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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1014934 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #5950 on: September 01, 2010, 04:33:40 pm »

46% in Alaska from Rass, 44% from PPP and 40% from the NSRC pollster.

Incredible.

Maybe not; these all might be in MOE.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #5951 on: September 01, 2010, 04:44:32 pm »

46% in Alaska from Rass, 44% from PPP and 40% from the NSRC pollster.

Incredible.

Maybe not; these all might be in MOE.
I'm not talking about a trend there. I don't think Obama's going up at this point, I was just commenting on how you wouldn't think that his ratings would be in the 40s in Alaska. Even though he was competitive there in the election pre-Palin.
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« Reply #5952 on: September 01, 2010, 04:49:27 pm »

46% in Alaska from Rass, 44% from PPP and 40% from the NSRC pollster.

Incredible.

Maybe not; these all might be in MOE.
I'm not talking about a trend there. I don't think Obama's going up at this point, I was just commenting on how you wouldn't think that his ratings would be in the 40s in Alaska. Even though he was competitive there in the election pre-Palin.

     Alaskans tend to be very independent-minded. Predicting what they will do next can be difficult.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5953 on: September 01, 2010, 05:03:36 pm »

46% in Alaska from Rass, 44% from PPP and 40% from the NSRC pollster.

Incredible.

Maybe not; these all might be in MOE.

Obama got only 37.9% of the vote in Alaska, and it's hard to believe that the VP choice is worth more than about 4%.  Kerry got 35.5% of the vote there in 2004; Gore got 27.7% of the vote there in 2000 (but Ralph Nader got 10% of the vote),  so Alaska seems to be drifting D if recent polls are correct -- including the 40% approval. With respect to the rest of America?

Alaska has a large military presence, and the effects of the graceful pull-out of US combat forces in Iraq might have an effect analogous to what I recently saw in Georgia. Short of saying that the three polls have huge sampling errors, the most favorable view that the Alaska polls show toward the GOP is that the state itself is running contrary to the political norm. Otherwise this Rasmussen poll portends a disaster for the GOP.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5954 on: September 01, 2010, 05:08:07 pm »

46% in Alaska from Rass, 44% from PPP and 40% from the NSRC pollster.

Incredible.

Maybe not; these all might be in MOE.

Obama got only 37.9% of the vote in Alaska, and it's hard to believe that the VP choice is worth more than about 4%.  Kerry got 35.5% of the vote there in 2004; Gore got 27.7% of the vote there in 2000 (but Ralph Nader got 10% of the vote),  so Alaska seems to be drifting D if recent polls are correct -- including the 40% approval. With respect to the rest of America?

Alaska has a large military presence, and the effects of the graceful pull-out of US combat forces in Iraq might have an effect analogous to what I recently saw in Georgia. Short of saying that the three polls have huge sampling errors, the most favorable view that the Alaska polls show toward the GOP is that the state itself is running contrary to the political norm. Otherwise this Rasmussen poll portends a disaster for the GOP.

I might interpret it as Obama appealing to more local issues.  Energy possibly?
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #5955 on: September 01, 2010, 05:48:57 pm »

46% in Alaska from Rass, 44% from PPP and 40% from the NSRC pollster.

Incredible.

Maybe not; these all might be in MOE.

Obama got only 37.9% of the vote in Alaska, and it's hard to believe that the VP choice is worth more than about 4%.  Kerry got 35.5% of the vote there in 2004; Gore got 27.7% of the vote there in 2000 (but Ralph Nader got 10% of the vote),  so Alaska seems to be drifting D if recent polls are correct -- including the 40% approval. With respect to the rest of America?


