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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016014 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #6350 on: September 29, 2010, 08:20:16 am »


PPP has had a string of very pro-Republican polls in the past week, in a number of states.  I'm wondering is there is weighting problem?
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J. J.
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« Reply #6351 on: September 29, 2010, 08:42:21 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -4.

Disapprove 52%, +3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

A pro-Obama sample dropped, but Obama's positive numbers are still above the median (from before this sample).
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6352 on: September 29, 2010, 09:31:55 am »

To whet some partial appetites, Colorado is 43% approve, 55% disapprove. Tongue
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Mitt Romney's Hair
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« Reply #6353 on: September 29, 2010, 11:08:29 am »

46% - Rass. Told you yesterday was an outlier. Normal service resumed.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #6354 on: September 29, 2010, 02:50:45 pm »

PPP has had a string of very pro-Republican polls in the past week, in a number of states.  I'm wondering is there is weighting problem?

...but with whom?
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J. J.
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« Reply #6355 on: September 29, 2010, 06:39:02 pm »

PPP has had a string of very pro-Republican polls in the past week, in a number of states.  I'm wondering is there is weighting problem?

...but with whom?

That was me who said it.

Likely voters?
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Alcon
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« Reply #6356 on: September 29, 2010, 06:53:01 pm »

You interpret the range however you want - I'm just telling you what the internals say.

And I'm telling you what the range has been.

I love you both.  I'm just telling you that.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6357 on: September 29, 2010, 08:15:21 pm »

I love how Rasmussen broke Pbrower's heart.  Way to go Ras!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6358 on: September 30, 2010, 08:09:58 am »

I love how Rasmussen broke Pbrower's heart.  Way to go Ras!

Real heartbreak would come from the Tea Party Movement achieving power in America and establishing a perverse syncretism of absolute plutocracy with Christian Protestant fundamentalism.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6359 on: September 30, 2010, 08:30:27 am »

I love how Rasmussen broke Pbrower's heart.  Way to go Ras!

Real heartbreak would come from the Tea Party Movement achieving power in America and establishing a perverse syncretism of absolute plutocracy with Christian Protestant fundamentalism.

Looking at socialist authoritarian alternative we have with Obama, we can only hope so.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6360 on: September 30, 2010, 08:40:09 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, +3.

The Strongly Approve number has held for three days.  While the rest of the other numbers are down from their past highs, they are still well off their lows.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #6361 on: September 30, 2010, 09:13:09 am »

lol, those numbers reverted back fast.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6362 on: September 30, 2010, 09:28:00 am »


Usually when you have major national figures like Obama, approval ratings don't change much without obvious milestones.  Obama's been at the post-HC rut since late April, and not much politically has changed since then.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6363 on: September 30, 2010, 11:28:46 am »

I love how Rasmussen broke Pbrower's heart.  Way to go Ras!

Real heartbreak would come from the Tea Party Movement achieving power in America and establishing a perverse syncretism of absolute plutocracy with Christian Protestant fundamentalism.

Looking at socialist authoritarian alternative we have with Obama, we can only hope so.

Can we settle down, children?  There will be no theocracy with the Tea Party or socialist authoritarianism with Obama.  Do either of you know ANYTHING about the United States?  The differences between the two parties in America in the grand scheme of things is minimal at best.  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6364 on: September 30, 2010, 01:17:36 pm »
« Edited: September 30, 2010, 02:04:03 pm by pbrower2a »

I love how Rasmussen broke Pbrower's heart.  Way to go Ras!

Real heartbreak would come from the Tea Party Movement achieving power in America and establishing a perverse syncretism of absolute plutocracy with Christian Protestant fundamentalism.

Looking at socialist authoritarian alternative we have with Obama, we can only hope so.

Can we settle down, children?  There will be no theocracy with the Tea Party or socialist authoritarianism with Obama.  Do either of you know ANYTHING about the United States?  The differences between the two parties in America in the grand scheme of things is minimal at best.  

Barack Obama presides over the biggest government in American history, at least from the standpoint of government ownership and operation of businesses. I believe that he would love to sell off the socialist sector of the US economy, ideally for profit that would manifest itself in a pay-off of much of the National Debt. It isn't he who started the process; it began when Dubya, supposedly the most pro-business President in a long time, signed off on it on behalf of the Secretary of the Treasury, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission,  and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. 

