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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016021 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #5800 on: August 19, 2010, 01:57:06 pm »


It was Carter's pollster saying so.  Roll Eyes
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #5801 on: August 19, 2010, 02:00:25 pm »

Caddell is renowned for being the Democrats' Debbie Downer.  You know that, J. J.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5802 on: August 19, 2010, 02:05:42 pm »

Caddell is renowned for being the Democrats' Debbie Downer.  You know that, J. J.

Yes, and he's generally right when he does it.

He also noted that Obama could change course.
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Sbane
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« Reply #5803 on: August 19, 2010, 03:01:53 pm »

Big news -- the last US combat troops are leaving Iraq.

Hallelujah!

Until the questions, "Who lost Iraq," is asked or an Iranian problem comes up.

Who lost Iraq? George W. Bush and the neocon clique.

Iranian problem? Maybe Allah can take Mahmoud Ahmedinedjad and send him to the Great Satan.

The dirty little secret was that with a brutal tyrant as its leader, Iraq was able to hold its own against Iran... without American combat troops. I see no evidence that any country except perhaps North Korea would stand in solidarity with Iran as an aggressor against Iraq. 
This is one of the great problems of the mid-east, it is easily destabilized.  One thing a US presence does is provide stability.

LOL wut?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5804 on: August 19, 2010, 03:03:19 pm »


I'm not overjoyed with Q outside of the Northeast (and generally NY, NJ and New England).

I still would think NJ is an outlier.

It's kinda hard picking the outlier of those two. It's doubtful that Obama's even in Florida and it's doubtful that he's even and not above ground in NJ. I'm more inclined to think that the FL is the outlier.

New Jersey -- possibly the proposed Islamic Cultural Center near Ground Zero. Florida -- end of the Gusher in the Gulf.  My guess, and nothing more.

FL was never hugely effected by the oil spill, especially the east coast.

NJ, if it is the mosque, he's lost the election.  I think NJ is just a bad sample.

Florida is very touchy about oil spills. New Jersey? In line with Pennsylvania.

Just wait a month or so. The states get polled frequently.
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Zarn
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« Reply #5805 on: August 19, 2010, 03:47:32 pm »

New Jersey has dipped on Obama before. Remember right before our 2009 election? It was rather negative.

Besides, PA has been dipping and NJ would likely trend in the same direction as PA.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5806 on: August 19, 2010, 03:59:55 pm »



Florida is very touchy about oil spills. New Jersey? In line with Pennsylvania.

Just wait a month or so. The states get polled frequently.

FL was never that touchy about it.  NJ is never in line with PA.

I think both polls might be bad.
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Zarn
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« Reply #5807 on: August 19, 2010, 04:09:00 pm »



Florida is very touchy about oil spills. New Jersey? In line with Pennsylvania.

Just wait a month or so. The states get polled frequently.

FL was never that touchy about it.  NJ is never in line with PA.

I think both polls might be bad.

Lol NJ is not the same, but the movement is similar, at least recently.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5808 on: August 19, 2010, 06:23:20 pm »

Any chance both of them are outliers?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5809 on: August 19, 2010, 08:09:35 pm »
« Edited: August 20, 2010, 10:14:42 am by pbrower2a »

Washington State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 18, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       33% Strongly approve
       20% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       40% Strongly disapprove
         0% Not sure

Quinnipiac has ties in Florida and New Jersey at 47.

Rhode Island State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 17, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

 

35% Strongly approve
21% Somewhat approve
11% Somewhat disapprove
31% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

Of course, if he were "President of Arkansas" he would have to watch his back... and the senior military officers:

Arkansas Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 18, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

21% Strongly approve
10% Somewhat approve
13% Somewhat disapprove
56% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure

Things are marginally better for him in Wyoming, but still awful:

Wyoming Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 18, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

19% Strongly approve
13% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
58% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  126
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  59
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 122
white                        too close to call  26
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  25
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 160



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......
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J. J.
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« Reply #5810 on: August 20, 2010, 09:12:32 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

Still in range.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5811 on: August 20, 2010, 12:09:30 pm »

Alabama Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 19, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

30% Strongly approve
  7% Somewhat approve
  6% Somewhat disapprove
55% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  126
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  59
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 122
white                        too close to call  26
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  25
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 160



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages. An incompetent incumbent needs more advantages than the model suggests.

......
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5812 on: August 21, 2010, 12:27:01 am »

SurveyUSA (August 16 - 600 state adults):

California: 50-46
Kansas: 38-56
Oregon: 44-52
Washington: 46-52
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Dgov
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« Reply #5813 on: August 21, 2010, 12:52:38 am »

SurveyUSA (August 16 - 600 state adults):

California: 50-46
Kansas: 38-56
Oregon: 44-52
Washington: 46-52

Some improper weighting.  Whites comprise over 50% of that sample in California, and are only about 40% of the population Statewide.  With those demographics breakdowns, weighted for Statewide numbers correctly, the numbers are 54-42.  Also, I think they have a bad sample of California Blacks, as 61-38 is way too low for them.

The Kansas one is actually 30-66 from what I can see here on the cross tabs, which is also probably below what he should be at.  Composition numbers are again kind of weird (33% of Kansas Adults are under the age of 35?), and they almost certainly got a bad sample of Hispanics, who in this poll approve of Obama 17-71.  A 54-point disapproval gap?

The Oregon poll looks alot better, although still far lower than i would expect for that state.  Hispanics approve of Obama by only a single point, 39-38 though, which raises some questions.

And the Washington Poll is the same as the Oregon one, with Hispanics disapproving of Obama by a rather large 18 points, 41-59.  He's also losing Metro Seattle, 45-53.

