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Penelope
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« Reply #6050 on: September 07, 2010, 06:49:37 pm »

You should colour DE white, it´s a 50-50 tie.

The notion that the GOP has the ability to challenge Delaware is hilarious.
Coloring white for a tie has nothing to do with Obama vs a GOPer in 2012, its simply meaning his approval/disapproval is tied at the moment.

Ohhhh.... I thought he was talking about Pbrower's 2012 prediction.
lol, just ignore Pbrower's prediction map. Its just his wet dreams for Obama's re-election, he has it as currently favoring an Obama win in Alaska lol...

Oh god I can't wait until you see the Obama landslide on Election Night 2012. Find a GOP candidate who can campaign as charismatically and is as likable as Barack Obama and get back to me.
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« Reply #6051 on: September 07, 2010, 06:51:37 pm »

If that would translate into the election, Obama might not break 205 EV's (redistricting is a factor).

Except that can't translate into an election - Obama won't be winning New Mexico while losing Minnesota and Washington, for example.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #6052 on: September 07, 2010, 06:54:39 pm »

If that would translate into the election, Obama might not break 205 EV's (redistricting is a factor).

Except that can't translate into an election - Obama won't be winning New Mexico while losing Minnesota and Washington, for example.

There's no rule that says that can't happen.
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Penelope
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« Reply #6053 on: September 07, 2010, 06:57:13 pm »

If that would translate into the election, Obama might not break 205 EV's (redistricting is a factor).

Except that can't translate into an election - Obama won't be winning New Mexico while losing Minnesota and Washington, for example.

Exactly. Obama could continue to fail as a President and he can still win re-election. The approval ratings effect the result somewhat, but the result is primarily decided by the campaign and debates. And Obama is, to be honest, the most charismatic President since Reagan. You cannot tell me with a straight face that Newt Gingrich will break 200 EV's in 2012 if he is the nominee.

If that would translate into the election, Obama might not break 205 EV's (redistricting is a factor).

Except that can't translate into an election - Obama won't be winning New Mexico while losing Minnesota and Washington, for example.

There's no rule that says that can't happen.

Actually there is. It's the fact that Washington and Minnesota are exceptionally liberal states and the GOP is exceptionally conservative.

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« Reply #6054 on: September 07, 2010, 07:17:49 pm »

Oh god I can't wait until you see the Obama landslide on Election Night 2012. Find a GOP candidate who can campaign as charismatically and is as likable as Barack Obama and get back to me.

I'm not saying Obama won't get re-elected, but don't expect some epic 49 state sweep like Reagan in 1984. It is pointless to make predictions until we see
1) who the GOP nominee is and to a lessor extent the minor parties nominees;
2) The Un-employment numbers going into fall 2012; and
3) The situation in Afghanistan by 2012.

That being said, I do feel pretty confident with the following prediction: Indiana will not vote Obama twice and the GOP will Keep Kentucky & Alaska. despite Pbrowers maps insisting those two states will be in play lol.







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Penelope
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« Reply #6055 on: September 07, 2010, 07:33:17 pm »

Oh god I can't wait until you see the Obama landslide on Election Night 2012. Find a GOP candidate who can campaign as charismatically and is as likable as Barack Obama and get back to me.

I'm not saying Obama won't get re-elected, but don't expect some epic 49 state sweep like Reagan in 1984. It is pointless to make predictions until we see
1) who the GOP nominee is and to a lessor extent the minor parties nominees;
2) The Un-employment numbers going into fall 2012; and
3) The situation in Afghanistan by 2012.

That being said, I do feel pretty confident with the following prediction: Indiana will not vote Obama twice and the GOP will Keep Kentucky & Alaska. despite Pbrowers maps insisting those two states will be in play lol.

1) This is almost irrelevent by this point. The GOP's best hope is Mitch Daniels, but I still haven't seen any speeches by him, and I doubt he will even run.
2) This, this here is the killer. If Employment numbers are trending into double digits then it's going to get a bit contested.
3) He can still blame the war on Bush, as easy as that would be, but it would still work relatively well.

 Indiana will be in play, unless Daniels gets the nod. And I hardly expect a 1984, perhaps at the most a re-play of 1964 if someone exceptionally insane gets the nod. I think it'll go GOP unless we get Newt/Barbour/Palin as nominee. If N/B/P is the nominee, then you are looking at this:

N/B/P v. Obama



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« Reply #6056 on: September 07, 2010, 07:56:43 pm »

I think there's a good chance the Republicans will be reduced to Utah, Idaho and Wyoming. It's even possible they could lose Utah if they pick the wrong kind of candidate.
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Bo
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« Reply #6057 on: September 07, 2010, 08:01:35 pm »

Oh god I can't wait until you see the Obama landslide on Election Night 2012. Find a GOP candidate who can campaign as charismatically and is as likable as Barack Obama and get back to me.

