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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016026 times)
tmthforu94
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« Reply #6250 on: September 22, 2010, 04:10:28 pm »

I like your maps, Scifiguy. The only thing I would probably argue is that Michigan is probably only leaning Romney,  and Massachusetts is probably Safe Democrat. I'd also recommend moving Utah to Assured Romney, given the "Mormon factor".
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Smid
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« Reply #6251 on: September 22, 2010, 06:46:03 pm »

Anyways, here's mine, I removed Congressional Districts on request and added the Maine poll:

Looks good, thanks!

I think you're making the right call on media polls - and by spelling it out in advance and making a blanket decision about it now, no one can accuse you of bias/hackery later when you don't include one.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6252 on: September 22, 2010, 07:03:43 pm »
« Edited: September 22, 2010, 07:10:34 pm by Mr. Morden »

Aren't the Fox News polls simply Rasmussen polls that have been ordered by Fox?  It's the polling organization that conducts the poll that matters, not the news organization that buys them.  Rejecting all "media polls" is kind of silly.  Half the polls out there are "media polls", when you add up everything done for CNN, Fox News, NBC, ABC, CBS, NYT, USA Today, AP, Reuters, McClatchy, etc.  Should you reject a Gallup poll because they've partnered with USA Today?  USA Today didn't conduct the poll.  They're just buying it.

EDIT: OK, apparently, those Fox polls are by Pulse Opinion Research, which is simply a spinoff of Rasmussen Reports:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/09/14/about_those_fox_news_polls.html

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I don't see why you would reject these polls if you're accepting Rasmussen polls.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6253 on: September 23, 2010, 08:27:27 am »
« Edited: September 23, 2010, 08:28:59 pm by pbrower2a »

Georgia Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 21, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

30% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
 4% Somewhat disapprove
48% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

...something of a surprise here.

Missouri State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 21, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    31% Strongly approve
    15% Somewhat approve
       6% Somewhat disapprove
    47% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure

The two states that Barack Obama barely lost in 2008  look very competitive. Pretty good for him, I would say. Indiana would be interesting again.

North Dakota  State Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted on September 20-21, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

 

  20% Strongly approve
  17% Somewhat approve
  11% Somewhat disapprove
  51% Strongly disapprove

    1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  139
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 110
white                        too close to call  44
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   25
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  36
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   117  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #6254 on: September 23, 2010, 09:18:03 am »

Aren't the Fox News polls simply Rasmussen polls that have been ordered by Fox?

Polling is a two-step business. Someone writes the poll questions, and then someone conducts the polls.

In both Rasmussen and Fox, the same people are conducting the polls, though different people are writing the questions. The "writing the questions" part is actually tricky business, and can dramatically swing the results of a poll one way or another.

That being said, this is just Pbrower being Pbrower. There's absolutely no reason to exclude Fox polls. He's just being his usual, cat drugged self.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6255 on: September 23, 2010, 09:44:19 am »
« Edited: September 23, 2010, 09:46:05 am by Skill and Chance »

I wonder why Obama is doing so anomalously well in the more urbanized Southern states?  He is polling better in GA and FL than CO or NV.  NC approvals are right at the national average in Rasmussen polling.  He is doing as well in GA and FL as he is in NH and ME!  I wonder what VA looks like right now? 

Are GA, NC and FL now friendlier to Obama than PA or CO and NV?   
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #6256 on: September 23, 2010, 09:47:22 am »

I wonder why Obama is doing so anomalously well in the more urbanized Southern states?  He is polling better in GA and FL than CO or NV.

Black people?
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J. J.
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« Reply #6257 on: September 23, 2010, 09:53:39 am »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

All numbers still in range, but at the edge of Obama's "good numbers" range.


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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6258 on: September 23, 2010, 10:00:12 am »

I wonder why Obama is doing so anomalously well in the more urbanized Southern states?  He is polling better in GA and FL than CO or NV.

Black people?

Extrapolating backward suggests he would have carried NC, GA, and FL in 2008 by about the same margin as VA.  This is way off from reality, which suggests an underlying trend toward Obama in the coastal South.  There is also a much more widely discussed trend away from Obama apparent in the Rust Belt and maybe the Rocky Mountain West.  Remember when Montana just barely voted for McCain?  That won't be happening again in 2012.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6259 on: September 23, 2010, 10:42:39 am »

I wonder why Obama is doing so anomalously well in the more urbanized Southern states?  He is polling better in GA and FL than CO or NV.

Black people?

Extrapolating backward suggests he would have carried NC, GA, and FL in 2008 by about the same margin as VA.  This is way off from reality, which suggests an underlying trend toward Obama in the coastal South.  There is also a much more widely discussed trend away from Obama apparent in the Rust Belt and maybe the Rocky Mountain West.  Remember when Montana just barely voted for McCain?  That won't be happening again in 2012.