So, either Obama has lost Hispanics for the Democratic party (might just be Left-leaning ones disapproving on Immigration though) or these are a series of bad polls.
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« Reply #5814 on: August 21, 2010, 01:31:53 am »

Ca, WA, OR, & Ks


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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J. J.
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« Reply #5815 on: August 21, 2010, 08:46:30 am »
« Edited: August 21, 2010, 04:32:54 pm by J. J. »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 53%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

Still in range.  The numbers are exceptionally stable.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5816 on: August 21, 2010, 09:25:47 am »

SurveyUSA (August 16 - 600 state adults):

California: 50-46
Kansas: 38-56
Oregon: 44-52
Washington: 46-52

Some improper weighting.  Whites comprise over 50% of that sample in California, and are only about 40% of the population Statewide.  With those demographics breakdowns, weighted for Statewide numbers correctly, the numbers are 54-42.  Also, I think they have a bad sample of California Blacks, as 61-38 is way too low for them.

The Kansas one is actually 30-66 from what I can see here on the cross tabs, which is also probably below what he should be at.  Composition numbers are again kind of weird (33% of Kansas Adults are under the age of 35?), and they almost certainly got a bad sample of Hispanics, who in this poll approve of Obama 17-71.  A 54-point disapproval gap?

The Oregon poll looks alot better, although still far lower than i would expect for that state.  Hispanics approve of Obama by only a single point, 39-38 though, which raises some questions.

And the Washington Poll is the same as the Oregon one, with Hispanics disapproving of Obama by a rather large 18 points, 41-59.  He's also losing Metro Seattle, 45-53.

So, either Obama has lost Hispanics for the Democratic party (might just be Left-leaning ones disapproving on Immigration though) or these are a series of bad polls.

As usual the SurveyUSA polls are far out of line,  and their inclusion ordinarily entails more problems than they are worth.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5817 on: August 21, 2010, 11:22:12 am »

SurveyUSA (August 16 - 600 state adults):

California: 50-46
Kansas: 38-56
Oregon: 44-52
Washington: 46-52

Some improper weighting.  Whites comprise over 50% of that sample in California, and are only about 40% of the population Statewide.  With those demographics breakdowns, weighted for Statewide numbers correctly, the numbers are 54-42.  Also, I think they have a bad sample of California Blacks, as 61-38 is way too low for them.

The Kansas one is actually 30-66 from what I can see here on the cross tabs, which is also probably below what he should be at.  Composition numbers are again kind of weird (33% of Kansas Adults are under the age of 35?), and they almost certainly got a bad sample of Hispanics, who in this poll approve of Obama 17-71.  A 54-point disapproval gap?

The Oregon poll looks alot better, although still far lower than i would expect for that state.  Hispanics approve of Obama by only a single point, 39-38 though, which raises some questions.

And the Washington Poll is the same as the Oregon one, with Hispanics disapproving of Obama by a rather large 18 points, 41-59.  He's also losing Metro Seattle, 45-53.

So, either Obama has lost Hispanics for the Democratic party (might just be Left-leaning ones disapproving on Immigration though) or these are a series of bad polls.

You have been looking at the July crosstabs, when Obama was at 30-66 in Kansas.

The August crosstabs have not been released yet on their site.
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Dgov
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« Reply #5818 on: August 21, 2010, 04:49:07 pm »


You have been looking at the July crosstabs, when Obama was at 30-66 in Kansas.

The August crosstabs have not been released yet on their site.

Ah, My Mistake.

In Other news, Obama's up to 43-50 in Gallup, suggesting their recent trend was a bit of an aberration.  It's still highly likely to be his worst week so far though, with an average of about 42% Approval Likely.
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« Reply #5819 on: August 22, 2010, 03:49:15 am »


You have been looking at the July crosstabs, when Obama was at 30-66 in Kansas.

The August crosstabs have not been released yet on their site.

Ah, My Mistake.

In Other news, Obama's up to 43-50 in Gallup, suggesting their recent trend was a bit of an aberration.  It's still highly likely to be his worst week so far though, with an average of about 42% Approval Likely.

It was the mosque effect.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5820 on: August 22, 2010, 06:40:31 am »

Rasmussen (22-08-2010)Sad

48% Approve (+3)
51% Disapprove (-2)

25% Strongly Approve (nc)
42% Strongly Disapprove (-2)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5821 on: August 22, 2010, 09:08:23 am »


You have been looking at the July crosstabs, when Obama was at 30-66 in Kansas.

The August crosstabs have not been released yet on their site.

Ah, My Mistake.

In Other news, Obama's up to 43-50 in Gallup, suggesting their recent trend was a bit of an aberration.  It's still highly likely to be his worst week so far though, with an average of about 42% Approval Likely.

It was the mosque effect.

We may be finding that cultural affronts have the potential for swift and severe harm to approval ratings for a few days only for the approval ratings to rebound soon afterward.

Polls after the graceful pull-out of American combat divisions from Iraq might be...interesting. Maybe Georgia (with a large military presence) was more a portent than a freak.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #5822 on: August 22, 2010, 09:13:36 am »

Rasmussen (22-08-2010)Sad

48% Approve (+3)
51% Disapprove (-2)

25% Strongly Approve (nc)
42% Strongly Disapprove (-2)

The Bam Bounce!
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J. J.
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« Reply #5823 on: August 22, 2010, 09:36:41 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +3.

Disapprove 51%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -2.

For formatting.

Probably a good Obama sample moving into the system.  Still barely within range.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5824 on: August 22, 2010, 11:01:47 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +3.

Disapprove 51%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -2.

For formatting.

Probably a good Obama sample moving into the system.  Still barely within range.

Within the range for recent highs. We have been seeing overall approval ratings between 43% for lows and 49% for highs over the last couple of months.  I haven't seen any approval over 50% for about a year now, which really would be outside the range.



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