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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1014849 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #5700 on: August 16, 2010, 10:49:10 am »


Probably. A typical news item affecting the approval rating. Strictly speaking, President Obama is right on this one; the First Amendment offers no usable exemptions to free speech and free expression of religion. It protects unpopular speech and religion, and in view of the hazards for finding exceptions, our professor of Constitutional Law has done the right thing.



This one will blow off.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5701 on: August 16, 2010, 11:29:51 am »

Maine (Rasmussen): 54-46
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5702 on: August 16, 2010, 12:08:11 pm »

Gallup is 42-50 today, so the Mosque-issue isn´t good for Obama.
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Dgov
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« Reply #5703 on: August 16, 2010, 12:15:07 pm »

Gallup is 42-50 today, so the Mosque-issue isn´t good for Obama.

Judging by the Crosstabs, it's mostly young people who dropped off on Him over the last week too--he went from 59% to 46%, despite increasing about 3% in the older than 50 Demographic.

Probably an unrepresentative drop, but still not the kind of numbers he wants to be seeing less than 3 months from an election.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5704 on: August 16, 2010, 12:19:35 pm »
« Edited: August 16, 2010, 01:57:04 pm by pbrower2a »

Maine State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 12, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

   30% Strongly approve
   24% Somewhat approve
     8% Somewhat disapprove
   38% Strongly disapprove
     0% Not sure

Maine is fairly homogeneous in its voting, so trying to figure which district would give him 56% of the vote is a quibble.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  142
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  57
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 96
white                        too close to call  43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  33
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  25
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 149



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......
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Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #5705 on: August 16, 2010, 12:26:25 pm »

Maine State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 12, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

   30% Strongly approve
   24% Somewhat approve
     8% Somewhat disapprove
   38% Strongly disapprove
     0% Not sure

Maine is fairly homogeneous in its voting, so trying to figure which district would give him 56% of the vote is a quibble.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  142
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  57
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 96
white                        too close to call  43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  33
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  25
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 149



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......
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J. J.
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« Reply #5706 on: August 16, 2010, 04:31:48 pm »


Probably. A typical news item affecting the approval rating. Strictly speaking, President Obama is right on this one; the First Amendment offers no usable exemptions to free speech and free expression of religion. It protects unpopular speech and religion, and in view of the hazards for finding exceptions, our professor of Constitutional Law has done the right thing.



This one will blow off.

Other than saying it is a local issue (which it is), and defending First Amendment Rights (which he ultimately did), he intruded on the issue.

I don't have a problem with the mosque, but this was bad politics on Obama's part.
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izixs
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« Reply #5707 on: August 16, 2010, 05:02:06 pm »

Saying nothing on the mosque issue would of very quickly lead to opportunists who are using it to demagogue announcing loudly "Where does the president stand on this?", which would increase the amount of exposure he would get on the issue. So it is better to give the answer before there becomes lots of cries about it and have people go 'oh' and give the country time to move onto things that are actually important (jobs, the economy, ect). So basically as it was quickly becoming a distraction, it was best to go out there and grab hold of a position before things got even sillier.

Still, a tough move to make. And a possibly unpopular one (I'm still not sold that a majority wanted the government to intervene, but its obvious that the mosque as planned was unpopular). But I'll give him props for standing up for what he believes is right.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5708 on: August 16, 2010, 09:10:53 pm »

Saying nothing on the mosque issue would of very quickly lead to opportunists who are using it to demagogue announcing loudly "Where does the president stand on this?", which would increase the amount of exposure he would get on the issue. So it is better to give the answer before there becomes lots of cries about it and have people go 'oh' and give the country time to move onto things that are actually important (jobs, the economy, ect). So basically as it was quickly becoming a distraction, it was best to go out there and grab hold of a position before things got even sillier.

Still, a tough move to make. And a possibly unpopular one (I'm still not sold that a majority wanted the government to intervene, but its obvious that the mosque as planned was unpopular). But I'll give him props for standing up for what he believes is right.

