Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 13, 2019, 09:20:49 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (Primary) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 249 250 251 252 253 [254] 255 256 257 258 259 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1014985 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,655


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6325 on: September 27, 2010, 07:14:32 pm »

Btw, if anyone wants for me to share Rasmussen numbers, I'll happily do so privately.

Race-wise, it also looks to me like his national poll is weighted pretty close to 2008 exit polls, though his black numbers look closer to overall % of population (i.e. 13%, as opposed to 14%), and could be closer to 12%.
Logged
Capitan Zapp Brannigan
Addicted to Politics
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,088


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6326 on: September 28, 2010, 08:56:48 am »

Obama reached 50% approval in Rasmussen today for the first time in a while. 50% approve, 49% disapprove.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6327 on: September 28, 2010, 09:01:14 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +2.

Disapprove 49%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

There may be a bad sample moving through the system, but there has definitely a shift.  These are the best Obama numbers since mid April 2010.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,844
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6328 on: September 28, 2010, 09:12:03 am »

Huh? Wow.

I'm guessing he'll take a plunge tomorrow though.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,420
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6329 on: September 28, 2010, 09:16:11 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +2.

Disapprove 49%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

There may be a bad sample moving through the system, but there has definitely a shift.  These are the best Obama numbers since mid April 2010.

News cycle?

What matters most now is how it influences Senatorial and Congressional elections. At 50% approval, the President is far more popular than almost anyone else in political life on a national basis.
Logged
Citizen (The) Doctor
ArchangelZero
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,181
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6330 on: September 28, 2010, 09:16:29 am »
« Edited: September 28, 2010, 05:59:39 pm by Pacific Lt. Gov The Doctor »

Huh? Wow.

I'm guessing he'll take a plunge tomorrow though.

Any other result will be extremely surprising.
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,614
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6331 on: September 28, 2010, 09:37:28 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +2.

Disapprove 49%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

There may be a bad sample moving through the system, but there has definitely a shift.  These are the best Obama numbers since mid April 2010.

These are 2010 likely voters, right?

50/50 approval of the incumbent president does not fit very well with the kind of losses expected for the Dems this fall.  This is almost certainly an outlier when Obama's preferred candidate is barely leading in Connecticut of all places.

If Obama really has recovered to 50/50 and it holds through October, Dems would narrowly hold the House and probably wouldn't lose more than 4 in the Senate.
Logged
HokeyDood
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,720
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6332 on: September 28, 2010, 11:24:02 am »

His numbers have been remarkably consistent since early this year.  I wonder why now of all times he would be seeing a bit of a boost when there still seems to be an anti-incumbent fervor out there. 

Funny how Gallup always gave him better numbers before and now that Rasmussen has him back above 50% Gallup is showing him at 44%.

 
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,420
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6333 on: September 28, 2010, 11:32:29 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +2.

Disapprove 49%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

There may be a bad sample moving through the system, but there has definitely a shift.  These are the best Obama numbers since mid April 2010.

These are 2010 likely voters, right?

50/50 approval of the incumbent president does not fit very well with the kind of losses expected for the Dems this fall.  This is almost certainly an outlier when Obama's preferred candidate is barely leading in Connecticut of all places.

If Obama really has recovered to 50/50 and it holds through October, Dems would narrowly hold the House and probably wouldn't lose more than 4 in the Senate.

If it isn't an outlier, then the recent GOP surge in House and Senate polls could collapse. Some of the GOP nominees are beginning to look extreme. People may be beginning to see through groups that have been backing Hard Right candidates.

It's also possible that President Obama is getting credit for some things that have gone well. Do we remember all the talk of a double-dip recession? Maybe the policies promoted by the GOP have begun to look like the sorts that would make one a certainty. There have been no diplomatic fiascos, and American combat troops are out of Iraq. There has been no scandal. Maybe we have no full recovery, but the President has some innovative and reasonable -- and hardly radical -- solutions.

The reverse-wave effect may have peaked too early. When Republicans started talking about privatizing Social Security and making tax cuts for the super-rich the first priority of politics, they may have gone too far. The purges of Bob Bennett, Lisa Murkowski, and Mike Castle might not look so good to people just to the right of center. Images of the President dressed up like a witch doctor or the President and First Lady as a pimp and a prostitute offend the sensibilities of people who voted for the President.

Democrats have been running scared in this election -- and they should. They may be finding the counterattack that works.

