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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016501 times)
tmthforu94
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« Reply #6275 on: September 23, 2010, 09:47:31 pm »

Not that anyone thinks that President Obama has a serious chance of winning Alabama, this is something of a surprise:

Alabama Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 21, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

34% Strongly approve
  7% Somewhat approve
  6% Somewhat disapprove
52% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  139
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 110
white                        too close to call  44
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   25
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  45
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   108  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......


[/quote]
You need to add the New York poll. You can't keep ignoring polls you don't like.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #6276 on: September 23, 2010, 10:10:43 pm »

Guys, just because he posts in this thread all the time doesn't mean you can't put him on ignore.  Trust me, it makes things much easier.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #6277 on: September 23, 2010, 10:59:48 pm »

all things considered, 58-41 disapproval in Alabama is really good.

Very true.  I find this quite interesting.  Possible depolarization across the states?
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Beet
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« Reply #6278 on: September 23, 2010, 11:05:13 pm »

all things considered, 58-41 disapproval in Alabama is really good.

Very true.  I find this quite interesting.  Possible depolarization across the states?

Black people.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6279 on: September 23, 2010, 11:10:01 pm »
« Edited: September 23, 2010, 11:38:53 pm by J. J. »




But it's BRTD's favorite college pollster!!!!  Wink

Actually, Q is generally extremely accurate for NY.  I'd suspect an outlier, but a little erosion in Obama's numbers there wouldn't surprise me.   

Interestingly, there only 6 point gap in the Senate race.
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Beet
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« Reply #6280 on: September 23, 2010, 11:16:53 pm »

Well, his state polls and his national polls certainly aren't matching up.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #6281 on: September 24, 2010, 12:40:37 am »

Well, his state polls and his national polls certainly aren't matching up.
LV screen vs RV screen.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6282 on: September 24, 2010, 12:50:32 am »

Well, his state polls and his national polls certainly aren't matching up.


Rasmussen has shown nationwide approval ratings for the President between 41% to 49% this summer. Such could be statistical noise -- or perhaps the news cycle. The oddly-high polls for Alabama, Georgia, and Missouri today could be the result of a "good" day for the President. If he gets 44% in Texas I will be amazed -- but not so amazed if the Daily Tracking Poll shows 50%.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6283 on: September 24, 2010, 07:16:42 am »
« Edited: September 24, 2010, 11:03:17 am by pbrower2a »

Minnesota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 22, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

28% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
43% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  139
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 110
white                        too close to call  44
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   25
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  45
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   108  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #6284 on: September 24, 2010, 08:42:44 am »

Minnesota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 22, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

28% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
43% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  139
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 110
white                        too close to call  44
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   25
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  45
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   108  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......


[/quote]
[/quote]

Looks like Montana is following the national trend.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6285 on: September 24, 2010, 08:43:31 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

All numbers still in range, but at the edge of Obama's "good numbers" range.

We should know with tomorrow's numbers if these are good sample dropping out or if there has been some improvement.

If there is a big drop, I wouldn't read too much into it.
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« Reply #6286 on: September 24, 2010, 09:29:16 am »

all things considered, 58-41 disapproval in Alabama is really good.

Very true.  I find this quite interesting.  Possible depolarization across the states?

Black people.

Obama only got 39% in 2008 winning like 95% of the black vote, so that's a half-assed explanation.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6287 on: September 24, 2010, 09:30:49 am »
« Edited: September 24, 2010, 12:55:45 pm by pbrower2a »

Speaking of Texas:

Texas Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted on September 22, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

26% Strongly approve
13% Somewhat approve
  6% Somewhat disapprove
55% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

The gubernatorial race is tightening up. Could Texans be tiring of the successor of George W. Bush? Maybe not fast enough.

South Carolina State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 22, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President…do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

    27% Strongly approve
    11% Somewhat approve
      9% Somewhat disapprove
    52% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure

 

2* How would you rate the job Mark Sanford has been doing as Governor…do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

    18% Strongly approve
    37% Somewhat approve
    18% Somewhat disapprove
    25% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure

Don't cry for me, Argentina!

Oklahoma State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 23, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    21% Strongly approve
    10% Somewhat approve
      7% Somewhat disapprove
    60% Strongly disapprove
     2% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  139
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 110
white                        too close to call  44
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   151  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6288 on: September 24, 2010, 11:10:41 am »

all things considered, 58-41 disapproval in Alabama is really good.

Very true.  I find this quite interesting.  Possible depolarization across the states?

Black people.

Obama only got 39% in 2008 winning like 95% of the black vote, so that's a half-assed explanation.



