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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016378 times)
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change08
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« Reply #5875 on: August 27, 2010, 11:32:18 am »

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted August 25, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

28% Strongly approve
    18% Somewhat approve
      7% Somewhat disapprove
    46% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure

It changes nothing, so no new map.


So, I'm going to take a wild guess and say that would translate to 46-53?

Not bad for a start at the beginning of a campaign season. With a strong campaign apparatus (as in 2008) and a few campaign appearances President Obama would almost certainly win the state.  Not since 1924 (when the state had only six electoral votes) have the Republicans won the Presidency without Florida, Bill Clinton won without it in 1992 and Republicans absolutely needed it in 2000 and 2004.

With the current poll I can say that Obama loses Florida in 2008 if anything new discredits him as President, if he does no campaigning there, if he has no effective campaign apparatus there, or if he campaigns ineptly. Any Republican challenger must win Florida to have a reasonable chance at the Presidency.

It's pretty stupid to try and extropolate approval ratings into an election situation. It's about as useful as those "Obama Vs. Generic Republican" match-ups.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5876 on: August 27, 2010, 01:18:54 pm »
« Edited: August 27, 2010, 02:21:23 pm by pbrower2a »

Arizona State Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted August 25, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

      23% Strongly approve
      16% Somewhat approve
      6% Somewhat disapprove
      53% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure

South Carolina State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 25, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President…do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

       31% Strongly approve
         8% Somewhat approve
         6% Somewhat disapprove
       54% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

He's more unpopular than philandering Governor Mark "Don't cry for me, Argentina!" Sanford? Wow! How quickly people can forget!

South Carolina State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 25, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President…do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       31% Strongly approve
         8% Somewhat approve
         6% Somewhat disapprove
       54% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

Oklahoma hasn't even been close for a  Democratic nominee for President  since the ideologically-confused election of 1976



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  151
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 145
white                        too close to call  26
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 18
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 165



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......




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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5877 on: August 27, 2010, 01:33:37 pm »

He's more unpopular than philandering Governor Mark "Don't cry for me, Argentina!" Sanford? Wow! How quickly people can forget!

Or maybe people just think that failing in governing is worse than failing in your personal life.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5878 on: August 27, 2010, 01:52:06 pm »

LA (PPP): 35-61

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_LA_827.pdf
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #5879 on: August 27, 2010, 02:00:28 pm »
« Edited: August 27, 2010, 02:02:08 pm by Diane Abbott for Labour Leader! »

Louisiana State Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Approve - 35%
Disapprove - 61%

By PPP




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:



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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5880 on: August 27, 2010, 02:06:33 pm »

That map is simply ... demonstrable.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5881 on: August 27, 2010, 02:11:24 pm »

OK (Rasmussen): 34-65
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #5882 on: August 27, 2010, 03:35:45 pm »

Somehow I don't see the Republicans winning Pennsylvania and losing Georgia.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5883 on: August 27, 2010, 04:19:05 pm »

Somehow I don't see the Republicans winning Pennsylvania and losing Georgia.

Neither do I -- but Rasmussen polls Pennsylvania often.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5884 on: August 27, 2010, 06:54:17 pm »

He's more unpopular than philandering Governor Mark "Don't cry for me, Argentina!" Sanford? Wow! How quickly people can forget!

Or maybe people just think that failing in governing is worse than failing in your personal life.

But Sanford failed on both of those fronts.
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Cleveland Rocks
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« Reply #5885 on: August 27, 2010, 10:40:10 pm »

Louisiana State Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Approve - 35%
Disapprove - 61%

By PPP




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:





Can you give us a color code for the 2012 prediction map?
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #5886 on: August 27, 2010, 11:02:08 pm »

Somebody needs to take away the Crayola's.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5887 on: August 28, 2010, 08:47:23 am »
« Edited: August 29, 2010, 09:57:40 am by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -3.

In range, but very close to the upper edge of good range for Obama.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #5888 on: August 28, 2010, 11:28:12 am »

His numbers always gets better on the weekend
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J. J.
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« Reply #5889 on: August 28, 2010, 12:39:02 pm »

His numbers always gets better on the weekend

Actually there does not seem to be a huge correlation between the two. 

On top of this, these numbers are from Wednesday through Friday.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5890 on: August 29, 2010, 09:56:55 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, u.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

Disapprove and Strongly Disapprove are at the very low edge of range.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5891 on: August 29, 2010, 11:06:19 am »

Louisiana (PPP):



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  151
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 145
white                        too close to call  26
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 18
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 165



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......




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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5892 on: August 29, 2010, 11:17:21 am »

AK (PPP): 44-53

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AK_829.pdf
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« Reply #5893 on: August 29, 2010, 11:30:14 am »
« Edited: August 29, 2010, 11:45:51 am by pbrower2a »

Only three electoral votes, but remarkable nonetheless:



Alaska Survey Results (PPP)

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 55%
Barack Obama................................................ 39%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 6%

...an interesting shift!

Democrats have little to gain from the (apparent) primary defeat of Lisa Murkowski:

Q6 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Joe Miller and Democrat Scott
McAdams, who would you vote for?

Joe Miller ........................................................ 47%
Scott McAdams............................................... 39%
Undecided....................................................... 14%

unless Scott McAdams is able to pick up a huge number of voters who would have voted for incumbent Senator Murkowski.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  151
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 145
white                        too close to call  29
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 15
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 165



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......





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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5894 on: August 29, 2010, 11:31:30 am »

Possible pro-Obama sample or actual movement in the national polls?
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Rowan
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« Reply #5895 on: August 29, 2010, 11:36:03 am »

Alaska polling is notoriously....bad.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5896 on: August 29, 2010, 11:48:49 am »

Possible pro-Obama sample or actual movement in the national polls?

...no more bad news from Iraq?

Perceptions shape support and disdain for the President.
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« Reply #5897 on: August 29, 2010, 12:57:45 pm »

Without the added points for incumbent advantage, this would be the map in 2012 by his approval ratings alone.

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change08
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« Reply #5898 on: August 29, 2010, 01:12:33 pm »


Not to mention that the 55-39 2008 sample is more favorable than the actual 59-37 2008 result...
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« Reply #5899 on: August 29, 2010, 02:09:51 pm »


Alaska is a very tricky state in which to poll because the state has lots of people in isolated communities with no reliable land phones.  For predicting a Presidential election -- in all but one election (2000) during statehood has the election been undecided as the election closes in Alaska.
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