I'm not saying Obama won't get re-elected, but don't expect some epic 49 state sweep like Reagan in 1984. It is pointless to make predictions until we see
1) who the GOP nominee is and to a lessor extent the minor parties nominees;
2) The Un-employment numbers going into fall 2012; and
3) The situation in Afghanistan by 2012.

That being said, I do feel pretty confident with the following prediction: Indiana will not vote Obama twice and the GOP will Keep Kentucky & Alaska. despite Pbrowers maps insisting those two states will be in play lol.

1) This is almost irrelevent by this point. The GOP's best hope is Mitch Daniels, but I still haven't seen any speeches by him, and I doubt he will even run.
2) This, this here is the killer. If Employment numbers are trending into double digits then it's going to get a bit contested.
3) He can still blame the war on Bush, as easy as that would be, but it would still work relatively well.

 Indiana will be in play, unless Daniels gets the nod. And I hardly expect a 1984, perhaps at the most a re-play of 1964 if someone exceptionally insane gets the nod. I think it'll go GOP unless we get Newt/Barbour/Palin as nominee. If N/B/P is the nominee, then you are looking at this:

N/B/P v. Obama





No way Obama wins TN, KY, and NE. Those states are just too conservative and anti-Obama for him to win there, regardless of who the GOP nominates. And high unemployment would probably hurt Obama in 2012 regardless of his opponent. I agree with you that Obama will win reelection, even though I'm no longer sure that he will win in a landslide. He could win with 290-330 EVs against someone competent like Mitch Daniels or John Thune.
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« Reply #6058 on: September 07, 2010, 08:04:15 pm »

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Iraq he can blame entirely on Bush but Iraq is winding down anyways so won't matter as much, but pinning any downturns in Afghanistan on Bush will comeback to haunt him and give the GOP the ammo of saying "See, he blames everything on Bush!" wether or not they are justified in doing so, the Democrats have had control of congress for about 4 years the last 2 years of which they had huge majorities not seen for a long time, and the white house for approaching 2 years. It will be harder and harder to continue passing the blame on to the predecessor. It may have worked in 2008, but by 2012 I suspect voters will see the Dem's blaming Bush as a turn off.
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Penelope
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« Reply #6059 on: September 07, 2010, 08:22:44 pm »

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Iraq he can blame entirely on Bush but Iraq is winding down anyways so won't matter as much, but pinning any downturns in Afghanistan on Bush will comeback to haunt him and give the GOP the ammo of saying "See, he blames everything on Bush!" wether or not they are justified in doing so, the Democrats have had control of congress for about 4 years the last 2 years of which they had huge majorities not seen for a long time, and the white house for approaching 2 years. It will be harder and harder to continue passing the blame on to the predecessor. It may have worked in 2008, but by 2012 I suspect voters will see the Dem's blaming Bush as a turn off.

The problem is that voters will still hate Bush in 2012, and Obama's approval will be divided, but will not in any way will the average voter see Obama as a failure. Right now there is not a single believable poll that shows the GOP more 'popular' than the Democrats. They are trending higher, but right now people just hate the Democrats - and are voting GOP because they have no choice.

And Kentucky/TN can go Dem, I believe, they are more likely to go Dem than the Deep South.
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« Reply #6060 on: September 07, 2010, 08:34:45 pm »

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Iraq he can blame entirely on Bush but Iraq is winding down anyways so won't matter as much, but pinning any downturns in Afghanistan on Bush will comeback to haunt him and give the GOP the ammo of saying "See, he blames everything on Bush!" wether or not they are justified in doing so, the Democrats have had control of congress for about 4 years the last 2 years of which they had huge majorities not seen for a long time, and the white house for approaching 2 years. It will be harder and harder to continue passing the blame on to the predecessor. It may have worked in 2008, but by 2012 I suspect voters will see the Dem's blaming Bush as a turn off.

The problem is that voters will still hate Bush in 2012, and Obama's approval will be divided, but will not in any way will the average voter see Obama as a failure. Right now there is not a single believable poll that shows the GOP more 'popular' than the Democrats. They are trending higher, but right now people just hate the Democrats - and are voting GOP because they have no choice.

And Kentucky/TN can go Dem, I believe, they are more likely to go Dem than the Deep South.

