The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Derek]

Am I correct to believe that all of the "white" states are "swing" states?

Pink, white, and light blue suggest swing states. Because polls bounce around, we have already seen states change categories.

The model (and in this I owe Nate Silver at 538) suggests that an incumbent who has an early approval rating of 44% in a statewide race  has roughly a 50% chance of winning the election. 

Name one candidate who has been reelected with a 44% approval rating.

[Derek]

Rasmussen (July 11)

49% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (-2)

27% Strongly Approve (nc)
40% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 49/50 with Rasmussen?

He's that high almost once a week. He varies between 44 and 47 for the most part in the past 6 months. He's gotten as low as 41% once.

[Derek]

Anyone seen recent numbers in MN? I haven't seen that in 2 months. I forget where I saw a poll showing that only 46% of voters approve of him in CA.

[Derek]

We got him right where we want him.

[Derek]

TX, MD, WI & DE

Rasmussen : DE: 49 / 48
Link

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

I'd laugh if he lost Biden's home state.

[Derek]

That map is looking better everyday. Will the GOP win it back? Yes we can!

[Derek]

Kentucky Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted July 20, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President … do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

25% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
48% Strongly disapprove
   1% Not sure

(That's very close to how Kentucky voted in 2008, which says something, even before any assumptions that a campaign season would give any advantages to the incumbent)

Georgia Survey of 1,500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 13, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

31% Strongly approve
10% Somewhat approve
  7% Somewhat disapprove
51% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure

(Not far off from the 2008 election even without any assumptions of a dynamic advantage for an incumbent President).

Should President Obama get 42% of the vote in Kentucky in 2012, then things are probably much like 2008. Should President Obama get 48% of the vote in Kentucky, then the GOP will be in deep trouble in 2012.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

49 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House (not counting a poll by a near-affiliate of the GOP now including a valid poll in Nebraska. The exception is Montana among the states. DC has yet to be polled.

deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 133
white                        too close to call  6
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  60
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  54
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 107  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


Note that I have just added a level of support of 44% to fit the "too close to call category".

Are you delusional or stuck inside Obama's rear end like Obama is himself? What is wrong with you? How is being at 46% and struggling now in his home state of IL, CA, WA, and the fact he would lose DE good for Obama?

[Derek]

WA??? this is surprising, I'm just gonna pretend it is slightly higher, until another poll is released confirming this.

Arkansas - Dark Blue
30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

[Derek]

http://

This represents his approval ratings.

[Derek]

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

[Derek]

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

[Derek]

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

Well they must be the stereotypical Californians who skate board and do drugs because according to you they're remembering things that aren't real. It might just take a worthless president like Obama to lose CA and WA in 2012.

[Derek]

I feel so out of sync. When he was running as a candidate / first came into office I supported him for partisan reasons but thought he was an empty suit with a lot of rhetoric who didn't know how to get anything done. This is when most liberals were slobbering all over him.

Now that Obama's signed Lily Ledbetter, the SCHIP expansion, the stimulus package, credit card reform, health care reform (huge), student loan reform, and financial reform, and stabilized the economy, all of which I approve of more than disapprove, my opinion of him has shot up. He's been incredibly effective. But now most liberals are upset he didn't usher in some sort of liberal paradise.

It's pretty lonely being a pragmatic liberal. Most of them liked him when he was a pie in the sky dream, and dislike him now that he's actually accomplished something solid. Perhaps this is just some sort of derangement liberals suffer that causes them to be perpetually unrealistic? I have to say, I would not be a liberal except that conservatives these days are far worse. There's hope for the unrealistic. For the insane there's only treatment.

I wish I could frame this quote. He is an empty suit and will never amount to anything more. You should've voted for McCain but there is still 2012.

[Derek]

http://

Battlegrounds:

Ohio 52-48 GOP
Penn 53-47 GOP
Florida 57-43 GOP
Nevada 55-43 GOP
Colorado 57-42 GOP
Oregon 52-48 GOP
New Jersey 51-49 GOP
New Hampshire 59-40 GOP
New Mexico 52-48 GOP
Michigan 51-49 GOP
Minnesota 50-49 GOP
Wisconsin 51-48 Obama
Iowa 50-48 Obama
Maine 50-49 Obama
Washington 50-49 Obama
Delaware 50-49 GOP

Those are the most recent approvals I've seen for Obama. He would likely lose Biden's home state of Delaware with such a performance to date.

[Derek]

He's doing terrible and clinging onto anything that he thinks may help him. Support amongst blacks and hispanics is down too.