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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015070 times)
Dgov
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« Reply #6150 on: September 14, 2010, 04:40:28 pm »

PPP Has a whole slew out, and they're not good for the Democrats:

Delaware: 46-48
Illinonis: 49-46
Florida: 39-55
Nevada: 44-52
Wisconsin: 45-50
New Hampshire: 44-52
Colorado: 44-50
Washington: 49-47
California: 54-39

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-liability-in-senate-battlegrounds.html
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change08
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« Reply #6151 on: September 14, 2010, 04:42:43 pm »

PPP Has a whole slew out, and they're not good for the Democrats:

Delaware: 46-48
Illinonis: 49-46
Florida: 39-55
Nevada: 44-52
Wisconsin: 45-50
New Hampshire: 44-52
Colorado: 44-50
Washington: 49-47
California: 54-39

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-liability-in-senate-battlegrounds.html

Not really. The only ones out of the norm of who we've been seeing is Delaware (Rass had it 50-50, but w/e) and Florida. FL seems to low. Everything else is about the same as what we've been seeing in general from PPP.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6152 on: September 14, 2010, 05:06:02 pm »

PPP Has a whole slew out, and they're not good for the Democrats:

Delaware: 46-48
Illinonis: 49-46
Florida: 39-55
Nevada: 44-52
Wisconsin: 45-50
New Hampshire: 44-52
Colorado: 44-50
Washington: 49-47
California: 54-39

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-liability-in-senate-battlegrounds.html

Not really. The only ones out of the norm of who we've been seeing is Delaware (Rass had it 50-50, but w/e) and Florida. FL seems to low. Everything else is about the same as what we've been seeing in general from PPP.

Oh, sorry, I forgot to mention that this was a poll of the states with competitive Senate Races, and Obama having below 50% Approval in all but 1 along with underwater approvals in all but 3 does not bode well for the Democrats.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6153 on: September 14, 2010, 06:01:17 pm »




30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Washington should be Yellow
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6154 on: September 15, 2010, 12:49:06 am »

PPP Has a whole slew out, and they're not good for the Democrats:

Delaware: 46-48
Illinonis: 49-46
Florida: 39-55
Nevada: 44-52
Wisconsin: 45-50
New Hampshire: 44-52
Colorado: 44-50
Washington: 49-47
California: 54-39

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-liability-in-senate-battlegrounds.html

IMPORTANT: these are not new polls, it´s just a collection of their prior releases to show Obama`s impact in Senate races !!!

Do not use these figures in your maps.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6155 on: September 15, 2010, 12:58:27 am »

PPP Has a whole slew out, and they're not good for the Democrats:

Delaware: 46-48
Illinonis: 49-46
Florida: 39-55
Nevada: 44-52
Wisconsin: 45-50
New Hampshire: 44-52
Colorado: 44-50
Washington: 49-47
California: 54-39

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-liability-in-senate-battlegrounds.html

IMPORTANT: these are not new polls, it´s just a collection of their prior releases to show Obama`s impact in Senate races !!!

Do not use these figures in your maps.

Wait, really?  Sorry, They didn't make that clear in the Blog post.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6156 on: September 15, 2010, 08:57:01 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, u.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6157 on: September 15, 2010, 02:44:04 pm »
« Edited: September 15, 2010, 03:46:52 pm by pbrower2a »

Pennsylvania Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted September 13, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

   26% Strongly approve

   21% Somewhat approve

   11% Somewhat disapprove

   40% Strongly disapprove

     2% Not sure

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted September 14, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

31% Strongly approve

    15% Somewhat approve

      8% Somewhat disapprove

    46% Strongly disapprove

      1% Not sure

Vermont Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted September 13, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

    41% Strongly approve

    22% Somewhat approve

      7% Somewhat disapprove

    30% Strongly disapprove

      0% Not sure

Ohio Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 13, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       32% Strongly approve

       12% Somewhat approve

         8% Somewhat disapprove

       46% Strongly disapprove

         2% Not sure





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call  54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  66
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   114  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......


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« Reply #6158 on: September 15, 2010, 03:01:13 pm »

Vermont owns.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6159 on: September 15, 2010, 03:53:58 pm »

Pbrower, how is a 44% approval in Colorado a pure toss-up but a 45% approval in Wisconsin is lean Democrat?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6160 on: September 15, 2010, 04:12:13 pm »

Pbrower, how is a 44% approval in Colorado a pure toss-up but a 45% approval in Wisconsin is lean Democrat?

An incumbent normally has a 6% advantage over a challenger during a statewide campaign (Governor, US Senate, maybe a single-district House seat) or a Presidential election.  unless he implodes through scandals, extreme gaffes, or international debacles. This advantage is not enough to rescue a failure, and it might not apply when the incumbent faces a third-party nominee on his side of the political spectrum.

The President gets plenty of attention from the media and his campaign can usually compliment the President's statements. The challenger or someone running for the open seat has no such luck.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6161 on: September 15, 2010, 04:15:22 pm »

Pbrower, how is a 44% approval in Colorado a pure toss-up but a 45% approval in Wisconsin is lean Democrat?

An incumbent normally has a 6% advantage over a challenger during a statewide campaign (Governor, US Senate, maybe a single-district House seat) or a Presidential election.  unless he implodes through scandals, extreme gaffes, or international debacles. This advantage is not enough to rescue a failure, and it might not apply when the incumbent faces a third-party nominee on his side of the political spectrum.