So goes the myth that President Obama sticks a most finger in the air before making a decision. He lets the polls sink for a few days inconsequential to winning any election so that he can be right. Even if the reasoning is inconvenient it is right. The First Amendment has no exceptions for the unpopular, unpatriotic, unorthodox, and impolitic. This is the "Professor of Constitutional Law" that Sarah Palin so derides.

President Obama is right on this one.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #5709 on: August 16, 2010, 10:35:14 pm »

The 1st gives you the right to practice your religion not WHERE to practice your religion. Do you oppose zoning laws? Would you oppose putting a porn shop in a neighborhood next to an elementary school?
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J. J.
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« Reply #5710 on: August 16, 2010, 10:37:19 pm »

Saying nothing on the mosque issue would of very quickly lead to opportunists who are using it to demagogue announcing loudly "Where does the president stand on this?", which would increase the amount of exposure he would get on the issue. So it is better to give the answer before there becomes lots of cries about it and have people go 'oh' and give the country time to move onto things that are actually important (jobs, the economy, ect). So basically as it was quickly becoming a distraction, it was best to go out there and grab hold of a position before things got even sillier.

Still, a tough move to make. And a possibly unpopular one (I'm still not sold that a majority wanted the government to intervene, but its obvious that the mosque as planned was unpopular). But I'll give him props for standing up for what he believes is right.

So goes the myth that President Obama sticks a most finger in the air before making a decision. He lets the polls sink for a few days inconsequential to winning any election so that he can be right. Even if the reasoning is inconvenient it is right. The First Amendment has no exceptions for the unpopular, unpatriotic, unorthodox, and impolitic. This is the "Professor of Constitutional Law" that Sarah Palin so derides.

President Obama is right on this one.

But it is not the constitutional role of the President to determine zoning in NYC either.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5711 on: August 17, 2010, 08:02:59 am »
« Edited: August 17, 2010, 09:04:19 am by pbrower2a »

Saying nothing on the mosque issue would of very quickly lead to opportunists who are using it to demagogue announcing loudly "Where does the president stand on this?", which would increase the amount of exposure he would get on the issue. So it is better to give the answer before there becomes lots of cries about it and have people go 'oh' and give the country time to move onto things that are actually important (jobs, the economy, ect). So basically as it was quickly becoming a distraction, it was best to go out there and grab hold of a position before things got even sillier.

Still, a tough move to make. And a possibly unpopular one (I'm still not sold that a majority wanted the government to intervene, but its obvious that the mosque as planned was unpopular). But I'll give him props for standing up for what he believes is right.

So goes the myth that President Obama sticks a most finger in the air before making a decision. He lets the polls sink for a few days inconsequential to winning any election so that he can be right. Even if the reasoning is inconvenient it is right. The First Amendment has no exceptions for the unpopular, unpatriotic, unorthodox, and impolitic. This is the "Professor of Constitutional Law" that Sarah Palin so derides.

President Obama is right on this one.

But it is not the constitutional role of the President to determine zoning in NYC either.

Zoning laws cannot be used as means of denying the practice of an "inconvenient" religion. They can be used for chasing out such nuisance businesses as venues of "adult" entertainment. Zoning laws cannot be used to favor one religious entity over another -- let us say a church over a synagogue.    

Just as the First Amendment defends "unpopular", "unpatriotic", "unorthodox", "tasteless", and "unsettling" speech it also protects "unpopular", "unpatriotic", "unorthodox", "tasteless", and "unsettling" religion.   
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J. J.
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« Reply #5712 on: August 17, 2010, 09:04:46 am »

Saying nothing on the mosque issue would of very quickly lead to opportunists who are using it to demagogue announcing loudly "Where does the president stand on this?", which would increase the amount of exposure he would get on the issue. So it is better to give the answer before there becomes lots of cries about it and have people go 'oh' and give the country time to move onto things that are actually important (jobs, the economy, ect). So basically as it was quickly becoming a distraction, it was best to go out there and grab hold of a position before things got even sillier.