Good findings here.  I hadn't noticed, but it could just be a trend toward Dems in Alaska over the long term.  That, along with the national unpopularity of a certain well-known Republican from the state, could be enough to hasten the movement towards Dems.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5956 on: September 02, 2010, 12:30:38 am »

GA (Insider Advantage): 35-64

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/24844214/detail.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5957 on: September 02, 2010, 03:45:48 am »


Push poll.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5958 on: September 02, 2010, 08:23:58 am »
« Edited: September 02, 2010, 08:27:02 am by Mr. Moderate »


(1) Insider Advantage may not be a huge name, but they are non-partisan
(2) That poll was conducted in conjunction with a television station
(3) I don't think you have any idea what a push poll even is
(4) You are ridiculous (in general) and most likely on a dangerous combination of cat drugs
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GLPman
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« Reply #5959 on: September 02, 2010, 08:38:59 am »


(1) Insider Advantage may not be a huge name, but they are non-partisan
(2) That poll was conducted in conjunction with a television station
(3) I don't think you have any idea what a push poll even is
(4) You are ridiculous (in general) and most likely on a dangerous combination of cat drugs

He just doesn't want to change Georgia's color on that wonderful little map that he posts.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5960 on: September 02, 2010, 09:33:17 am »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

I'd still call it a shift to Obama, though not a huge one.  Unless there is big jump against him tomorrow, it is there.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #5961 on: September 02, 2010, 10:05:00 am »

PPP Ohio

41% Approve
54% Disapprove

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/portman-takes-lead.html
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Jbrase
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« Reply #5962 on: September 02, 2010, 10:06:54 am »

Ras: WA: 48/50
OH & GA



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5963 on: September 02, 2010, 10:18:27 am »
« Edited: September 03, 2010, 10:31:39 am by pbrower2a »

Massachusetts State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 1, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

33% Strongly approve
23% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
34% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure



Nevada State Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted September 1, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

33% Strongly approve
15% Somewhat approve
  7% Somewhat disapprove
43% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  135
white                        too close to call  23
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%    23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  6
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   143  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......







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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5964 on: September 02, 2010, 10:32:08 am »

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted September 1, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       29% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       47% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure
29+18+7+47+1=102%
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #5965 on: September 02, 2010, 10:52:32 am »

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted September 1, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       29% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       47% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

Changes only a letter.

Washington State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 31, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    31% Strongly approve
    17% Somewhat approve
      9% Somewhat disapprove
    41% Strongly disapprove
      2% Not sure

Changes nothing.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                   
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  135
white                        too close to call  23
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%    23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  6
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   143 



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......








[/quote]

Shouldn't WA be yellow?
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5966 on: September 02, 2010, 10:53:12 am »


Rounding.

PS to Pbrower: You colored Washington wrong. Should be 30% yellow, according to your key.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #5967 on: September 02, 2010, 10:59:03 am »

So only having 48% approval in WA means he is in the positives still on you map?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5968 on: September 02, 2010, 11:11:49 am »

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted September 1, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       29% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       47% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

Changes only a letter.

Washington State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 31, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    31% Strongly approve
    17% Somewhat approve
      9% Somewhat disapprove
    41% Strongly disapprove
      2% Not sure

Changes nothing.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                   
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  135
white                        too close to call  23
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%    23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  6
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   143 



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......









Shouldn't WA be yellow?
[/quote]

Yes. Corrected.
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Penelope
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« Reply #5969 on: September 02, 2010, 12:18:59 pm »

We appear to be going in circles with the approval ratings by state - considering:

Quote
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^ PB's results exactly one month ago.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5970 on: September 02, 2010, 03:31:41 pm »

We appear to be going in circles with the approval ratings by state - considering:

Quote
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^ PB's results exactly one month ago.


It's when we aren't going around in circles that things are really different. Should the economy tank between now and November we would see that in the polls. Should President Obama get credit for extricating combat forces from Iraq, then we should see that.
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Rowan
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« Reply #5971 on: September 02, 2010, 04:07:44 pm »

So only having 48% approval in WA means he is in the positives still on you map?

You're clearly forgetting the rule of adding 6 to Democratic candidate numbers.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #5972 on: September 02, 2010, 04:16:49 pm »

So only having 48% approval in WA means he is in the positives still on you map?

