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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015353 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #6025 on: September 06, 2010, 12:54:07 am »

It's Labor Day weekend...

Why would anyone trust polling right now?

Most of what we are looking at is from before the holiday.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6026 on: September 06, 2010, 12:58:24 am »

Gallup

45 +2
48 -1
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J. J.
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« Reply #6027 on: September 06, 2010, 10:08:03 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, +3.

Disapprove 54%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, -1.

If this was a bad sample, it should start passing tomorrow.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6028 on: September 06, 2010, 01:46:13 pm »

Gallup: 44/49

It has been more stable than Rasmussen recently.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6029 on: September 06, 2010, 02:48:41 pm »

Gallup: 44/49

It has been more stable than Rasmussen recently.

Just over the last 3-4 days.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #6030 on: September 06, 2010, 03:06:41 pm »

It's Labor Day weekend polling...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6031 on: September 06, 2010, 03:08:47 pm »
« Edited: September 06, 2010, 03:17:48 pm by pbrower2a »

PPP seems to have worked the bugs out, so I am going to accept its most recent poll for North Carolina.

  Nebraska State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 2, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

18% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
51% Strongly disapprove
  3% Not sure






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  135
white                        too close to call  8
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  6
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   143  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

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Penelope
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« Reply #6032 on: September 06, 2010, 03:11:58 pm »

Shouldn't North Carolina be Leaning GOP?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6033 on: September 06, 2010, 03:18:18 pm »

Shouldn't North Carolina be Leaning GOP?

Yes. Corrected, thank you.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6034 on: September 07, 2010, 01:58:58 am »

Even the Washington Post/ABC News has him at 46/52 now!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6035 on: September 07, 2010, 03:33:37 am »

Even the Washington Post/ABC News has him at 46/52 now!

OH NOESSSSS
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6036 on: September 07, 2010, 09:19:14 am »
« Edited: September 07, 2010, 01:58:52 pm by pbrower2a »

Delaware State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 2, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

30% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve
  7% Somewhat disapprove
43% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 6, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       36% Strongly approve
       19% Somewhat approve
         6% Somewhat disapprove
       37% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  153
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   52
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  135
white                        too close to call  8
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  6
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   143  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6037 on: September 07, 2010, 09:34:11 am »

You should colour DE white, itīs a 50-50 tie.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #6038 on: September 07, 2010, 10:42:22 am »

DE, NE, & NC


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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J. J.
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« Reply #6039 on: September 07, 2010, 02:35:45 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, u.

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Jbrase
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« Reply #6040 on: September 07, 2010, 03:21:07 pm »

CA Rasmussen, no change.


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Penelope
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« Reply #6041 on: September 07, 2010, 03:29:02 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2010, 03:34:04 pm by Scifiguy »

You should colour DE white, itīs a 50-50 tie.

The notion that the GOP has the ability to challenge Delaware is hilarious.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #6042 on: September 07, 2010, 04:04:39 pm »

You should colour DE white, itīs a 50-50 tie.

The notion that the GOP has the ability to challenge Delaware is hilarious.
Coloring white for a tie has nothing to do with Obama vs a GOPer in 2012, its simply meaning his approval/disapproval is tied at the moment.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6043 on: September 07, 2010, 04:07:23 pm »

Gallup:  46/47
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Dgov
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« Reply #6044 on: September 07, 2010, 04:11:44 pm »

New Jersey is 50-50, don't know the strong/weak approval breakdown:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/new_jersey/57_in_new_jersey_approve_of_governor_s_job_performance
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Jbrase
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« Reply #6045 on: September 07, 2010, 04:16:54 pm »

New Jersey, still tied.


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Penelope
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« Reply #6046 on: September 07, 2010, 04:32:33 pm »

You should colour DE white, itīs a 50-50 tie.

The notion that the GOP has the ability to challenge Delaware is hilarious.
Coloring white for a tie has nothing to do with Obama vs a GOPer in 2012, its simply meaning his approval/disapproval is tied at the moment.

Ohhhh.... I thought he was talking about Pbrower's 2012 prediction.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6047 on: September 07, 2010, 04:38:40 pm »

New Jersey, still tied.


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

If that would translate into the election, Obama might not break 205 EV's (redistricting is a factor).
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Jbrase
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« Reply #6048 on: September 07, 2010, 04:53:43 pm »

You should colour DE white, itīs a 50-50 tie.

The notion that the GOP has the ability to challenge Delaware is hilarious.
Coloring white for a tie has nothing to do with Obama vs a GOPer in 2012, its simply meaning his approval/disapproval is tied at the moment.

Ohhhh.... I thought he was talking about Pbrower's 2012 prediction.
lol, just ignore Pbrower's prediction map. Its just his wet dreams for Obama's re-election, he has it as currently favoring an Obama win in Alaska lol...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6049 on: September 07, 2010, 05:21:11 pm »

You should colour DE white, itīs a 50-50 tie.

The notion that the GOP has the ability to challenge Delaware is hilarious.
Coloring white for a tie has nothing to do with Obama vs a GOPer in 2012, its simply meaning his approval/disapproval is tied at the moment.

White is for a tie under 50%. Look carefully at my rules. Any changes that I have made are either to add information or to change the general appearance. Others would violate consistency, and I am not doing so now.
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