If white Alabamans voted for Obama like white Kentuckians did, Obama would win Alabama and Mississippi in landslides.

Of course, if Packard hadn't merged with Studebaker, then Packard Motor Car Company might be making some very good automobiles.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6289 on: September 24, 2010, 11:32:42 am »

CNN: 42-54

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/09/24/obama.approval.poll/index.html
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #6290 on: September 24, 2010, 11:40:54 am »

Obama only got 39% in 2008 winning like 95% of the black vote, so that's a half-assed explanation.

I dunno, it seems quite likely to me.

Regardless, it never ceases to amaze me that our fave cat drugger can find the silver lining in a poll where 52% strongly disapprove of the president because of his weird "plus 6" fantasy.
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« Reply #6291 on: September 24, 2010, 12:20:33 pm »

So Obama's seen some improvement in the Coastal South (Latest ras has him 51-48 in Florida), while seeing larger than average drops in the Midwest.

Unfortunately for him, that's unlikely to help his re-election chances, given that the GOP can afford to drop 5-7 points in that region if it means getting Obama underwater in Minnesota or Pennsylvania.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6292 on: September 24, 2010, 01:27:12 pm »

Obama only got 39% in 2008 winning like 95% of the black vote, so that's a half-assed explanation.

I dunno, it seems quite likely to me.

Regardless, it never ceases to amaze me that (pbrower2a) can find the silver lining in a poll where 52% strongly disapprove of the president because of his weird "plus 6" fantasy.

Obama lost the state 60-39. With the 58-41 spread in approvals, any chance of Obama winning Alabama is slim.  But look at the difference, and it may suggest some trend that bodes ill for the GOP Presidential nominee in 2012.

Alabama was one of the worst states for Obama in 2008, his 45th-best, and he could win it only in about a 45-state landslide.  About the only way that he wins it in something "less" than a 45-state landslide is if he gets out of Afghanistan with no problems remaining.

My seat-of-the-pants estimate of the likelihood of Obama winning Alabama is about 1%. Higher chance than Utah or Wyoming.

More significantly, it fortifies the idea that a 47% approval rating in Georgia isn't out of the question. Except that Greater Atlanta is far bigger than Greater Birmingham, Alabama and Georgia would seem to have similar demographics. 


 





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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #6293 on: September 24, 2010, 01:57:52 pm »

Obama lost the state 60-39. With the 58-41 spread in approvals, any chance of Obama winning Alabama is slim.  But look at the difference, and it may suggest some trend that bodes ill for the GOP Presidential nominee in 2012.

Alabama was one of the worst states for Obama in 2008, his 45th-best, and he could win it only in about a 45-state landslide.  About the only way that he wins it in something "less" than a 45-state landslide is if he gets out of Afghanistan with no problems remaining.

My seat-of-the-pants estimate of the likelihood of Obama winning Alabama is about 1%. Higher chance than Utah or Wyoming.

More significantly, it fortifies the idea that a 47% approval rating in Georgia isn't out of the question. Except that Greater Atlanta is far bigger than Greater Birmingham, Alabama and Georgia would seem to have similar demographics.

States shift back and forth all the time. If there is any benefit to Obama in Alabama, it is purely a local phenomenon (or one that applies to Alabaman demographics) and not something that's happening nationwide.

If anything, Republicans should be glad that the erosion in their vote is currently happening in safe Republican states. The erosion in the Democrats' vote right now is primarily happening in the midwest (at least for the 2010 elections, which you have to admit are at least somewhat nationalized), and those states were hardly safe for Gore, Kerry, or Obama.

Trends right now favor Republicans. There's no doubt about that. Democrats are unenthused. Half the problem is complacency. The other half of the problem is Obama.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6294 on: September 24, 2010, 02:06:42 pm »

Obama lost the state 60-39. With the 58-41 spread in approvals, any chance of Obama winning Alabama is slim.  But look at the difference, and it may suggest some trend that bodes ill for the GOP Presidential nominee in 2012.

Alabama was one of the worst states for Obama in 2008, his 45th-best, and he could win it only in about a 45-state landslide.  About the only way that he wins it in something "less" than a 45-state landslide is if he gets out of Afghanistan with no problems remaining.

My seat-of-the-pants estimate of the likelihood of Obama winning Alabama is about 1%. Higher chance than Utah or Wyoming.

More significantly, it fortifies the idea that a 47% approval rating in Georgia isn't out of the question. Except that Greater Atlanta is far bigger than Greater Birmingham, Alabama and Georgia would seem to have similar demographics.

States shift back and forth all the time. If there is any benefit to Obama in Alabama, it is purely a local phenomenon (or one that applies to Alabaman demographics) and not something that's happening nationwide.

If anything, Republicans should be glad that the erosion in their vote is currently happening in safe Republican states. The erosion in the Democrats' vote right now is primarily happening in the midwest (at least for the 2010 elections, which you have to admit are at least somewhat nationalized), and those states were hardly safe for Gore, Kerry, or Obama.

Trends right now favor Republicans. There's no doubt about that. Democrats are unenthused. Half the problem is complacency. The other half of the problem is Obama.

Georgia.  It is not a safe GOP win for 2012. Obama won Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, and the GOP nominee cannot lose any one of these states and have a reasonable chance of winning. All four states give the President approval ratings in the mid-to-high 40s -- enough with which to win if there is any significant campaign.
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« Reply #6295 on: September 24, 2010, 02:36:07 pm »

Added Texas.



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
Q-Quinnipiac
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 108

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 0
Likely Romney - 107
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15


Obama - 270
Romney - 244
Tossup - 24
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« Reply #6296 on: September 24, 2010, 02:41:12 pm »

Obama lost the state 60-39. With the 58-41 spread in approvals, any chance of Obama winning Alabama is slim.  But look at the difference, and it may suggest some trend that bodes ill for the GOP Presidential nominee in 2012.

Alabama was one of the worst states for Obama in 2008, his 45th-best, and he could win it only in about a 45-state landslide.  About the only way that he wins it in something "less" than a 45-state landslide is if he gets out of Afghanistan with no problems remaining.

My seat-of-the-pants estimate of the likelihood of Obama winning Alabama is about 1%. Higher chance than Utah or Wyoming.

More significantly, it fortifies the idea that a 47% approval rating in Georgia isn't out of the question. Except that Greater Atlanta is far bigger than Greater Birmingham, Alabama and Georgia would seem to have similar demographics.

States shift back and forth all the time. If there is any benefit to Obama in Alabama, it is purely a local phenomenon (or one that applies to Alabaman demographics) and not something that's happening nationwide.

If anything, Republicans should be glad that the erosion in their vote is currently happening in safe Republican states. The erosion in the Democrats' vote right now is primarily happening in the midwest (at least for the 2010 elections, which you have to admit are at least somewhat nationalized), and those states were hardly safe for Gore, Kerry, or Obama.

Trends right now favor Republicans. There's no doubt about that. Democrats are unenthused. Half the problem is complacency. The other half of the problem is Obama.

If we assume current trends hold, I don't think its a net gain for either party.  You would have OH moving decisively into the GOP column and FL moving into the Democratic column.  You can't seriously call NC and FL safe Republican states when Obama just won them two years ago.  States like MI and WI would be toss-ups, but so would NC and GA.  We haven't had a poll there in ages, but I would be shocked if Obama doesn't have above average approval in VA right now given NC and GA. 

The net result is about 50 electoral votes coming into play for the GOP in the midwest and about 50 additional ones coming into play for the Dems in the Southeast (although not Alabama unless you are a hack).  If he can't make it back to 50/50 approval, he will be struggling regardless, but these trends don't really help or hurt Obama in a close election.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6297 on: September 24, 2010, 04:35:21 pm »

The net would be a 60-70 EV gain from an Northeast, Heartland R shift, and FL VA shift to the Obama.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6298 on: September 24, 2010, 05:22:32 pm »

The net would be a 60-70 EV gain from an Northeast, Heartland R shift, and FL VA shift to the Obama.

But there is no net shift in the Northeast whatsoever, unless you count PA as the NE.  The midwestern shift toward the GOP mainly entails OH, PA, IA, and IN (which is now long gone save for Morning in America II).  In the SE, FL, VA, NC, and GA are shifting toward Obama.  The president still has above average approval in MN, MI, and WI.  There would be no big margins, but these 3 are still his to lose in a close race.

There is an elephant in the living room with all of these approval polls: who is being polled?  The vast majority of these state polls reflect the opinions of 2010 likely voters, not 2012 likely voters.  Turnout will be much higher in a presidential year, so a midterm electorate is not a good model for the 2012 electorate.  In the recent past, higher turnout has always benefited Democrats over Republicans.  Maybe this isn't the case anymore, after all CNN did just report a 42-54 sample among all adults, but we need more evidence before anyone can set up a meaningful 2012 likely voter model.
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Zarn
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« Reply #6299 on: September 24, 2010, 06:30:24 pm »

PA is in the Northeast.

NY, NJ, and PA are the Mid-Atlantic. Coupled with New England, you get the Northeast.

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