Extremists fare badly among the moderates who decide most American elections. Nothing indicates that the American electorate of 2010 is more right-wing than that of 2006. 2008? Fewer people vote in midterm elections -- but should the Democrats get out anything like the 2008 or even 2006 electorate, then the GOP may be stuck with some hollow victories.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,420
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6334 on: September 28, 2010, 11:36:42 am »

His numbers have been remarkably consistent since early this year.  I wonder why now of all times he would be seeing a bit of a boost when there still seems to be an anti-incumbent fervor out there. 

Funny how Gallup always gave him better numbers before and now that Rasmussen has him back above 50% Gallup is showing him at 44%.

 

Maybe that fervor is waning.  Match Gallup for corroboration or refutation.

Too bad Rasmussen doesn't show statewide polls except on a premium service.

Here is a fairly good source for data on Senatorial races:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/Senate/Maps/Sep25-s.html#3
Logged
Mitt Romney's Hair
GOP_Represent
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 649


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6335 on: September 28, 2010, 12:47:21 pm »

His numbers have been remarkably consistent since early this year.  I wonder why now of all times he would be seeing a bit of a boost when there still seems to be an anti-incumbent fervor out there.  

Funny how Gallup always gave him better numbers before and now that Rasmussen has him back above 50% Gallup is showing him at 44%.

 

Maybe that fervor is waning.  Match Gallup for corroboration or refutation.

Too bad Rasmussen doesn't show statewide polls except on a premium service.

Here is a fairly good source for data on Senatorial races:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/Senate/Maps/Sep25-s.html#3

Keeping grasping at those straws....

Nothing, and I mean nothing, has happened to warrant any rebound for Obama. Ras. is just an outlire  at the moment.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6336 on: September 28, 2010, 02:19:28 pm »

His numbers have been remarkably consistent since early this year.  I wonder why now of all times he would be seeing a bit of a boost when there still seems to be an anti-incumbent fervor out there.  

Funny how Gallup always gave him better numbers before and now that Rasmussen has him back above 50% Gallup is showing him at 44%.

 

Maybe that fervor is waning.  Match Gallup for corroboration or refutation.

Too bad Rasmussen doesn't show statewide polls except on a premium service.

Here is a fairly good source for data on Senatorial races:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/Senate/Maps/Sep25-s.html#3

Keeping grasping at those straws....

Nothing, and I mean nothing, has happened to warrant any rebound for Obama. Ras. is just an outlire  at the moment.

I'm going to go back through the thread and hear your explanation for a low Obama number being perfectly rational.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6337 on: September 28, 2010, 03:06:33 pm »

Huh? Wow.

I'm guessing he'll take a plunge tomorrow though.

Well, I think that there was some legitimate movement toward Obama, as he was certainly off his early September lows.  However, this particular number looks like a good Obama sample is moving through the system.

I expect a drop in the next three days, maybe as much as 6 points in Approve numbers.  That would still mark a longer term improvement.

In terms of a "collapse" in Republican numbers overall, I'd doubt it.  Obama is doing about as well as Clinton was in 1994. Clinton, however had already had a deeper trough, and recovered.  If this is Obama's recovery it is, at best, an anemic one.
Logged
Poundingtherock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 917
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6338 on: September 28, 2010, 03:49:38 pm »

Gallup: 45/49

Watch him plunge tomorrow on Rasmussen and such a plunge will render this discussion moot.

Ras is sucking in Pbrower just to break his heart.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6339 on: September 28, 2010, 03:56:10 pm »

Gallup: 45/49

Watch him plunge tomorrow on Rasmussen and such a plunge will render this discussion moot.

Ras is sucking in Pbrower just to break his heart.

There was improvement that cannot be attributed to a single skewed good sample.  Obama has at least stemmed the flood temporarily. 
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,655


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6340 on: September 28, 2010, 04:22:56 pm »

The improvement in Obama's numbers in Rasmussen can be pretty much traced to movement among the Other (racial) category and Other (voting) category (though less so), fwiw.  Whites and blacks (GOP and Dems) remain unchanged from August.

The state numbers show very little movement - with a month of these fresh state polls, Obama's number for Rasmussen in my average (which is probably slightly Dem leaning) will move from 47% to 48% (and 47 might ought to be 46, fwiw).
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6341 on: September 28, 2010, 04:32:03 pm »

The improvement in Obama's numbers in Rasmussen can be pretty much traced to movement among the Other (racial) category and Other (voting) category (though less so), fwiw.  Whites and blacks (GOP and Dems) remain unchanged from August.