You have a point. One should realize that voter anger is at congressional Democrats, while they're lukewarm it seems on the President.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6061 on: September 07, 2010, 11:16:42 pm »

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Iraq he can blame entirely on Bush but Iraq is winding down anyways so won't matter as much, but pinning any downturns in Afghanistan on Bush will comeback to haunt him and give the GOP the ammo of saying "See, he blames everything on Bush!" wether or not they are justified in doing so, the Democrats have had control of congress for about 4 years the last 2 years of which they had huge majorities not seen for a long time, and the white house for approaching 2 years. It will be harder and harder to continue passing the blame on to the predecessor. It may have worked in 2008, but by 2012 I suspect voters will see the Dem's blaming Bush as a turn off.

The problem is that voters will still hate Bush in 2012, and Obama's approval will be divided, but will not in any way will the average voter see Obama as a failure. Right now there is not a single believable poll that shows the GOP more 'popular' than the Democrats. They are trending higher, but right now people just hate the Democrats - and are voting GOP because they have no choice.

And Kentucky/TN can go Dem, I believe, they are more likely to go Dem than the Deep South.

Right not, they are holding the Democrats responsible for the economy (not fixing it).
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« Reply #6062 on: September 07, 2010, 11:23:07 pm »

If that would translate into the election, Obama might not break 205 EV's (redistricting is a factor).

Except that can't translate into an election - Obama won't be winning New Mexico while losing Minnesota and Washington, for example.

Exactly. Obama could continue to fail as a President and he can still win re-election. The approval ratings effect the result somewhat, but the result is primarily decided by the campaign and debates. And Obama is, to be honest, the most charismatic President since Reagan. You cannot tell me with a straight face that Newt Gingrich will break 200 EV's in 2012 if he is the nominee.

If that would translate into the election, Obama might not break 205 EV's (redistricting is a factor).

Except that can't translate into an election - Obama won't be winning New Mexico while losing Minnesota and Washington, for example.

There's no rule that says that can't happen.

Actually there is. It's the fact that Washington and Minnesota are exceptionally liberal states and the GOP is exceptionally conservative.



Oh, I forgot the rule that says the electoral map will always remain static. No Democrat will ever win without the Solid South. No Republican will ever win without Vermont.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6063 on: September 07, 2010, 11:58:06 pm »

Oh god I can't wait until you see the Obama landslide on Election Night 2012. Find a GOP candidate who can campaign as charismatically and is as likable as Barack Obama and get back to me.

I'm not saying Obama won't get re-elected, but don't expect some epic 49 state sweep like Reagan in 1984. It is pointless to make predictions until we see
1) who the GOP nominee is and to a lessor extent the minor parties nominees;
2) The Un-employment numbers going into fall 2012; and
3) The situation in Afghanistan by 2012.

That being said, I do feel pretty confident with the following prediction: Indiana will not vote Obama twice and the GOP will Keep Kentucky & Alaska. despite Pbrowers maps insisting those two states will be in play lol.

1) This is almost irrelevent by this point. The GOP's best hope is Mitch Daniels, but I still haven't seen any speeches by him, and I doubt he will even run.
2) This, this here is the killer. If Employment numbers are trending into double digits then it's going to get a bit contested.
3) He can still blame the war on Bush, as easy as that would be, but it would still work relatively well.

 Indiana will be in play, unless Daniels gets the nod. And I hardly expect a 1984, perhaps at the most a re-play of 1964 if someone exceptionally insane gets the nod. I think it'll go GOP unless we get Newt/Barbour/Palin as nominee. If N/B/P is the nominee, then you are looking at this:

N/B/P v. Obama





I support Obama, but I'm not that optimistic.

I think GA or MS will go Dem before TN or KY do under Obama... but... I doubt any of them will.

Voters memories don't last long, and Obama needs to do better, and have a stronger argument than "it's Bush's fault" in order to win.

Anyone can be elected President with the right/wrong circumstances - it's far far too early to make calls either way.

Unemployment is already in double-digits in some states

36   TENNESSEE   9.8
39   GEORGIA   9.9
39   KENTUCKY   9.9
41   INDIANA   10.2
42   ILLINOIS   10.3
42   OHIO   10.3
44   OREGON   10.6
45   MISSISSIPPI   10.8
45   SOUTH CAROLINA   10.8
47   FLORIDA   11.5
48   RHODE ISLAND   11.9
49   CALIFORNIA   12.3
50   MICHIGAN   13.1
51   NEVADA   14.3

Some of those states will be crucial for Obama's re-election.

And for the War... ok palm Iraq off on Bush... but people don't care about Iraq now... they care about Afghanistan, and unfortunately Obama has taken full ownership of that s**tstorm.
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« Reply #6064 on: September 08, 2010, 12:51:38 am »

NBC/WSJ: 45/49

Favorable/unfavorable: 46/41
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« Reply #6065 on: September 08, 2010, 08:58:21 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 54%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, -1.