...add Missouri, which is about half-southern (roughly everything south of the Missouri River except for Greater Kansas City and St. Louis)

It could be that white Southerners are beginning to think that even if they don't like their own black people as potential leaders, President Obama isn't "that sort" of black man. He has not proved soft on crime, he hasn't taken away firearms, he hasn't cut off farm subsidies in very rural states, and he hasn't called for massive handouts of welfare. He has proved about as troublesome to conservative white people on such issues as (ahem!) Clarence Thomas. The "fear factor" has gone.

It could also be that Southerners are far more deferential to the Armed Forces than are others. President Obama has successfully extricated US combat forces from Iraq. That can only help him in the South.

In 2008, he carried all large cities and their suburbs outside the South except perhaps Greater Phoenix and Greater Tucson (favorite son effect, of course, and that will not be an advantage for Republicans in Arizona in 2012).  He did much the same in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. It could be that the Republicans failed to recognize (unlike Obama) that Suburbia has problems other than "high taxes" that Republicans long successfully ran against in Suburbia.  Obama campaigned heavily in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida all electoral season --- and won them.   He campaigned long in Georgia and gave up at a point, and almost won the state.

The Rust Belt, Nevada, and Colorado have big economic problems that have no obvious and fast solutions for the economic distress that the states endure. Do Republicans have solutions just by being Republicans? Rick Snyder has a huge lead in a gubernatorial race in Michigan, a state that Obama won by a margin in the high teens.  Incumbent Senator Russ Feingold is in big trouble in Wisconsin against a Hard Right Republican. 

We shall see.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6260 on: September 23, 2010, 10:50:49 am »

New York (Quinnipiac):

47% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1505

(lolz)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6261 on: September 23, 2010, 10:56:58 am »

Michigan (PPP):

42-54

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_923.pdf
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #6262 on: September 23, 2010, 11:09:05 am »

That poll has scary internals.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6263 on: September 23, 2010, 11:26:27 am »


Ouch!!!
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StatesRights
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« Reply #6264 on: September 23, 2010, 12:22:12 pm »

Bradley effect in full swing with the Obama approval numbers.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6265 on: September 23, 2010, 03:53:16 pm »

This thread is far funnier than most of its participants realise.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6266 on: September 23, 2010, 04:16:15 pm »

Aren't the Fox News polls simply Rasmussen polls that have been ordered by Fox?

Polling is a two-step business. Someone writes the poll questions, and then someone conducts the polls.

In both Rasmussen and Fox, the same people are conducting the polls, though different people are writing the questions. The "writing the questions" part is actually tricky business, and can dramatically swing the results of a poll one way or another.

That being said, this is just Pbrower being Pbrower. There's absolutely no reason to exclude Fox polls. He's just being his usual, cat drugged self.

Has Fox News released the questions they're asking with their polls?
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Penelope
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« Reply #6267 on: September 23, 2010, 04:23:09 pm »
« Edited: September 23, 2010, 04:30:54 pm by Odysseus »

Bradley effect in full swing with the Obama approval numbers.

Excuse me? What in gods name does the Bradley Effect have to do with approval ratings?

Oh, forget it your probably trolling.



Took the PPP poll and pbrower's other , and sorry but the Quinnipiac poll is a bit of a bad sample IMO, but I decided to take it. I'm evening it out to mean that current approval is at around 54%.



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
Q-Quinnipiac
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 108

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 0
Likely Romney - 107
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15


Obama - 270
Romney - 244
Tossup - 24
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #6268 on: September 23, 2010, 07:45:19 pm »

NIce maps Odysseus.  One quibble though.  I would change "Romney" to "Republican" as we have no idea who the nominee will be in 2012.
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Alcon
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« Reply #6269 on: September 23, 2010, 08:09:10 pm »

Bradley effect in full swing with the Obama approval numbers.

Excuse me? What in gods name does the Bradley Effect have to do with approval ratings?

Oh, forget it your probably trolling.

Well, I mean, if the Bradley Effect existed, wouldn't it affect approval ratings as much, if not more, than horserace numbers?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6270 on: September 23, 2010, 08:38:57 pm »

Not that anyone thinks that President Obama has a serious chance of winning Alabama, this is something of a surprise:

Alabama Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 21, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

34% Strongly approve
  7% Somewhat approve
  6% Somewhat disapprove
52% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  139
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 110
white                        too close to call  44
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   25
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  45
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   108  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......


[/quote]
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« Reply #6271 on: September 23, 2010, 08:57:23 pm »

all things considered, 58-41 disapproval in Alabama is really good.
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Penelope
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« Reply #6272 on: September 23, 2010, 09:06:12 pm »

NIce maps Odysseus.  One quibble though.  I would change "Romney" to "Republican" as we have no idea who the nominee will be in 2012.

As I said, I choose the leading candidate based off the polls. That feature will become more useful around January of 2011.
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« Reply #6273 on: September 23, 2010, 09:20:10 pm »
« Edited: September 23, 2010, 10:27:59 pm by The State of Perpetual Anger »


If you think that's accurate I have some beach... well... you get the point.
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Penelope
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« Reply #6274 on: September 23, 2010, 09:33:02 pm »

Added Alabama



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
Q-Quinnipiac
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 108

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 0
Likely Romney - 107
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15


Obama - 270
Romney - 244
Tossup - 24
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