The state numbers show very little movement - with a month of these fresh state polls, Obama's number for Rasmussen in my average (which is probably slightly Dem leaning) will move from 47% to 48% (and 47 might ought to be 46, fwiw).

I've been looking at the range, and 50% Approve is out of range.  It had a range of 41-48 since August 1, 2010.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,655


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6342 on: September 28, 2010, 04:33:19 pm »

The improvement in Obama's numbers in Rasmussen can be pretty much traced to movement among the Other (racial) category and Other (voting) category (though less so), fwiw.  Whites and blacks (GOP and Dems) remain unchanged from August.

The state numbers show very little movement - with a month of these fresh state polls, Obama's number for Rasmussen in my average (which is probably slightly Dem leaning) will move from 47% to 48% (and 47 might ought to be 46, fwiw).

I've been looking at the range, and 50% Approve is out of range.  It had a range of 41-48 since August 1, 2010.

You interpret the range however you want - I'm just telling you what the internals say.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6343 on: September 28, 2010, 04:49:15 pm »

The improvement in Obama's numbers in Rasmussen can be pretty much traced to movement among the Other (racial) category and Other (voting) category (though less so), fwiw.  Whites and blacks (GOP and Dems) remain unchanged from August.

The state numbers show very little movement - with a month of these fresh state polls, Obama's number for Rasmussen in my average (which is probably slightly Dem leaning) will move from 47% to 48% (and 47 might ought to be 46, fwiw).

I've been looking at the range, and 50% Approve is out of range.  It had a range of 41-48 since August 1, 2010.

You interpret the range however you want - I'm just telling you what the internals say.

And I'm telling you what the range has been.  You can define Obama's approval numbers on Rasmussen as being between 41-48 from August 1 to September 27, 2010, with a median point of 44.5%.  You can define Obama's disapproval numbers on Rasmussen as being between 51-58 from August 1 to September 27, 2010, with a median point of 54.5%  In other words, all numbers have been within the MOE of the median from August 1 to September 27, 2010.

You can't say that about 9/28/10.

A really bad sample?  Maybe, but I kind of doubt it.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,420
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6344 on: September 28, 2010, 05:12:37 pm »

The improvement in Obama's numbers in Rasmussen can be pretty much traced to movement among the Other (racial) category and Other (voting) category (though less so), fwiw.  Whites and blacks (GOP and Dems) remain unchanged from August.

The state numbers show very little movement - with a month of these fresh state polls, Obama's number for Rasmussen in my average (which is probably slightly Dem leaning) will move from 47% to 48% (and 47 might ought to be 46, fwiw).

I've been looking at the range, and 50% Approve is out of range.  It had a range of 41-48 since August 1, 2010.

You interpret the range however you want - I'm just telling you what the internals say.

"Others" probably means Hispanics and to a lesser extent Asians. They were critical to the 2008 election, and it could be that GOP media and the Tea Party Movement have lost them again. Those voters are more significant than they used to be.

Statewide polls for Colorado and Nevada would be interesting... except that we just aren't getting those anymore.
Logged
Dgov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6345 on: September 28, 2010, 05:45:14 pm »

PPP Illinois: Obama 44-49

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-in-illinois.html

If Obama is actually at 50% Nationwide and is only at 44% in Illinois, he's riding on a completely different coalition than he had in 2008.  Though this certainly goes along with the idea that the Midwest is the region of the country that is turning against Obama the most.

The sample here also voted for Obama by 15 Points when he won statewide by 25, which suggests that the enthusiasm gap exists and is very relevant, but also that Obama has lost a considerable number of his 2008 voters' support.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,530
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6346 on: September 28, 2010, 05:50:11 pm »

Added Illinois - no effect on 2012 Prediction.



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
Q-Quinnipiac
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 108

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 0
Likely Romney - 107
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15


Obama - 270
Romney - 244
Tossup - 24
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,420
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6347 on: September 29, 2010, 12:02:05 am »

Well, Rasmussen slipped out an approval rating for Iowa, so I can make a slight and inconsequential change.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  129
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  81
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 108
white                        too close to call  48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   151  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......


One letter, one state.
Logged
Ronnie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,862
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6348 on: September 29, 2010, 12:49:12 am »

The sky is falling!  Rasmussen is giving Obama a positive approval rating, while Gallup is giving him a negative one.  That's veeeeery weird.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,844
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6349 on: September 29, 2010, 12:56:51 am »


Whoah. I don't buy that one for a minute.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 249 250 251 252 253 [254] 255 256 257 258 259 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC