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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1014859 times)
Penelope
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« Reply #5925 on: August 31, 2010, 12:19:31 pm »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

If this happens, any idea why?

His address to the nation on the withdraw from Iraq happens tonight. Which is probably going to change this numbers for the better.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5926 on: August 31, 2010, 05:54:46 pm »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

If this happens, any idea why?

His address to the nation on the withdraw from Iraq happens tonight. Which is probably going to change this numbers for the better.

I wonder if it'll help him more than his previous speeches at least.  Those usually hurt his numbers.
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« Reply #5927 on: August 31, 2010, 05:58:57 pm »

If there is real movement towards him (which I'm still a little skeptical about), expect it to lag in the state polling.
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« Reply #5928 on: August 31, 2010, 06:35:47 pm »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

If this happens, any idea why?

His address to the nation on the withdraw from Iraq happens tonight. Which is probably going to change this numbers for the better.
Hey Scifi.

And I tend to agree nationally, but the change in state-by-state results will be interesting.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5929 on: August 31, 2010, 06:36:17 pm »

NY (Quinnipiac): 51-41

OH (Rasmussen): 45-54

CO (Rasmussen): 42-57

...

Interesting:

Rasmussen has 2 different results for Colorado: The Senate release has it 46-53, the Governor release 42-57 and both were conducted on the same day.

His last polls of Colorado had the same issue, iirc
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xavier110
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« Reply #5930 on: August 31, 2010, 06:44:03 pm »

Is he trying to manipulate the gubernatorial numbers?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5931 on: August 31, 2010, 06:54:14 pm »

Update for end of August 2010 (unless something changes greatly in the last couple of days):

All State Polls:  46% Approve (nc), 51% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 47% Approve (nc), 53% Disapprove (+1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  44% Approve (-2), 50% Disapprove (+1)

Need to recorrect slightly...  Last changes will come through tomorrow.

All State Polls:  45% Approve (-1), 51% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 46% Approve (-1), 53% Disapprove (+1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  45% Approve (-1), 50% Disapprove (+1)
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #5932 on: August 31, 2010, 08:16:08 pm »
« Edited: August 31, 2010, 08:18:35 pm by Addicted to Politics »

Is the Obama at 57% approval in New Mexico a bad sample from Rass or what? It seems like it's way too high. I would have expected 51-49 at best.
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Fritz
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« Reply #5933 on: September 01, 2010, 06:19:04 am »

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  151
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 145
white                        too close to call  29
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 15
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 165


Pbrower, why is it that none of your numbers add up right?

3 + 151 + 39 + 145 + 29 + 47 + 15 + 165 = 594.
Electoral votes = 538
Huh
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J. J.
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« Reply #5934 on: September 01, 2010, 10:18:17 am »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

It look like the shift toward Obama is there.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #5935 on: September 01, 2010, 01:04:20 pm »

Gallup:

Approve - 47% (+2)
Disapprove - 45% (-2)
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change08
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« Reply #5936 on: September 01, 2010, 01:06:18 pm »


Iraq bounce. Grin
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #5937 on: September 01, 2010, 01:13:52 pm »

Seems like in the worst case scenario Obama has stabilized his numbers in the past week or so and in the best case scenario we are seeing actual movement for Obama.

Has Obama been below 40% in Gallup yet?
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change08
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« Reply #5938 on: September 01, 2010, 01:23:08 pm »


No.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #5939 on: September 01, 2010, 01:31:28 pm »

That's interesting, I could easily see him having a floor of 40% then. He's had a brutal summer and for him to currently be at 47 with all the problems he's had(economy, brutal prospects for Dem candidates and the mosque issue) is pretty incredible.
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« Reply #5940 on: September 01, 2010, 01:35:09 pm »

That's interesting, I could easily see him having a floor of 40% then. He's had a brutal summer and for him to currently be at 47 with all the problems he's had(economy, brutal prospects for Dem candidates and the mosque issue) is pretty incredible.

Exactly, but as far as the media's concerned, once a politician falls below 50% approval, then their career is dead.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #5941 on: September 01, 2010, 01:35:52 pm »


So the lies and propaganda are working.
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redcommander
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« Reply #5942 on: September 01, 2010, 01:39:48 pm »

WTF is up with Gallop consistently giving him a higher approval than other pollsters?
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change08
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« Reply #5943 on: September 01, 2010, 01:40:37 pm »

WTF is up with Gallop consistently giving him a higher approval than other pollsters?

They were giving him worse than Rasmussen this time last week, weren't they?
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redcommander
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« Reply #5944 on: September 01, 2010, 02:30:03 pm »

WTF is up with Gallop consistently giving him a higher approval than other pollsters?

They were giving him worse than Rasmussen this time last week, weren't they?

The trend has usually been higher.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5945 on: September 01, 2010, 02:54:40 pm »

I'm going to try to correct the numbers here. Usually I have done it piecemeal, changing the numbers for a category when I change the state's category. I must have done so twice a couple times.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                   OK
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39 49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 145 132
white                        too close to call  29 26
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47  23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 15 6
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 165  143 



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......






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CJK
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« Reply #5946 on: September 01, 2010, 02:57:44 pm »

Obama approval rating August 2010 (Gallup)

44% Approve

49% Disapprove

Carter: 41/43 (August 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (August 1982)

Bush I: 75/16 (August 1990)

Clinton: 41/50 (August 1994)

Bush II: 67/27 (August 2002)
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J. J.
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« Reply #5947 on: September 01, 2010, 03:39:01 pm »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

If this happens, any idea why?

His address to the nation on the withdraw from Iraq happens tonight. Which is probably going to change this numbers for the better.

Edu, I have no idea why.

Those numbers were gathered basically, before the speech, so that can be ruled out.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5948 on: September 01, 2010, 03:55:16 pm »

This one is just amazing.  A recent Rasmussen poll gave an approval rating of 44% to President Obama in Alaska, so it is not entirely a fluke.   I don't think that a 45% approval rating in Alaska in April 2012 for Obama would translate into a bare win as it might in Pennsylvania; for obvious reasons he isn't going to campaign in Alaska. But the model has to have some rigidity or it devolves to seat-of-the-pants guesswork which isn't very useful on a large scale.

Alaska has gone only once for a Democratic nominee for President, and I find it hard to see the state going for Obama.  He's likely to get the First Peoples votes, but that won't be enough.  I don't see any good reason for Obama polling so well in Alaska; he hasn't been kissing up to the oil or timber industry.

The now-open Senate seat looks vulnerable for a Democratic takeover.  Tea Party candidates have often slipped badly after winning nomination. 


Alaska Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 31, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly

approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

   

    31% Strongly approve
    15% Somewhat approve
      7% Somewhat disapprove
    47% Strongly disapprove
      0% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                   
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  135
white                        too close to call  23
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%    23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  6
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   143 



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......







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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #5949 on: September 01, 2010, 04:19:11 pm »

46% in Alaska from Rass, 44% from PPP and 40% from the NSRC pollster.

Incredible.
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