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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016175 times)
Oakvale
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« Reply #4975 on: June 03, 2010, 08:52:01 am »

So, Obama's been stuck at about 50-50 for the last six months (at minimum).  What a surprise - I've been saying that myself.

FYI - there's a real reason why this is occurring.

God forbid you actually tell us mere mortals said "real reason".
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Special K
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« Reply #4976 on: June 03, 2010, 10:19:47 am »

He just keeps going down, down, down.

The only "real reason" his #s are so bad and getting worse is because he doesn't appear to have a clue as to what he's doing.  Maybe he does, but the appearance he's given off is that he doesn't.  From the economy, to the oil spill, to health care, the president seems more and more out of the loop; he's screwed up one thing after another.  In fact, the only thing he's really delivered on is "don't ask, don't tell" and that's not even a done deal yet (to no fault of the president).

I've always said he's going to get reelected if for no other reason than the Republicans simply don't have a good candidate.  Well, that may not matter anymore.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4977 on: June 03, 2010, 10:33:28 am »

Connecticut State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 1, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

29% Strongly approve
27% Somewhat approve
11% Somewhat disapprove
32% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 129
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  68
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  58
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 54
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.






[/quote]
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4978 on: June 03, 2010, 10:51:12 am »

He just keeps going down, down, down.

There has been very little movement in recent months, so no, not really.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4979 on: June 03, 2010, 11:32:34 am »

Missouri (Rasmussen)Sad

46% Approve
54% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Missouri was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, June 2, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

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Special K
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« Reply #4980 on: June 03, 2010, 01:44:51 pm »

He just keeps going down, down, down.

There has been very little movement in recent months, so no, not really.

I didn't say "recent months."  I didn't specify any time frame actually.  His downward trend has been more gradual, it's true.  But nevertheless, he has seen little more than a steady decline that keeps declining.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4981 on: June 03, 2010, 03:13:55 pm »

Michigan (PPP)Sad

46% Approve
50% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 890 Michigan voters from May 25th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_603.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #4982 on: June 03, 2010, 03:34:40 pm »

He just keeps going down, down, down.

There has been very little movement in recent months, so no, not really.

Yeh, I'm seeing a slight decline, but nothing great.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #4983 on: June 03, 2010, 04:46:21 pm »

KY, CT, MO, & MI


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4984 on: June 03, 2010, 08:10:02 pm »

So, Obama's been stuck at about 50-50 for the last six months (at minimum).  What a surprise - I've been saying that myself.

FYI - there's a real reason why this is occurring.

God forbid you actually tell us mere mortals said "real reason".

I really do enjoy this, too much actually.

One of these days I think I'm going to write something about the immovable 48.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4985 on: June 04, 2010, 07:44:16 am »

PA (Rasmussen)Sad

48% Approve
52% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on June 2, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

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J. J.
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« Reply #4986 on: June 04, 2010, 09:35:21 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% u

Disapprove 52% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

The new normal.  What has really moved in the last month is the "Strongly Approve" number.


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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4987 on: June 04, 2010, 11:46:17 am »

IN (Rasmussen)Sad

41% Approve
58% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Indiana was conducted on June 2-3, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4988 on: June 04, 2010, 12:00:15 pm »


IN, MI, MO, PA updates:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  19
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  69
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 54
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4989 on: June 04, 2010, 12:02:35 pm »

NM (Rasmussen)Sad

52% Approve
48% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in New Mexico was conducted on June 3, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4990 on: June 04, 2010, 12:27:12 pm »

IA (PPP)Sad

43% Approve
52% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 1,277 Iowa voters from May 25th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey was +/-2.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_604.pdf
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Jbrase
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« Reply #4991 on: June 04, 2010, 12:45:30 pm »

IA, NM, PA, & IN


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4992 on: June 04, 2010, 06:09:52 pm »
« Edited: June 04, 2010, 06:41:39 pm by pbrower2a »

Iowa hard to believe, NM makes sense:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  176
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  24
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 151
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  52
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  69
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 54
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.


[/quote]
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4993 on: June 04, 2010, 09:39:55 pm »

Going to make an update for May tomorrow.  It will read...

ALL POLLS:  48% Approve, 49% Disapprove (from 48% Approve, 48% Disapprove)
W/O RASMUSSEN:  47% Approve, 47% Disapprove (from 48% Approve, 46% Disapprove)
RASMUSSEN LAST POLL/COMBINED LAST THREE:  49% Approve, 50% Disapprove (unchanged)
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Alcon
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« Reply #4994 on: June 04, 2010, 11:24:31 pm »

Sam, is there still a real reason this is occurring, or is there now a fake reason?  Please advise.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4995 on: June 05, 2010, 08:46:07 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% -3

Disapprove 54% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4996 on: June 05, 2010, 08:50:27 am »

Sam, is there still a real reason this is occurring, or is there now a fake reason?  Please advise.

There's both a real and a fake reason.  Can't figure out why.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #4997 on: June 06, 2010, 12:26:01 am »

Sam, is there still a real reason this is occurring, or is there now a fake reason?  Please advise.

There's both a real and a fake reason.  Can't figure out why.

Maybe just a proportionate number of Americans shift their views and keep the scales balanced.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4998 on: June 06, 2010, 12:29:20 am »

IA (PPP)Sad

43% Approve
52% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 1,277 Iowa voters from May 25th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey was +/-2.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_604.pdf

Iīve sent R2000 an email if they polled Obama`s approval in Iowa for KCCI.

Letīs see which results they have.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4999 on: June 06, 2010, 08:18:32 am »

IA (PPP)Sad

43% Approve
52% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 1,277 Iowa voters from May 25th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey was +/-2.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_604.pdf

Iīve sent R2000 an email if they polled Obama`s approval in Iowa for KCCI.

Letīs see which results they have.

Just got the email and they didnīt poll Obama`s approval rating for KCCI ... Sad
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