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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016108 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #4950 on: May 28, 2010, 02:07:42 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +3

Disapprove 51% -2


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -2.

Even though there are good numbers, there is still erosion on the Strongly Approve numbers over the last two weeks.

Maybe sending some troops to the border has helped his numbers a bit, because the measure is popular with voters, says Rasmussen.

But Gallup has moved down, so it could just be some movement.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4951 on: May 28, 2010, 02:39:44 pm »

But Gallup has moved down, so it could just be some movement.

Logic suggests there would be some downward pressure on his numbers from growing concerns and unhappiness with the way the BP oil spill is being handled by the government and Obama's reaction to it. Then again, like you suggested about sending troops... *shrug*

That being said, all the movement is at the margins, and unless we see declines across the board, it's impossible to know if there's even a decline at all. Such is polling.  :/
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4952 on: May 28, 2010, 02:58:50 pm »

But Gallup has moved down, so it could just be some movement.

Logic suggests there would be some downward pressure on his numbers from growing concerns and unhappiness with the way the BP oil spill is being handled by the government and Obama's reaction to it. Then again, like you suggested about sending troops... *shrug*

That being said, all the movement is at the margins, and unless we see declines across the board, it's impossible to know if there's even a decline at all. Such is polling.  :/

Stop making so much sense.
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yougo1000
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« Reply #4953 on: May 28, 2010, 03:01:09 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2010, 04:21:44 pm by yougo1000 »

OH, SD, & WA


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Changed it to a map. NOTE: Didn't change PV numbers.

289-249

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izixs
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« Reply #4954 on: May 28, 2010, 04:20:54 pm »

What happened in Iowa?
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yougo1000
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« Reply #4955 on: May 28, 2010, 04:21:51 pm »

Sorry
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J. J.
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« Reply #4956 on: May 28, 2010, 10:44:52 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +3

Disapprove 51% -2


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -2.

Even though there are good numbers, there is still erosion on the Strongly Approve numbers over the last two weeks.

If the response to the oil spill has hurt Obama, it is most likely with his base. This is why you may be seeing the slight erosion in his strongly approve numbers. And perhaps he is gaining some back due to him being slightly more aggressive with BP. Though at the end of the day these people will vote Democrat. Of course they might not turn out in the midterms.

It occurred about 3-4 weeks into the spill, and it isn't rebounding as of yet.  Yet, it is limited to his Strongly Approved numbers, so far.  It isn't translating into solidly higher disapproval numbers.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4957 on: May 29, 2010, 08:50:32 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% u

Disapprove 52% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

It is possible that there is a skewed pro-Obama in there.
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muon2
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« Reply #4958 on: May 30, 2010, 05:47:37 am »

OH, SD, & WA


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Changed it to a map. NOTE: Didn't change PV numbers.

289-249



Your should shift it to 293-245 to account for EV changes before 2012.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4959 on: May 30, 2010, 09:33:13 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% -1

Disapprove 52% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

If it is a bad sample, we should see Obama's Strongly Approve numbers drop tomorrow.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4960 on: May 30, 2010, 11:41:08 pm »

NC State Senate District 8 (SurveyUSA)Sad

39% Approve
57% Disapprove

http://www.nccivitas.org/files/SurveyUSA%208.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #4961 on: May 31, 2010, 09:35:05 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% -1

Disapprove 54% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

A bad sample is dropping off.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4962 on: May 31, 2010, 12:32:36 pm »

New   Hampshire

Survey of 500 Likely Voters


May 26, 2010

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       31% Strongly approve

       14% Somewhat approve

         9% Somewhat disapprove

       45% Strongly disapprove

         0% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  38
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 126
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  68
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.




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Jbrase
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« Reply #4963 on: May 31, 2010, 11:38:10 pm »

NH


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4964 on: June 01, 2010, 07:17:43 am »
« Edited: June 01, 2010, 03:43:33 pm by pbrower2a »

[Rhode Island State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 27, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

33% Strongly approve
22% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
31% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

       31% Strongly approve

       14% Somewhat approve

         9% Somewhat disapprove

       45% Strongly disapprove

         0% Not sure

South Dakota General Election

Survey of 500 Likely Voters

May 27, 2010

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       27% Strongly approve

       16% Somewhat approve

         9% Somewhat disapprove

       47% Strongly disapprove

         0% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 129
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  68
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.





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Jbrase
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« Reply #4965 on: June 01, 2010, 09:39:34 am »

RI


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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J. J.
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« Reply #4966 on: June 01, 2010, 12:05:07 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% u

Disapprove 54% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

That was easy.  Smiley


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« Reply #4967 on: June 01, 2010, 05:15:33 pm »

Obama approval rating May 2010 (gallup):

48% Approve
44% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 42/43 (May 1978)
Reagan: 45/45 (May 1982)
Bush I: 65/20 (May 1990)
Clinton: 51/42 (May 1994)
Bush II: 76/18 (May 2002)

Obama's approval rating has actually been amazingly stable since December:

Dec. 50/43
Jan. 49/44
Feb. 50/43
Mar. 48/44
Apr. 49/45
May 48/44
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J. J.
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« Reply #4968 on: June 02, 2010, 10:02:37 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% u

Disapprove 53% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4969 on: June 02, 2010, 10:09:19 am »

Obama approval rating May 2010 (gallup):

48% Approve
44% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 42/43 (May 1978)
Reagan: 45/45 (May 1982)
Bush I: 65/20 (May 1990)
Clinton: 51/42 (May 1994)
Bush II: 76/18 (May 2002)

Obama's approval rating has actually been amazingly stable since December:

Dec. 50/43
Jan. 49/44
Feb. 50/43
Mar. 48/44
Apr. 49/45
May 48/44

The thing I've found the most interesting is his high negatives, which has been repeated on Rasmussen's Daily.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4970 on: June 02, 2010, 11:50:02 am »

First June poll (letter F):

Kentucky Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted June 1, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       21% Strongly approve
       16% Somewhat approve
       12% Somewhat disapprove
       51% Strongly disapprove
         0% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 129
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  68
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  58
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 54
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.





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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4971 on: June 02, 2010, 03:34:55 pm »

So, Obama's been stuck at about 50-50 for the last six months (at minimum).  What a surprise - I've been saying that myself.

FYI - there's a real reason why this is occurring.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #4972 on: June 02, 2010, 05:13:35 pm »

So, Obama's been stuck at about 50-50 for the last six months (at minimum).  What a surprise - I've been saying that myself.

FYI - there's a real reason why this is occurring.

Which is?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4973 on: June 02, 2010, 09:37:49 pm »

So, Obama's been stuck at about 50-50 for the last six months (at minimum).  What a surprise - I've been saying that myself.

FYI - there's a real reason why this is occurring.

Which is?

Be patient.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4974 on: June 03, 2010, 08:39:29 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +2

Disapprove 52% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

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