Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 12, 2019, 05:20:56 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (Primary) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 232 233 234 235 236 [237] 238 239 240 241 242 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1014829 times)
Poundingtherock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 917
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5900 on: August 29, 2010, 02:13:39 pm »

Gallup: 43/49
Logged
Citizen (The) Doctor
ArchangelZero
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,181
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5901 on: August 29, 2010, 02:21:27 pm »

Possible pro-Obama sample or actual movement in the national polls?

...no more bad news from Iraq?

Perceptions shape support and disdain for the President.

Imo, Iraq hasn't been a big deal with people except the peace activists and those who are genuinely concerned with how much money we've spent there.  Although if the Administration is being able to hype the fact that it's been done, more power to them.  However, I doubt that alone is enough for actual movement.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5902 on: August 29, 2010, 02:43:42 pm »

ting.

I'm not a fan of Gallup's tracking poll, but the numbers are within three points of the 'bots.
Logged
Poundingtherock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 917
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5903 on: August 29, 2010, 05:25:29 pm »

Huh?  Gallup is pretty solid but it wouldn't be overly harsh of Obama.

If anything, Gallup is overly favorable for Obama.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5904 on: August 29, 2010, 05:34:51 pm »

Huh?  Gallup is pretty solid but it wouldn't be overly harsh of Obama.

If anything, Gallup is overly favorable for Obama.

I am not too thrilled about Gallup's tracking poll accuracy.  Whether or not overly favorable, that doesn't change my opinion of the accuracy.  I just don't trust Gallup's tracking poll as much as I do Rasmussen, in terms of longer term treads.

I use Gallup to compare different presidents over the years.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5905 on: August 29, 2010, 05:47:54 pm »

One thing to look at is Obama's negative numbers here:  http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm

It is running well ahead of either Carter's or Reagan's at the same point in time.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,655


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5906 on: August 29, 2010, 05:48:54 pm »

Update for end of August 2010 (unless something changes greatly in the last couple of days):

All State Polls:  46% Approve (nc), 51% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 47% Approve (nc), 53% Disapprove (+1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  44% Approve (-2), 50% Disapprove (+1)
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5907 on: August 30, 2010, 09:30:22 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

Strongly Disapprove out of range.  Either a good Obama sample or some strengthening of Obama.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,412
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5908 on: August 30, 2010, 11:43:36 am »
« Edited: August 30, 2010, 12:19:51 pm by pbrower2a »

Colorado Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 29, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    29% Strongly approve
    17% Somewhat approve
       6% Somewhat disapprove
    47% Strongly disapprove
       1% Not sure

No change, but a critical state nonetheless.

West Virginia Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 29, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

17% Strongly approve
12% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
58% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  151
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 145
white                        too close to call  29
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 15
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 165



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......





Logged
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,741


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5909 on: August 30, 2010, 12:24:03 pm »

wow, West Virginia is B-A-D
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,412
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5910 on: August 30, 2010, 01:13:20 pm »


back in 2008, coal interests (meaning coal tycoon Don Blankenship) put out the meme that as someone showing more empathy to ecological interests than to environment-wreckers for profit and sympathetic to unions, Barack Obama was an "enemy of coal".
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,948
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5911 on: August 30, 2010, 01:21:47 pm »

What's funnier is the WV approval numbers even though the Dem is the favorite for the senate seat.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5912 on: August 30, 2010, 02:27:24 pm »

What's funnier is the WV approval numbers even though the Dem is the favorite for the senate seat.

Not by much, according to Scott.
Logged
Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5913 on: August 30, 2010, 05:08:58 pm »

What's funnier is the WV approval numbers even though the Dem is the favorite for the senate seat.

West Virginia, like much of the border south, will readily vote for the "right kind" of Democrat, but strongly oppose all others. So it's not that surprising to me.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,626
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5914 on: August 31, 2010, 05:03:14 am »

Minnesota (Humphrey Institute): 42-52

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2010/08/31-mn-governors-race-poll/images/MPRHHH-poll-August-2010-governor.pdf
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,626
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5915 on: August 31, 2010, 09:29:30 am »

NY (Quinnipiac): 51-41

OH (Rasmussen): 45-54

CO (Rasmussen): 42-57

...

Interesting:

Rasmussen has 2 different results for Colorado: The Senate release has it 46-53, the Governor release 42-57 and both were conducted on the same day.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5916 on: August 31, 2010, 09:56:45 am »
« Edited: September 01, 2010, 10:23:39 am by J. J. »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

Edir:  Strongly Disapprove is corrected.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,412
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5917 on: August 31, 2010, 10:02:29 am »
« Edited: August 31, 2010, 10:08:03 am by pbrower2a »

Colorado Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 29, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    22% Strongly approve
    20% Somewhat approve
     10% Somewhat disapprove
    47% Strongly disapprove
       0% Not sure

Slipping.

...No real change in Ohio, either, but adequate as a start when such is necessary. The President will need an organization  in Ohio and make some effective campaign appearance to win the state.

Ohio Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 30, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

       27% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         8% Somewhat disapprove
       46% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  151
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 136
white                        too close to call  29
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 15
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 165



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......






Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,005
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5918 on: August 31, 2010, 11:07:05 am »
« Edited: August 31, 2010, 11:12:58 am by Emperor JBrase »

NM, MO, MN, LA, AK, IL, NY, OK, OH, & CO




30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,626
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5919 on: August 31, 2010, 11:08:09 am »

PA (Rasmussen): 42-58

NC (PPP): 43-54
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,626
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5920 on: August 31, 2010, 11:09:16 am »

NM, MO, MN, LA, AK, IL, NY, OK, OH, & CO




30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green


You have to change NM, Rasmussen had 57% for Obama.
Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,005
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5921 on: August 31, 2010, 11:13:25 am »
« Edited: August 31, 2010, 11:35:01 am by Emperor JBrase »

fixed

NM, MO, MN, LA, AK, IL, NY, OK, OH, & CO




30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
Edu
Ufokart
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,277
Argentina


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5922 on: August 31, 2010, 11:49:30 am »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

If this happens, any idea why?
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5923 on: August 31, 2010, 11:56:12 am »

2012 Prediction based upon JBrase's map:



Core Obama States: 10% Margin of Victory
Safe Obama States: 5% Margin of Victory
Leaning Obama States: 1-3% Margin of Victory
Leaning Republican States: 1-3% Margin of Victory
Safe Republican States: 5% Margin of Victory
Core Republican States: 10% Margin of Victory

It should be noted that this assumes that a moderate republican will get nominated, like Romney or Karger.



Obama: 322
Republican: 216

So if things stay similar to the current situation, I'd say we're looking at 1996.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,626
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5924 on: August 31, 2010, 12:07:17 pm »

There´s also upward movement @ Gallup today:

45% Approve (+2)
47% Disapprove (-2)
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 232 233 234 235 236 [237] 238 239 240 241 242 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC