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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015320 times)
Yelnoc
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« Reply #5850 on: August 25, 2010, 07:06:51 pm »

A prediction at this point it's kind of hard to do.... but I'm going to guess it ends up kind of like this.  



Obama 323 - 52%
Challenger 215 - 47%

Basically, the conservatives that went with him in 2008 are pushed away by now, costing him NC and IN.  He loses the big margins in the West and 9 EVs in the historically very anti-incumbant Colorado.  Other than that the economy SEEMS to be heading in the right direction and Obama is able to highlight the things he has been able to accomplish.  Not the victory he enjoyed in 2008, but since generally the country seems to be making progress we stick with him.  

(Not only that, but I'm predicting the GOP winds up with a candidate and campaign that's WAAAAAAAY too much to the right of the country as a whole)
That is certainly possible, but unless the GOP proves that they are completely inept at picking competent candidates then they should be able to take back Virginia and Florida at least.  And the fact that this election will most likely hinge on the economy makes it very hard to predict; after all, how many people predicted the '08 crash?
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izixs
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« Reply #5851 on: August 25, 2010, 07:25:47 pm »

after all, how many people predicted the '08 crash?

Weirdly enough, I did. Going forward, I predict that things will muddle through until at least next year and then start a good recovery once again.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5852 on: August 25, 2010, 07:34:14 pm »


That is certainly possible, but unless the GOP proves that they are completely inept at picking competent candidates then they should be able to take back Virginia and Florida at least.  And the fact that this election will most likely hinge on the economy makes it very hard to predict; after all, how many people predicted the '08 crash?

All that surprised me was that it took until 2008. The warning signs -- overinvestment in real estate at the expense of everything else, workers; incomes lagging GDP growth, and of course  the severe over-rating of "collateral debt obligations" that were in fact housing loans that could never be paid off except through inflation that the US government was not going to let happen.

An economy built on a foundation of fraud is doomed to failure.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #5853 on: August 25, 2010, 07:42:35 pm »

So, you guys are Genies.

I don't remember any people in the news talking about our shaky economy in 2006.  But then I could be wrong.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5854 on: August 25, 2010, 08:02:00 pm »

after all, how many people predicted the '08 crash?

Weirdly enough, I did. Going forward, I predict that things will muddle through until at least next year and then start a good recovery once again.

So did Hillery.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5855 on: August 26, 2010, 08:41:52 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, -1.

In range.  The Strongly Disapprove number pulled back a bit.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5856 on: August 26, 2010, 11:32:25 am »
« Edited: August 26, 2010, 04:44:25 pm by pbrower2a »

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted August 25, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly

approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s

been doing?

      

       27% Strongly approve
       19% Somewhat approve
         9% Somewhat disapprove
       46% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

New Mexico State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 24, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President…do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

    34% Strongly approve
    23% Somewhat approve
      6% Somewhat disapprove
    37% Strongly disapprove
      0% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  151
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 134
white                        too close to call  26
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 29
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 156



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......


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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5857 on: August 26, 2010, 02:46:15 pm »

Why aren't you averaging the two recent polls in Florida? That's what you did with North Carolina  a while back when the poll had Obama with low approvals. You averaged it with a recent one where he had high approvals so he'd look better.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5858 on: August 26, 2010, 04:26:49 pm »

Why aren't you averaging the two recent polls in Florida? That's what you did with North Carolina  a while back when the poll had Obama with low approvals. You averaged it with a recent one where he had high approvals so he'd look better.

The graceful departure of the last US combat units from Iraq. Take a look at the most recent Rasmussen poll from  Georgia -- a state with a large military presence.

PPP has become the recent house pollster for Daily Kos, and although Daily Kos is unabashedly on the Left, it had a recent problem with a pollster that leaned too far to the Left and gave a distorted vision of where America stands.
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Dgov
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« Reply #5859 on: August 26, 2010, 04:27:33 pm »

57-43 for Obama in New Mexico via Rasmussen, which seems way too high for the state.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_mexico/election_2010_new_mexico_governor
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5860 on: August 26, 2010, 04:29:48 pm »

That's really weird.
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Dgov
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« Reply #5861 on: August 26, 2010, 04:40:56 pm »


Well, New Mexico is probably the only state in the US where opposing the Arizona immigration law would be politically beneficial for Obama, given that the state is about 45-45-10 White-Hispanic-Native, and the overwhelmingly proportion of those Hispanics are native born (90% or so), and that the state has had little to no problems with illegal immigration.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5862 on: August 26, 2010, 04:51:50 pm »
« Edited: August 26, 2010, 11:11:22 pm by pbrower2a »


That's about how New Mexico voted in 2008.  Only one other state seems to have polled about as it voted in 2008 -- Georgia, and many see that as an outlier.



