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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015300 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #5000 on: June 06, 2010, 09:11:15 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% +1

Disapprove 54% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5001 on: June 06, 2010, 03:39:05 pm »
« Edited: June 06, 2010, 05:19:14 pm by Sam Spade »

Prior Months State-by-State Approvals Posts (meaning this month's one is coming up soon)

May 2010
1) ALL POLLS
2) RASMUSSEN LAST 3 POLLS
3) RASMUSSEN LAST POLL
4) ALL NON-RASMUSSEN POLLS

April 2010
1) ALL POLLS
2) RASMUSSEN LAST 3 POLLS
3) RASMUSSEN LAST POLL
4) ALL NON-RASMUSSEN POLLS
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5002 on: June 06, 2010, 04:46:13 pm »
« Edited: June 06, 2010, 06:06:58 pm by Sam Spade »

Obama Job Approval chart - ALL POLLS
Updated June 6, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- All polls per state done in last six weeks (must be started after March 29 for this week), maximum one poll per firm.
- Other polls done in last six months can be included, but no more than three polls per state can be outside the six week envelope and if more than three polls done in last six weeks, no polls before that.  (also if one poll done in last six weeks, then only two can be included in six month period, two polls, then one, etc).
- No favorable polls; no excellent/good/fair/poor polls; no Rutgers-Eagleton/Strategic Vision/any other questionable company; no partisan/internals, my judgment as to what is prevails
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Virginia Gov/Massachusetts Special polls ignored.  New Jersey Gov polls wouldn't be included under the methodology anyways.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama339%58%39%37%42%
Alaska238%59%38%36%28%
Arizona242%56%45%44%45%
Arkansas336%62%39%45%46%
California453%42%61%54%53%
Colorado245%53%54%47%42%
Connecticut355%41%61%54%56%
DC0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware154%46%62%53%55%
Florida349%46%51%47%49%
Georgia342%56%47%41%43%
Hawaii177%23%72%54%56%
Idaho233%62%36%30%28%
Illinois256%41%62%55%55%
Indiana238%58%50%39%41%
Iowa348%49%54%49%49%
Kansas235%64%42%37%37%
Kentucky337%60%41%40%41%
Louisiana140%59%40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland359%35%62%56%57%
Massachusetts163%37%62%62%60%
Michigan248%50%57%51%51%
Minnesota252%48%54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri345%53%49%46%47%
Montana0NoneNone47%39%33%
Nebraska138%61%42%33%33%
Nevada246%52%55%48%46%
New Hampshire347%50%54%50%47%
New Jersey352%40%57%53%56%
New Mexico249%48%57%49%48%
New York358%39%63%58%60%
North Carolina346%51%50%44%43%
North Dakota141%57%45%36%33%
Ohio346%50%51%49%46%
Oklahoma237%60%34%34%38%
Oregon252%47%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania346%50%54%51%51%
Rhode Island155%43%63%59%61%
South Carolina246%46%45%41%41%
South Dakota242%54%45%38%38%
Tennessee239%57%42%43%47%
Texas337%59%44%38%38%
Utah129%69%34%26%26%
Vermont262%36%67%59%51%
Virginia246%53%53%45%44%
Washington353%44%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin346%49%56%50%48%
Wyoming131%68%33%29%28%
NATIONAL48%49%53%48%48%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5003 on: June 06, 2010, 05:18:30 pm »
« Edited: June 06, 2010, 06:05:26 pm by Sam Spade »

Obama Job Approval chart - RASMUSSEN LAST 3 POLLS
Updated June 6, 2010

Methodology (at this point - will probably start narrowing closer to 2010 elections)

- This chart covers an average of the last two/three Rasmussen polls within the last six months, or simply the last poll if no poll exists in that time frame.
- National number is an amalgamation of 2008/2004 turnout with certain additional variables.
- Massachusetts Special polls ignored.

State# of PollsObama ApprovalObama Disapproval2008 Obama2004 Kerry2000 Gore
Alabama241%59%39%37%42%
Alaska139%61%38%36%28%
Arizona338%61%45%44%45%
Arkansas335%64%39%45%46%
California359%39%61%54%53%
Colorado344%56%54%47%42%
Connecticut356%42%61%54%56%
DC0NoneNone92%89%85%
Delaware352%48%62%53%55%
Florida347%51%51%47%49%
Georgia342%56%47%41%43%
Hawaii177%23%72%54%56%
Idaho130%70%36%30%28%
Illinois358%41%62%55%55%
Indiana341%58%50%39%41%
Iowa348%51%54%49%49%
Kansas240%60%42%37%37%
Kentucky338%62%41%40%41%
Louisiana338%61%40%42%45%
Maine0NoneNone58%54%49%
Maryland259%40%62%56%57%
Massachusetts358%42%62%62%60%
Michigan249%50%57%51%51%
Minnesota351%48%54%51%48%
Mississippi0NoneNone43%40%41%
Missouri343%56%49%46%47%
Montana0NoneNone47%39%33%
Nebraska138%61%42%33%33%
Nevada345%55%55%48%46%
New Hampshire348%51%54%50%47%
New Jersey153%47%57%53%56%
New Mexico352%48%57%49%48%
New York357%42%63%58%60%
North Carolina342%57%50%44%43%
North Dakota343%55%45%36%33%
Ohio347%52%51%49%46%
Oklahoma138%62%34%34%38%
Oregon354%46%57%51%47%
Pennsylvania348%50%54%51%51%
Rhode Island358%41%63%59%61%
South Carolina0NoneNone45%41%41%
South Dakota344%55%45%38%38%
Tennessee136%62%42%43%47%
Texas340%59%44%38%38%
Utah129%69%34%26%26%
Vermont160%39%67%59%51%
Virginia249%51%53%45%44%
Washington354%45%57%53%50%
West Virginia0NoneNone43%43%46%
Wisconsin350%50%56%50%48%
Wyoming131%68%33%29%28%
NATIONAL49%50%53%48%48%
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5004 on: June 07, 2010, 11:46:34 am »
« Edited: June 07, 2010, 05:20:30 pm by pbrower2a »

Ohio update from Rasmussen:

Ohio Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     34% Strongly approve
     15% Somewhat approve
       8% Somewhat disapprove
     42% Strongly disapprove
      0% Not sure

Dead heat in the Senate race to replace retiring Senator Voinovich, by the way.

