

AL, NM, SC -- NJ too many undecided.

11% is too many?
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #4939 on: May 27, 2010, 03:44:46 pm »


pbrower, NJ is about 50% registered independents with so many state issues that pre-occupy us.  11% undecided is probably very accurate. 
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4940 on: May 27, 2010, 04:10:46 pm »

The random, yet amazingly always pro-Obama reasons pbrower finds for rejecting polls from his list are almost as amusing as his conclusions.
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yougo1000
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« Reply #4941 on: May 27, 2010, 04:29:10 pm »

Gallup

Approve 46%
Disapprove 47%
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Vosem
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« Reply #4942 on: May 28, 2010, 05:29:11 am »

AL, SC, NM, NJ, & WI


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Took these numbers, translated them into an election map. Got this:



Republican 293
Democrat 245
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J. J.
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« Reply #4943 on: May 28, 2010, 11:37:14 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +3

Disapprove 51% -2


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -2.

Even though there are good numbers, there is still erosion on the Strongly Approve numbers over the last two weeks.
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Edu
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« Reply #4944 on: May 28, 2010, 12:30:38 pm »

I just looked at some the Rasmussen polls you posted during the past 2 or 3 months and the 28% number of strongly approve seems to be consistent with what he had before (as far as i can tell these past 2 months he was always hovering from 26% or 27% to 30% or 31%).
Not saying you are wrong or anything, but i just don't really see an "erosion".
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4945 on: May 28, 2010, 12:47:25 pm »

Washington (Rasmussen)Sad

53% Approve
46% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Washington was conducted on May 26, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

South Dakota (Rasmussen)Sad

43% Approve
56% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in South Dakota was conducted on May 26, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
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Sbane
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« Reply #4946 on: May 28, 2010, 12:54:04 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +3

Disapprove 51% -2


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -2.

Even though there are good numbers, there is still erosion on the Strongly Approve numbers over the last two weeks.

If the response to the oil spill has hurt Obama, it is most likely with his base. This is why you may be seeing the slight erosion in his strongly approve numbers. And perhaps he is gaining some back due to him being slightly more aggressive with BP. Though at the end of the day these people will vote Democrat. Of course they might not turn out in the midterms.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4947 on: May 28, 2010, 01:04:49 pm »

We also have:

Ohio (University of Cincinnati)Sad

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

A random sample of 668 likely voters from throughout the state was interviewed by landline and cellular telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.8 percent.

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op052810.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4948 on: May 28, 2010, 01:13:56 pm »






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  42
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 122
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  68
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yetaccounted for is Virginia.



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Jbrase
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« Reply #4949 on: May 28, 2010, 02:07:00 pm »

OH, SD, & WA


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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