 
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #5863 on: August 26, 2010, 10:34:38 pm »

Yeah, because most states are polling about how they voted.  How did I know you'd turn this into a solid poll? Roll Eyes

Now, just level with me here; Is it exhausting to have to try SO hard to twist everything into a Democratic positive?  Can you really not just look at things the way they are?  OR are you actually delusional enough to believe that trash?  I mean come on, just give it up already!
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Dgov
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« Reply #5864 on: August 26, 2010, 10:39:43 pm »

Yeah, because most states are polling about how they voted.  How did I know you'd turn this into a solid poll? Roll Eyes

Now, just level with me here; Is it exhausting to have to try SO hard to twist everything into a Democratic positive?  Can you really not just look at things the way they are?  OR are you actually delusional enough to believe that trash?  I mean come on, just give it up already!

Well, I'll spin it Rep to balance it out.  If this is an oversample of Obama supporters, than Martinez is leading by way more than 5 points (7 with leaners) in the governor's race.  I'd estimate about 5-6% bigger lead, to the point where this might be a lost cause for Democrats.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5865 on: August 26, 2010, 11:28:10 pm »

Yeah, because most states are polling about how they voted.  How did I know you'd turn this into a solid poll? Roll Eyes

Now, just level with me here; Is it exhausting to have to try SO hard to twist everything into a Democratic positive?  Can you really not just look at things the way they are?  OR are you actually delusional enough to believe that trash?  I mean come on, just give it up already!

Only two states that any thought conceivable swing states in 2008, Georgia and New Mexico, seem to be polling as they voted. Someone suggested that new Mexico might poll unusually well for President Obama because of its large Mexican-American-American population  despising the "Papers, please!" legislation in Arizona. The other is Georgia, and there as a possible windfall for President Obama because of the heavy military presence. Career soldiers are the first to know, then loved ones, and then people near military bases.

My usual spin is that one can usually figure that an incumbent Governor or Senator will gain about six percent more vote share than the level of approval before the campaign season begins in earnest if an average campaigner for his office (Eisenhower was the exception to that pattern; he campaigned little, and his vote share was close to his approval rating).  By applying that to an incumbent President one might be more cautious in assuming that the incumbent President  will actively campaign in places where his efforts can make a difference and avoid the sure things (he won't do much campaigning in Michigan unless Senator Stabenow needs some help in 2012 and he won't make many appearances in Utah  unless there is some natural disaster).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5866 on: August 26, 2010, 11:59:19 pm »

MO (MSU): 47-49

http://www.ky3.com/news/local/Poll-shows-dead-heat-in-US-Senate-Race.html
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5867 on: August 27, 2010, 12:18:59 am »

Unusually higher numbers now.  Maybe he's actually on an upward trend for some reason.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5868 on: August 27, 2010, 12:22:12 am »






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  151
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 145
white                        too close to call  26
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 27
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 156



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......



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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #5869 on: August 27, 2010, 12:23:45 am »

I doubt he'll lose PA, and win OH and MO...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5870 on: August 27, 2010, 12:32:50 am »
« Edited: August 27, 2010, 09:05:02 am by pbrower2a »

Unusually higher numbers now.  Maybe he's actually on an upward trend for some reason.

No more bad news from Iraq?

I doubt he'll lose PA, and win OH and MO...

I concur. There should be some interesting polls over the next few days.

I don't know what state will be polled next, but Ohio and Pennsylvania get polled often.
 
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J. J.
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« Reply #5871 on: August 27, 2010, 08:49:17 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +2.

Disapprove 54%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

In range. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5872 on: August 27, 2010, 09:08:04 am »

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted August 25, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

   

28% Strongly approve

    18% Somewhat approve

      7% Somewhat disapprove

    46% Strongly disapprove

      1% Not sure

It changes nothing, so no new map.
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Saff
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« Reply #5873 on: August 27, 2010, 09:50:08 am »

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted August 25, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

28% Strongly approve

    18% Somewhat approve

      7% Somewhat disapprove

    46% Strongly disapprove

      1% Not sure

It changes nothing, so no new map.


So, I'm going to take a wild guess and say that would translate to 46-53?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5874 on: August 27, 2010, 11:15:06 am »

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted August 25, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

28% Strongly approve
    18% Somewhat approve
      7% Somewhat disapprove
    46% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure

It changes nothing, so no new map.


So, I'm going to take a wild guess and say that would translate to 46-53?

Not bad for a start at the beginning of a campaign season. With a strong campaign apparatus (as in 2008) and a few campaign appearances President Obama would almost certainly win the state.  Not since 1924 (when the state had only six electoral votes) have the Republicans won the Presidency without Florida, Bill Clinton won without it in 1992 and Republicans absolutely needed it in 2000 and 2004.

With the current poll I can say that Obama loses Florida in 2008 if anything new discredits him as President, if he does no campaigning there, if he has no effective campaign apparatus there, or if he campaigns ineptly. Any Republican challenger must win Florida to have a reasonable chance at the Presidency.
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