Still, a tough move to make. And a possibly unpopular one (I'm still not sold that a majority wanted the government to intervene, but its obvious that the mosque as planned was unpopular). But I'll give him props for standing up for what he believes is right.

So goes the myth that President Obama sticks a most finger in the air before making a decision. He lets the polls sink for a few days inconsequential to winning any election so that he can be right. Even if the reasoning is inconvenient it is right. The First Amendment has no exceptions for the unpopular, unpatriotic, unorthodox, and impolitic. This is the "Professor of Constitutional Law" that Sarah Palin so derides.

President Obama is right on this one.

But it is not the constitutional role of the President to determine zoning in NYC either.

Zoning laws cannot be used as means of denying the practice of an "inconvenient" religion.  They can be used for chasing out such nuisance businesses as venues of "adult" entertainment. Zoning laws cannot be used to favor one religious entity over another -- let us say a church over a synagogue.     

Nobody is suggesting they would or should, including Obama who mentioned that in his comment on this.  I am saying that what buildings NYC chooses to permit, and in this case did permit, is not an issue for the President.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5713 on: August 17, 2010, 09:07:12 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, +1.

Disapprove 55%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, u.

Still in range.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #5714 on: August 17, 2010, 10:34:19 am »

PA- PPP(D)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_817.pdf

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 40%
Disapprove...................................................... 55%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5715 on: August 17, 2010, 11:28:51 am »
« Edited: August 17, 2010, 02:52:49 pm by pbrower2a »

Pennsylvania Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted August 16, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       26% Strongly approve
       17% Somewhat approve
       11% Somewhat disapprove
       45% Strongly disapprove

         1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  142
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  57
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 76
white                        too close to call  43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  25
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 149



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

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« Reply #5716 on: August 17, 2010, 11:54:56 am »

PA


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #5717 on: August 17, 2010, 12:16:21 pm »

Gallup:

Approve - 42% (NC)
Disapprove - 51% (+1)
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Devilman88
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« Reply #5718 on: August 17, 2010, 12:17:30 pm »

Wow, these numbers aren't looking too good for Mr. Obama.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #5719 on: August 17, 2010, 12:21:25 pm »

IL- PPP (D)

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve................. 49%
Disapprove............ 46%
Not sure ................ 5%
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Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #5720 on: August 17, 2010, 12:23:28 pm »

IL- PPP (D)

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve................. 49%
Disapprove............ 46%
Not sure ................ 5%

At first, I thought that was a national poll.

Below 50% in his home state...not good.
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« Reply #5721 on: August 17, 2010, 12:25:44 pm »

The truth of the comic in my signature has become more and more obvious. Obama may have a JD from Harvard, but his Presidency has shown that he's a moron.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5722 on: August 17, 2010, 12:45:03 pm »

The truth of the comic in my signature has become more and more obvious. Obama may have a JD from Harvard, but his Presidency has shown that he's a moron.

Yeh, all those liberals in Pennsylvania's T and southern Virginia now hate him. Roll Eyes

The problem is, simply, he had not delivered.
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« Reply #5723 on: August 17, 2010, 01:21:20 pm »

I think that Americans are getting disgusted with politics of all kinds -- conservative, liberal, and Hard Right. Maybe politics can't deliver prosperity, but as the previous Administration proves, they can surely bring ruin.

If this isn't simply the news cycle, then we are in for some real ugliness in political life -- ugliness unprecedented in severity since the Civil War and in style in this country.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5724 on: August 17, 2010, 01:26:15 pm »

I think that Americans are getting disgusted with politics of all kinds -- conservative, liberal, and Hard Right. Maybe politics can't deliver prosperity, but as the previous Administration proves, they can surely bring ruin.

If this isn't simply the news cycle, then we are in for some real ugliness in political life -- ugliness unprecedented in severity since the Civil War and in style in this country.

One of the major problem is that the majority is shifting and Obama is left (out to the left).

It is possibly a sign of a realignment (to the right).
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