Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 12, 2019, 02:06:57 pm
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 235 236 237 238 239 [240] 241 242 243 244 245 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1014918 times)
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,447
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5975 on: September 03, 2010, 07:48:27 am »

Nate Silver postulated that a President whose approval rating of 44% nationwide going into the Presidential election had about a 50% chance of winning.

Jesus, will you stop saying this? It's blatantly false. Nate Silver never said this.

Nate Silver postulated that an incumbent who polls in head-to-head matchups at 44% had a 50% chance of winning. The phrase here is head-to-head, which is, of course, not what approval ratings are.

I have no trouble with you creating a model for the 2012 election from these approvals, even though I think it's clearly inaccurate (I mean, look at it). What I have trouble with is you saying that this method comes from Nate Silver. It does not, and it never will. This model is all pbrower2a, and carries absolutely no statistical or intellectual backing from Nate Silver.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5976 on: September 03, 2010, 08:37:05 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5977 on: September 03, 2010, 12:31:27 pm »


Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.
Logged
Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5978 on: September 03, 2010, 12:39:49 pm »


Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

No it isn't, but of course Democratics think anything that shows them in trouble is odd, because they are to stupid to know that the avg america don't like what the Democrats and Obama are doing.
Logged
xavier110
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,013
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5979 on: September 03, 2010, 12:42:05 pm »


Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

No it isn't, but of course Democratics think anything that shows them in trouble is odd, because they are to stupid to know that the avg america don't like what the Democrats and Obama are doing.

Thanks, I didn't know this! Plus it's "too" stupid, but that's okay.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,418
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5980 on: September 03, 2010, 12:47:46 pm »

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted September 1, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       29% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       47% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure
29+18+7+47+1=102%

Rounding error.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5981 on: September 03, 2010, 12:50:00 pm »


Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

No it isn't, but of course Democratics think anything that shows them in trouble is odd, because they are to stupid to know that the avg america don't like what the Democrats and Obama are doing.

+3 disapproval since the last poll is rather odd considering President Obama has done literally nothing self destructive in the last few days - unless this is related to Hurricane Earl or that new oil rig explosion, then I could see it.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Windows calculator begs to differ.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,418
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5982 on: September 03, 2010, 12:50:26 pm »
« Edited: September 03, 2010, 03:37:07 pm by pbrower2a »

The infamous dark brown shade appears again:


Idaho Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 31, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    18% Strongly approve
    11% Somewhat approve
    10% Somewhat disapprove
    61% Strongly disapprove
      0% Not sure

But this is just as much to be expected:

New York State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 1, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

41% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve
  6% Somewhat disapprove
32% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  135
white                        too close to call  23
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%    23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  6
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   143  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,418
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5983 on: September 03, 2010, 01:00:50 pm »
« Edited: September 03, 2010, 01:19:27 pm by pbrower2a »


Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

No it isn't, but of course Democratics think anything that shows them in trouble is odd, because they are to stupid to know that the avg america don't like what the Democrats and Obama are doing.

+3 disapproval since the last poll is rather odd considering President Obama has done literally nothing self destructive in the last few days - unless this is related to Hurricane Earl or that new oil rig explosion, then I could see it.

The news cycle. If the 2012 Presidential election is really close, then the events of the previous day might be all the difference in the world. The long term is harder to discern than is the short term.

Should Hurricane Earl be as strong a storm as Hurricane Katrina was, then I expect a better response from the local officials. New England, Long Island, and coastal North Carolina and Virginia are all very different in their politics from New Orleans.  

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Windows calculator begs to differ.

[/quote]

28.6% + 17.6% + 6.6% + 46.6% + 0.6% = 100%.

Unlikely, but possible, but every .6 would be rounded up. Every rounding introduces an error of imprecision, but the errors usually cancel each other out in a final rounding of a total. Not this time, though.
Logged
Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5984 on: September 03, 2010, 01:01:20 pm »


Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

No it isn't, but of course Democratics think anything that shows them in trouble is odd, because they are to stupid to know that the avg america don't like what the Democrats and Obama are doing.

+3 disapproval since the last poll is rather odd considering President Obama has done literally nothing self destructive in the last few days - unless this is related to Hurricane Earl or that new oil rig explosion, then I could see it.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Windows calculator begs to differ.


No all it means it a really good Obama sample is moving out of the poll window dates.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5985 on: September 03, 2010, 01:08:51 pm »


Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

No it isn't, but of course Democratics think anything that shows them in trouble is odd, because they are to stupid to know that the avg america don't like what the Democrats and Obama are doing.

+3 disapproval since the last poll is rather odd considering President Obama has done literally nothing self destructive in the last few days - unless this is related to Hurricane Earl or that new oil rig explosion, then I could see it.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Windows calculator begs to differ.


No all it means it a really good Obama sample is moving out of the poll window dates.

We can argue Good Obama and Bad Obama samples all day.

Pb's results are to be expected. I was rather surprised that Idaho hadn't gone brown yet. I'm guessing Oklahoma is up next.

Logged
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,480


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5986 on: September 03, 2010, 01:43:28 pm »


Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

No it isn't, but of course Democratics think anything that shows them in trouble is odd, because they are to stupid to know that the avg america don't like what the Democrats and Obama are doing.