The President gets plenty of attention from the media and his campaign can usually compliment the President's statements. The challenger or someone running for the open seat has no such luck.
Lets just pretend for a second that your theory makes sense...
45+6=51
That would put a Republican at around 48%. That would give Obama about a 3 point lead. According to your own "rules", lean Democrat is 5-9% margin, which is well above 3 points.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6162 on: September 15, 2010, 04:58:28 pm »

General note about the Strongly/Somewhat question that Rassmussen uses.  I hate it, I really do.  You know why?  Because I somewhat approve of what Obama has done in office.  I also somewhat DISAPPROVE of what he's done in office.  I really wish they would just go with approve/disapprove, I would imagine it is actually a lot more accurate.  Unless, they start with that first question... and THEN ask "do you strongly or only somewhat approve/disapprove"... but I still think the simple 2-answer question is better [/rant]

Anyhoo, I think if Pennsylvania's newest numbers are anywhere close to correct, then Obama's in good shape for the state in 2012.  40% willing to say they STRONGLY disapprove (even though I hate the system) is on the low side compared to the national average. 

I'd love to see another election where the GOP throws a ton of resources at Pennsylvania.  It's the GOP's wet dream in the same way Texas is going to be the Democrats' down the road.  I don't think it's winnable for them in a close election.  They're better off going in attack mode on FL, OH, VA, and CO.  Without one of those four the Democrats are screwed and as of today Obama would NOT win any of them. 
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #6163 on: September 16, 2010, 11:43:49 am »

Today's Rassmussen polls:
NH: 47% approve, 51% disapprove
DE: 54% approve, 43% disapprove
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WillK
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« Reply #6164 on: September 16, 2010, 11:51:50 am »

Lets just pretend for a second that your theory makes sense...
45+6=51
That would put a Republican at around 48%. ....
Only if you assume that the Dem% + the Rep% = 100%, which is rarely true. 
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6165 on: September 16, 2010, 01:25:01 pm »

Gallup: 45/48
Rasmussen: 45/54
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muon2
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« Reply #6166 on: September 16, 2010, 02:04:24 pm »

PPP Has a whole slew out, and they're not good for the Democrats:

Delaware: 46-48
Illinonis: 49-46
Florida: 39-55
Nevada: 44-52
Wisconsin: 45-50
New Hampshire: 44-52
Colorado: 44-50
Washington: 49-47
California: 54-39

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-liability-in-senate-battlegrounds.html

I don't think that they would all hold, especially FL. But if they do hold, I might want to find another country.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  60
white                        too close to call  33
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  66
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   142  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......



If I read this right, the PPP blip would mark the first time that the sum of Obama's red states in your model is less than 270 EV. What controls the number when you include polls on the same day, such as FL yesterday?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6167 on: September 16, 2010, 06:32:11 pm »
« Edited: September 17, 2010, 09:02:29 am by pbrower2a »

Massachusetts State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 15, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

34% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
35% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure
Wisconsin State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 15, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

29% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
40% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  159
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   61
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call  46
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  66
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   114  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......



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Alcon
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« Reply #6168 on: September 16, 2010, 10:24:07 pm »

I think you colored Washington incorrectly
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Zarn
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« Reply #6169 on: September 16, 2010, 10:57:24 pm »

I think you colored Washington incorrectly

What if he failed Kindergarten, and you just exposed him on the forum? How bad would you feel about that? Exactly.
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« Reply #6170 on: September 16, 2010, 10:59:35 pm »



Failing is the word you're looking for.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6171 on: September 17, 2010, 08:50:17 am »
« Edited: September 18, 2010, 08:55:40 am by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +2.


The ranges from 8/1/10) have been:

Approve:  41-48 (7 points)
Disapprove:  51-58 (7 points)

Strongly Approve:  23-31 (8 points)
Strongly Disapprove:  41-47 (6 points)

Median:

A:   44.5%
D:   54.5%

SA:  27%
SD:  44%

With the exception of one low SA number, all numbers have been within MOE, of +/- 3.5%, of the median. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6172 on: September 17, 2010, 08:56:21 am »
« Edited: September 17, 2010, 10:43:23 am by pbrower2a »

I think you colored Washington incorrectly

Corrected. 47-46 became 49-50, or something to that effect. That has some weird statistical effects on the model.

Then I wrote over the post that I corrected with new data.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6173 on: September 17, 2010, 03:05:36 pm »

Indiana Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 14-15, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    21% Strongly approve
    17% Somewhat approve
    11% Somewhat disapprove
    50% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  159
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   61
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call  46
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  66
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   114  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......



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« Reply #6174 on: September 17, 2010, 07:46:47 pm »

Food for thought, a 2012 analysis:


Dark Red: Even in a best case scenario for the GOP, these states would likely still go for Obama. Although by slim margins in some cases.

Medium Red: These states have voted for Obama, but have been seemingly trending Republican in the last few years. The GOP could potentially win any of these with the right candidate.

Red: These states have either voted Republican at least once in the last 4 election cycles, or have been extremely close to voting republican. If Obama is not re-elected, one of these states is likely to go Republican.

Pink: These states voted for Obama, and appear to be trending Democrat. However, they will also be the first to vote for another Republican.

Teal: These states either voted for Obama, and appear to be trending Republican, or voted for McCain and appear to be trending Democrat.

Blue:
These traditionally Republican states could potentially flip to Obama if the economy recovers to an extent.

Medium Blue:
These states are Republican and are only becoming more GOP-friendly. It would take a fool to lose these states.

Dark Blue: Obama would find a hard time pulling off victories in these states even in a 60-40 landslide.
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