You're clearly forgetting the rule of adding 6 to Democratic candidate numbers.
And probably another 10 due to the age wave, then at the very least 5 because Obama's ability to utilize the Seatle-Tacoma air hub, so if anything WA should be dark green and will obviously go 70%+ dem in 2012.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #5973 on: September 02, 2010, 07:49:44 pm »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Average approval - 46.4%

Average disapproval - 47.8%
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5974 on: September 03, 2010, 12:20:09 am »

So only having 48% approval in WA means he is in the positives still on you map?

You're clearly forgetting the rule of adding 6 to Democratic candidate numbers.
And probably another 10 due to the age wave, then at the very least 5 because Obama's ability to utilize the Seatle-Tacoma air hub, so if anything WA should be dark green and will obviously go 70%+ dem in 2012.

The predictive system that I use assumes that the incumbent President seeking re-election will add about six percent to his vote share if he actually campaigns in a state and has an effective campaign apparatus in the state, as if he were running for Governor or Senator, and not at all  if he doesn't.

44% is roughly the break-even point for the average campaigner, and I assume that President Obama will be only "average" -- as the model dictates. I also recognize that he will be selective in his campaign appearances, and that if his statewide approval ratings are like this in April 2012:

Tennessee 39%
South Carolina 40%
Indiana 41%
Colorado 42%
North Carolina 43%
Florida 44%   
Virginia 45%
Ohio 46%
Pennsylvania 47%
New Jersey 48%
Iowa 49%
Michigan 50%
Oregon 51%
Minnesota 52%
Connecticut 53%
California 54%
Massachusetts 54%
New York 55%

Nate Silver postulated that a President whose approval rating of 44% nationwide going into the Presidential election had about a 50% chance of winning. 

My system suggests that he and his campaign apparatus would apply his political resources (formal and informal campaign appearances, especially time; advertising budget for media ads, and GOTV efforts) where those could do him the most good. I assume that he is not going to make the quixotic effort to win over Tennessee this time, and he is not going to try to pile up votes in New York when efforts in Florida and Virginia make a difference between winning and losing. Knowing that he could lose Pennsylvania for lack of attention, he will campaign there,  and I figure that he would shore up support in New Jersey, Iowa, Michigan, and Oregon until he is reasonably sure of winning re-election.  Indiana and Colorado look like possibilities until they show otherwise.

It assumes very rigidly that a 45% approval in North Dakota (3 electoral votes) and a 45% approval in Ohio (18 electoral votes) mean the same thing; obviously they don't. He may figure that 45% is an absolute maximum in North Dakota because the state is politically unmovable and that 45%  in Ohio is more movable because the state is less homogeneous. Above all, Ohio can make or break an election, and North Dakota can't. The ratio of effort to reward matters greatly, but this system does not show that.   It also fails to predict how the opponent would show particular strengths or weaknesses. Political culture matters greatly.

It also assumes the absence of a strong independent or third-party candidate who might draw significant votes away from the Republican and Democratic candidates. Such is the monkey wrench thrown carelessly into a precision machine, in which case head-to-head contests are significant. I can't predict how a Ross Perot-type would do in 2012. It also allows for spectacular success and abject failure.  President Obama can still blunder his way into a loss of his bid for re-election, and events can make a fool of him. It also makes no allowances for local issues that make or break a candidacy for re-election.     


... The system would work just the same had we had an incumbent Republican (let us say Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney) who had been elected President, or some other Democrat (Hillary Clinton) in some alternate universe. Do you question that if Mitt Romney were in trouble in Michigan in 2012 and needed the state  that he wouldn't push a "Cash for Clunkers" program? Do you have any doubt that if Mike Huckabee absolutely had to win Florida to win re-election in 2012 and had an approval rating of 47% in the state that he wouldn't do some campaigning there?

The Presidential election is not a monolithic effort to win votes. The 2000 election establishes that the States, and not the People, elect the President. It is fifty statewide races, one for the District of Columbia (a very rigid vote), and five races for the electoral votes of five Congressional seats in Maine and Nebraska. To be sure it is conceivable that the Interstate Compact could kick in  (in which enough states so decide to assign their electoral votes on the basis of the nationwide popular vote) or more states divide their electoral votes as do Maine and Nebraska, in which the predictive value that my system claims falls apart.     



   

 
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