Is that why Democrats in congress have a higher approval than Republicans?
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,418
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5987 on: September 03, 2010, 03:44:03 pm »

Because seeing the letter on one of the states in dark-brown shades is difficult, I am going to change the color to a near-black red:






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  135
white                        too close to call  23
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%    23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  6
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   143  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

Same meaning, but it even looks better (esthetically, if not politically).
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5988 on: September 03, 2010, 03:46:44 pm »


......

Same meaning, but it even looks better (esthetically, if not politically).

Ah yes! Much better. Although I think your electoral predictions are a bit basic..
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5989 on: September 03, 2010, 03:53:16 pm »


Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

I don't think so,  Phrasing perhaps.  Obama's disapproval numbers have been higher, 56%-58%.  55% is not bad for him.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5990 on: September 03, 2010, 04:26:32 pm »


Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

I don't think so,  Phrasing perhaps.  Obama's disapproval numbers have been higher, 56%-58%.  55% is not bad for him.

Yes, but wasn't he's approval like 52 just in the last poll? I'm just saying I don't know what could've caused such a spike..


Anyways, I'm going to start making daily/weekly 2012 Predictions.




Core Obama States: 10% Margin of Victory

Safe Obama States: 5% Margin of Victory
Leaning Obama States: 1-3% Margin of Victory
Toss Up/To Close to Call
Leaning Republican States: 1-3% Margin of Victory
Safe Republican States: 5% Margin of Victory
Core Republican States: 10% Margin of Victory


It should be noted that this assumes that a moderate republican will get nominated.

RESULT IF HELD ON SEPTEMBER 3RD, 2010:



Obama/Biden: 325

Republican: 213

It's important to remember that the results of the 2012 election will rely on not only Obama's Approval ratings, but also the performance of the Republican Congress through 2011-2012, and the nominated candidate.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,418
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5991 on: September 03, 2010, 04:56:02 pm »


......

Same meaning, but it even looks better (esthetically, if not politically).

Ah yes! Much better. Although I think your electoral predictions are a bit basic..

The rules are rigid, but they must be to be reasonable. Most reasonable polls, which is now down to Rasmussen and Quinnipiac. PPP seems to have gone over-cautious on the R side, apparently because the left-wing Daily Kos has it and had trouble with its prior pollster for being too favorable to Democrats.



Logged
ConservativeIllini
Full Member
***
Posts: 104


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5992 on: September 03, 2010, 05:11:55 pm »


......

Same meaning, but it even looks better (esthetically, if not politically).

Ah yes! Much better. Although I think your electoral predictions are a bit basic..

The rules are rigid, but they must be to be reasonable. Most reasonable polls, which is now down to Rasmussen and Quinnipiac. PPP seems to have gone over-cautious on the R side, apparently because the left-wing Daily Kos has it and had trouble with its prior pollster for being too favorable to Democrats.





Regarding PPP, the reasoning could be that it recently switched over to polling likely voters for the midterm elections as opposed to its normal registered voters (or perhaps its adults, not entirely sure).  Regardless, that's bound to favor Republicans in a year such as this in which the R base is fired up to vote. 
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5993 on: September 03, 2010, 07:18:32 pm »

Great, another hack making maps.
Logged
Fritz
JLD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,660
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5994 on: September 03, 2010, 08:12:37 pm »

It's important to remember that the results of the 2012 election will rely on not only Obama's Approval ratings, but also the performance of the Republican Congress through 2011-2012, and the nominated candidate.

It's a tad bit premature to be calling the Congress of 2011-2012 "Republican".
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5995 on: September 04, 2010, 04:27:35 am »

It's important to remember that the results of the 2012 election will rely on not only Obama's Approval ratings, but also the performance of the Republican Congress through 2011-2012, and the nominated candidate.

It's a tad bit premature to be calling the Congress of 2011-2012 "Republican".

Not really, it's becoming increasingly obvious. Perhaps I should've phrased it better though - the Republican House. The Senate will be a different story, but it could just as easy to call it Republican.


OK, if your definition of hack is not showing a republican landslide in 2012, then by all means, I am a hack. I'm sorry, but I'm going by polls here, not some arbitrary libertarian dream that Obama is Black Carter.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5996 on: September 04, 2010, 08:39:39 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42%, -2.

Disapprove 56%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +2.

Fairly substantial drop over the last two days.  It could be a bad sample (anti-Obama).  Overall, this are at the low end of the Obama range over the summer, but still within range.

With the holiday, we could see what the late week numbers look like.


Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5997 on: September 04, 2010, 10:37:08 am »

Except numbers to go up next week, he's unveiling another economic recovery package.

Logged
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,199
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5998 on: September 04, 2010, 11:14:50 am »

Except numbers to go up next week, he's unveiling another economic recovery package.



I doubt. people don"t trust Obama anymore. It's the second time that Obama is strongly down after a speech.
Logged
Saff
MATCHU[D]
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,666
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5999 on: September 04, 2010, 11:18:24 am »

Except numbers to go up next week, he's unveiling another economic recovery package.



I doubt. people don"t trust Obama anymore. It's the second time that Obama is strongly down after a speech.

It's the poor economic numbers that have come out that are hurting him, his speech isn't going to help him out so much. I can see his numbers start to rebound once he does his tour and announces this new "recovery package".
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 235 236 237 238 239 [240] 241 242 243 244 245 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC