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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016164 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #6300 on: September 25, 2010, 01:54:50 am »

CA (SUSA): 55-39

KS (SUSA): 38-59

OR (SUSA): 47-50

OH (SUSA): 40-56

WA (SUSA): 40-56 (Well, I have a hard time believing there´s a 35R-30D split among WA adults)

NV (POS): 45-52
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Dgov
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« Reply #6301 on: September 25, 2010, 03:26:19 am »

CA (SUSA): 55-39

KS (SUSA): 38-59

OR (SUSA): 47-50

OH (SUSA): 40-56

WA (SUSA): 40-56 (Well, I have a hard time believing there´s a 35R-30D split among WA adults)

NV (POS): 45-52

I have a harder time believing Obama is doing better in Greater LA than in the Bay Area, that men approve of Obama 9 points more than women do in California as well.

Though SUSA's cross-tabs are getting more realistic in general.  Obama does a couple of points better with the under-34s than his statewide average, and the racial demographics are starting to conform better with actual vote totals.

Oh, and I think the WA results are supposed to be 38D-35R-27I, as their current values for D-R-I add to 92% (and their ideological values add to only 88%).  Using those numbers, his approval is about 43-52.  This poll has him at 27% with WA independent adults, which is hard to recover from by any weighting.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6302 on: September 25, 2010, 11:14:09 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

Probably a good Obama sample dropped out.

One good thing for Obama is that his Strongly Disapprove numbers seem to be trending down from two weeks ago.  We should be watching to see if there is a big jump due to a sample issue, however.  My guess is that those numbers are really down.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6303 on: September 26, 2010, 11:20:26 am »
« Edited: September 26, 2010, 11:39:23 am by pbrower2a »

With apologies to J.J., who usually gets to this one first:

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +2.

Disapprove 52%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

I don't know what sort of  sample dropped out.

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It could be the news cycle. It could also be that people are finding President Obama less objectionable even if they still disapprove. Should the economy improve, then President Obama is unstoppable.

It's easier to turn "slightly disapprove" into "slightly approve" or even non-voters (the first having about twice the effect of the second) than to move "strongly disapprove" anything other than "slightly disapprove, but still voting".

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6304 on: September 26, 2010, 11:24:50 am »

The correct numbers are 47% approve, 52% disapprove.  Strongly Approve is now at 28%, not 27%, and strongly Disapprove has fallen to 41%.

This looks like real upward movement over the past few days.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6305 on: September 26, 2010, 11:42:08 am »

The correct numbers are 47% approve, 52% disapprove.  Strongly Approve is now at 28%, not 27%, and strongly Disapprove has fallen to 41%.

This looks like real upward movement over the past few days.

Typo corrected!

Those who have made much of the gap between "Strongly disapprove" and "Strongly approve" can't deny this one. 

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« Reply #6306 on: September 26, 2010, 11:47:22 am »

What's to blame for this bump? BHO's more active campaigning of late?
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Dgov
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« Reply #6307 on: September 26, 2010, 11:49:57 am »

Typo corrected!

Those who have made much of the gap between "Strongly disapprove" and "Strongly approve" can't deny this one. 

There's not really much of an improvement.  Obama's been at these sort of numbers for the last year or so, though the "Movement" is more him rising back towards his negative-teens average rather than the lower numbers of August.

Probably the GZ Mosque issue has blown over.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6308 on: September 26, 2010, 11:55:22 am »

South Carolina (Ras):

38-61

If there is some movement in the South East, South Carolina isn't feeling it.  Though admittedly it's hard for Obama to get good approvals in a state that gives Jim DeMint a 67% approval (which might just be the highest for any sitting Republican Senator right now), and where 71% of Voters want to repeal Obamacare.

Though I'm curious as to who are the roughly 10% of Likely voters that both approve of Obama and want to repeal his signature piece of legislation.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6309 on: September 26, 2010, 11:57:57 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +2.

Disapprove 52%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

The disapprove numbers are really down.  That Strongly Disapprove number is now running very low, compared to recent weeks.  It is still within range, but it is lowest it has been in about three weeks.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6310 on: September 26, 2010, 12:12:39 pm »

South Carolina (Ras):

38-61

If there is some movement in the South East, South Carolina isn't feeling it.  Though admittedly it's hard for Obama to get good approvals in a state that gives Jim DeMint a 67% approval (which might just be the highest for any sitting Republican Senator right now), and where 71% of Voters want to repeal Obamacare.

Though I'm curious as to who are the roughly 10% of Likely voters that both approve of Obama and want to repeal his signature piece of legislation.

Probably lefties who want single payer.  Polls that ask voters whether they oppose health care reform from the right or the left consistently get about 10% of voters opposing it because it doesn't do enough.

There was a poll last week that got an even more provocative result: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/120915-poll-many-voters-think-health-reform-too-conservative
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6311 on: September 26, 2010, 01:22:55 pm »

Typo corrected!