While there was a slight improvement for Obama in late August/early September, it proved to be ephemeral.


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« Reply #6066 on: September 08, 2010, 09:51:18 am »

Hmmmm... NBC/WSJ shows him at -4 for approval but +5 on favorables in the same poll.  Maybe it turns out that many Americans don't approve of the way things are going but they generally still like the guy.

As a political junkie, I'm almost hoping that the day before election day we have Obama at 49% approval/51% disapproval but 51% favorable/49% unfavorable among likely voters.  That would wind up being one of the more unpredictable but oh-so-close elections in history.  You would have a solid chunk of the population going out to vote that day not having made up their mind.
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« Reply #6067 on: September 08, 2010, 10:02:18 am »

To go back to yesterday's discussion - Obama's charismatic campaign of 2008 will not translate to 2012. He's been seen as the fraud he is, and no mantra of "hope and change" or any other rhetorical slogan will help him out this time. People now see through Obama.

The only way he wins re-election is if the economy is much stronger. However, with economists predicting it to be ~9% through 2011, I just don't see that happening.

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« Reply #6068 on: September 08, 2010, 10:20:40 am »

oooh, i was part of that NBC/WSJ poll!  they called on 8/27 and went through the whole thing with me.
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« Reply #6069 on: September 08, 2010, 11:20:01 am »

My favorite part about this thread is how terribly disconnected it is from the rest of the forum.
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« Reply #6070 on: September 08, 2010, 12:05:38 pm »

To go back to yesterday's discussion - Obama's charismatic campaign of 2008 will not translate to 2012. He's been seen as the fraud he is, and no mantra of "hope and change" or any other rhetorical slogan will help him out this time. People now see through Obama.

Even if President Obama is the 'fraud" that you say he is, remember that the US electorate voted to re-elect George W. Bush, who presided over an economic boom best described as the greatest fraud of all time and who had lied to start a war for profit and his ego in Iraq. Dubya demonstrates that a President can get away with much and still be re-elected. Of course, things fell apart badly in the second term as the financial system imploded and "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" increasingly seemed a travesty. Americans did not quite recognize what a disaster George W. Bush was until well into his second term -- about in time for the 2006 election.

Any recovery from the current economic disaster, one that struck before Barack Obama  was elected, will be slow and halting. It will require changes in the ways in which Americans do business -- something that no politician can force. Recovery will fail if the "solution" is to simply throw money at those who caused the disaster.  A boom similar to that of the Double Zero Decade is no longer possible.

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We shall see. Efforts will matter more than will immediate results. The worst possible course is now to do nothing, eminently possible in the event of gridlock in which a Republican-dominated House of Congress decides to make the first priority of business the discreditation of President Obama -- in which case he will run in 2012 much as Harry Truman did against a "Do-nothing Congress" or something even easier (like "Do Wrong" or "Undo Everything") to disparage.

FDR was able to win re-election in 1936 even with unemployment much higher than it was in 1928.



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« Reply #6071 on: September 08, 2010, 12:09:48 pm »
« Edited: September 09, 2010, 02:39:33 pm by pbrower2a »

Arizona State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 7, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

 

   24% Strongly approve
   15% Somewhat approve
     5% Somewhat disapprove
   54% Strongly disapprove
     1% Not sure

Kentucky Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted September 7, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President … do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

    22% Strongly approve
    14% Somewhat approve
    11% Somewhat disapprove
    53% Strongly disapprove
      0% Not sure

Missouri State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 7, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    25% Strongly approve
    15% Somewhat approve
       9% Somewhat disapprove
    49% Strongly disapprove
      2% Not sure





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  153
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   52
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  122
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  17
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   151  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

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« Reply #6072 on: September 08, 2010, 01:22:09 pm »

ME: PPP

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%


TX: PPP
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 39%
Disapprove...................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%
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« Reply #6073 on: September 08, 2010, 02:03:59 pm »
« Edited: September 08, 2010, 04:31:37 pm by pbrower2a »

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%


If this is the way things are going I may need to emigrate sometime in January 2013. I would never survive a fascist dictatorship.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  153
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   52
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  130
white                        too close to call  4
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  7
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   151  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

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« Reply #6074 on: September 08, 2010, 02:10:28 pm »

I may attempt to purchase an apartment in Canada if things keep going this way.

Still, it's important to remember that the only President to win election and then lose his election to the same opposition party was Jimmy Carter. So if GOPer's want to take back the White House in 2012, Obama will have to be as big of a failure as Carter, and they'll also have to find another Reagan.
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