The Iowa poll was obsolete.

Alabama Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       29% Strongly approve
       11% Somewhat approve
         8% Somewhat disapprove
       50% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  19
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  69
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 54
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.


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Jbrase
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« Reply #5005 on: June 07, 2010, 11:54:27 am »

OH


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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J. J.
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« Reply #5006 on: June 07, 2010, 05:42:23 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% U

Disapprove 53% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.


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Ameriplan
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« Reply #5007 on: June 07, 2010, 09:14:46 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% U

Disapprove 53% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.




Very interesting because that means that people who have stronger opinions are more likely to turn out and vote against.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5008 on: June 08, 2010, 07:44:17 am »

NC (Rasmussen)Sad

45% Approve
55% Disapprove

This state survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on June 3, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5009 on: June 08, 2010, 07:46:48 am »

North Carolina Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

30% Strongly approve
15% Somewhat approve
11% Somewhat disapprove
44% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  19
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  69
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 54
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.



[/quote]
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5010 on: June 08, 2010, 07:57:39 am »

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.

Yeah, and we probably won´t get anything from there until after November because there is no statewide election this year and PPP only wants to poll states that have a statewide election this year. Maybe Rasmussen will poll it some time in the next months to show us how Gov. McDonnell is doing these days.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5011 on: June 08, 2010, 07:59:29 am »


Why ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5012 on: June 08, 2010, 08:54:26 am »

Obama at 49-50 (+3, -3) today on Rasmussen.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5013 on: June 08, 2010, 09:06:24 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49% +3

Disapprove 50% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.


A good Obama sample, but that Strongly Approve number is still showing a drop.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5014 on: June 08, 2010, 12:36:06 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49% +3

Disapprove 50% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.


A good Obama sample, but that Strongly Approve number is still showing a drop.

49% approval for an incumbent before the electoral campaign begins in earnest almost always implies a victory. There will be those who won't be happy with either the incumbent or the challenger, and will hibernate in the election. George W. Bush had lower approvals throughout most of 2004 and still won despite having a high rate of "strong disapproval".

That of course is also before the campaign apparatus comes out of mothballs, and we all know how good the Obama campaign was in 2008. That is before we know who the GOP nominee is and what weaknesses he has ... and how the Obama campaign will be able to exploit them.

John McCain looked strong going into the Republican convention even with the economy on the brink of a meltdown. His war record was unassailable. He couldn't be tied to the blatant corruption and incompetence of an unpopular administration.   

 
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Jbrase
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« Reply #5015 on: June 08, 2010, 12:55:54 pm »

NC


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5016 on: June 08, 2010, 06:08:44 pm »


Colorado Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 7, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

    29% Strongly approve

    14% Somewhat approve

      7% Somewhat disapprove

    50% Strongly disapprove

      1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  19
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 147
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  55
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  69
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 54
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.



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Jbrase
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« Reply #5017 on: June 09, 2010, 12:18:54 am »

CO


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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J. J.
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« Reply #5018 on: June 09, 2010, 08:41:03 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% -3

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.


A good Obama sample dropped off.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5019 on: June 09, 2010, 08:43:23 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49% +3

Disapprove 50% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.


A good Obama sample, but that Strongly Approve number is still showing a drop.

49% approval for an incumbent before the electoral campaign begins in earnest almost always implies a victory. There will be those who won't be happy with either the incumbent or the challenger, and will hibernate in the election. George W. Bush had lower approvals throughout most of 2004 and still won despite having a high rate of "strong disapproval".

 

Or, a good Obama sample dropped off. 

He "dropped" today, but it was probably just a good sample dropping off.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5020 on: June 09, 2010, 08:46:19 am »

Florida Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted June 7, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly

approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s

been doing?

      

33% Strongly approve

       13% Somewhat approve

         8% Somewhat disapprove

       45% Strongly disapprove

         0% Not sure



Illinois Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 7, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       17% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       37% Strongly disapprove
         0% Not sure

Senate races in both states are near-ties.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

41 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  183
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  19
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 147
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  55
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  69
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 54
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

Except for Texas (one of the most volatile states for polls when it is polled, and I have no reason to believe that it will be as close as the model predicts) and perhaps South Carolina (where GOP politicians are often in ethical quicksand), my model suggests that the Presidential election of 2012 will look much like that of 2008. President Obama would win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico by far-smaller margins.

The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.




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Vosem
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« Reply #5021 on: June 09, 2010, 10:50:36 am »


 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.



Like Obama?
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Iosif
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« Reply #5022 on: June 09, 2010, 10:54:06 am »

This thread is awful.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5023 on: June 09, 2010, 11:55:35 am »


But an irresistable kind of awful you just can't stay away from.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5024 on: June 09, 2010, 12:37:09 pm »

FL (Quinnipiac)Sad

40% Approve
54% Disapprove

From June 1 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,133 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. For the Chiles matchups, there were 435 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1461
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