Those who have made much of the gap between "Strongly disapprove" and "Strongly approve" can't deny this one. 

There's not really much of an improvement.  Obama's been at these sort of numbers for the last year or so, though the "Movement" is more him rising back towards his negative-teens average rather than the lower numbers of August.

Probably the GZ Mosque issue has blown over.

I think it is this combined with the fact that he's been out there in campaign mode for the Democrats... which in all honestly is his strength. 
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6312 on: September 26, 2010, 02:05:24 pm »

Gallup: 44/49
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6313 on: September 26, 2010, 02:08:54 pm »

CNN: 42/56
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Dgov
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« Reply #6314 on: September 26, 2010, 05:30:46 pm »


Probably lefties who want single payer.  Polls that ask voters whether they oppose health care reform from the right or the left consistently get about 10% of voters opposing it because it doesn't do enough.

There was a poll last week that got an even more provocative result: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/120915-poll-many-voters-think-health-reform-too-conservative


Doesn't seem likely.  Every other poll I've seen has given the Republicans the edge on health-care issues, and I do not seriously buy that 40% of Americans disapprove of Obamacare because they don't think it went far enough.  That kind of sentiment would have sprung up more often and earlier this year while the legislation was still being debated.

On top of that, I don't think anyone who believes that Obamacare is too Conservative a reform wants to actually repeal it so much as add onto it whatever other reforms they want.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6315 on: September 26, 2010, 07:28:39 pm »


Gallup is strange. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #6316 on: September 27, 2010, 09:05:03 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

Same as on 8/31/10.  There was a decline in Obama's numbers in mid September, but he appears to have made up some ground.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #6317 on: September 27, 2010, 12:00:07 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

Same as on 8/31/10.  There was a decline in Obama's numbers in mid September, but he appears to have made up some ground.

Drifting towards where Clinton was in 1994. Clinton was around 44% in early September and drifted back towards 48% or so. Probably saved Feinstein and Lautenberg.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6318 on: September 27, 2010, 01:04:10 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

Same as on 8/31/10.  There was a decline in Obama's numbers in mid September, but he appears to have made up some ground.

Drifting towards where Clinton was in 1994. Clinton was around 44% in early September and drifted back towards 48% or so. Probably saved Feinstein and Lautenberg.

Clinton's nadir was in 1993, rebounded to well above 50%, and then started a slump.  He was running slightly ahead of Obama in the Spring of 1994.  Also, his, negatives were much lower.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm
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Dgov
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« Reply #6319 on: September 27, 2010, 01:16:54 pm »

Gallup put up it's weekly average: 44-48

Notable numbers include Obama slumping below Majority approval with Hispanics for the first time ever (though only to 49%), and a pretty clean 3-step age gap, with under-30s giving him 52% Approval, 30-65 year olds giving him about 44%, and the over-65 year olds giving him 36%.  The Gender gap is also reduced, with Men giving him 43% and Women giving him 45%.

He's at 51% in the East, 44% in the Midwest and West, and 39% in the South.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6320 on: September 27, 2010, 04:28:32 pm »

This is quite likely my last report with this sort of map. I have relied largely upon Rasmussen polls for statewide approval ratings, and Rasmussen has now put the statewide approvals for President on a premium service. I have better uses for my money, and with some important races and other things to do, I have better use for my time. That's not to say that I won't be visiting.   




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  129
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  81
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 108
white                        too close to call  48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   151  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

Obama                                           311
Generic Republican                        166
Your guess is as good as mine        48


It will either look like Truman 1948 or Obama 2008 because the zone between 311 electoral votes and 359 electoral votes is a blank zone. Nobody has won between 57.1%  (Truman 1948) and 66.5% (Taft 1908) of the electoral vote; someone likely to project to winning between 34% and 42% of the electoral vote is likely to take chances that bring the race far closer or cause a bigger loss. 

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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #6321 on: September 27, 2010, 04:35:25 pm »

Rasmussen has now put the statewide approvals for President on a premium service.
Wow, that sucks. Sad
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Mitt Romney's Hair
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« Reply #6322 on: September 27, 2010, 06:28:17 pm »

Rasmussen has now put the statewide approvals for President on a premium service.
Wow, that sucks. Sad

That's fine with me. No offense, but maps with several colors are really difficult to look at.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6323 on: September 27, 2010, 06:35:06 pm »

Btw, I'm going to probably do my 2-month joinup for premium Rasmussen that I also did in 2008. 

But I'm not sharing with pbrower - he's started ignoring most non-Rasmussen polls because they don't show the numbers remotely close to what he wants.  So, anything that gets him off this site is for the better.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #6324 on: September 27, 2010, 06:37:37 pm »

Rasmussen has now put the statewide approvals for President on a premium service.
Wow, that sucks. Sad

That's fine with me. No offense, but maps with several colors are really difficult to look at.
Wasn't talking about the maps, I couldn't care less about those. I was more talking about Rass not showing the Obama state popularity to non-premium members. Tongue
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