The Democratic and Republican Parties used to be similar, as shown when the Democrats had Jacob Javits and the Republicans had John Stennis. The big difference was what agricultural interests they represented -- southern agricultural interests and Big Labor  being largely Democratic and northern agricultural interests and non-agricultural business of all kinds decidedly Republican, with Big Business largely Republican. They have gone much more ideological, clearly Left and Right.

National health care is hardly socialist if just about every country has it. Every country that I know of has government ownership and operation of schools, roads other than expressways, and the postal system. America remains one of the least socialistic countries in the world.

I look at the Tea Party Movement and I see something uncharacteristic of the sorts of conservatives who used to predominate in the Republican Party -- crass demagoguery, including contempt for educated policy-making. I also notice the deep=pockets funding from the usual supporters of right-wing causes.  Ordinarily such indicates a fascist cause -- radical populism in the ultimate service of entrenched elites.

I used to believe that the only fascists in America were the people who burn crosses or strut around in brown or black shirts while shouting "White Power!" -- pathetic relics of discredited causes as impotent as they are unpopular. I now believe otherwise. Every country has some characteristics within its culture amenable to some sort of fascism perfectly fitting the culture. Just as Italian fascists would adopt a mythologized view of the Roman Empire that the Japanese might find tolerable only at a safe distance and Japanese fascists would attempt to revive the ethos of the samurai which has no relevance to the culture of any other culture, American fascists would reach into the American past to find cultural ephemera fit to the movement. The American Revolution led by people whose core beliefs now seem the antithesis of fascism?  Such is the source of the accoutrements of the Tea Party Movement.

Demagoguery is dangerous whether of the Left or Right.     
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J. J.
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« Reply #6365 on: September 30, 2010, 01:34:53 pm »

I love how Rasmussen broke Pbrower's heart.  Way to go Ras!

Real heartbreak would come from the Tea Party Movement achieving power in America and establishing a perverse syncretism of absolute plutocracy with Christian Protestant fundamentalism.

Looking at socialist authoritarian alternative we have with Obama, we can only hope so.

Can we settle down, children?  There will be no theocracy with the Tea Party or socialist authoritarianism with Obama.  Do either of you know ANYTHING about the United States?  The differences between the two parties in America in the grand scheme of things is minimal at best.  

Well, I think if you going to start it, you should expect it in return.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6366 on: September 30, 2010, 01:37:50 pm »


They have not "reverted" however.  They are still well of Obama's lows for the last two months.  Strongly Approve is actually still above the median.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6367 on: September 30, 2010, 02:23:45 pm »

I love how Rasmussen broke Pbrower's heart.  Way to go Ras!

Real heartbreak would come from the Tea Party Movement achieving power in America and establishing a perverse syncretism of absolute plutocracy with Christian Protestant fundamentalism.

Looking at socialist authoritarian alternative we have with Obama, we can only hope so.

Can we settle down, children?  There will be no theocracy with the Tea Party or socialist authoritarianism with Obama.  Do either of you know ANYTHING about the United States?  The differences between the two parties in America in the grand scheme of things is minimal at best.  

Barack Obama presides over the biggest government in American history, at least from the standpoint of government ownership and operation of businesses. I believe that he would love to sell off the socialist sector of the US economy, ideally for profit that would manifest itself in a pay-off of much of the National Debt. It isn't he who started the process; it began when Dubya, supposedly the most pro-business President in a long time, signed off on it on behalf of the Secretary of the Treasury, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission,  and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. 

The Democratic and Republican Parties used to be similar, as shown when the Democrats had Jacob Javits and the Republicans had John Stennis. The big difference was what agricultural interests they represented -- southern agricultural interests and Big Labor  being largely Democratic and northern agricultural interests and non-agricultural business of all kinds decidedly Republican, with Big Business largely Republican. They have gone much more ideological, clearly Left and Right.

National health care is hardly socialist if just about every country has it. Every country that I know of has government ownership and operation of schools, roads other than expressways, and the postal system. America remains one of the least socialistic countries in the world.

I look at the Tea Party Movement and I see something uncharacteristic of the sorts of conservatives who used to predominate in the Republican Party -- crass demagoguery, including contempt for educated policy-making. I also notice the deep=pockets funding from the usual supporters of right-wing causes.  Ordinarily such indicates a fascist cause -- radical populism in the ultimate service of entrenched elites.

I used to believe that the only fascists in America were the people who burn crosses or strut around in brown or black shirts while shouting "White Power!" -- pathetic relics of discredited causes as impotent as they are unpopular. I now believe otherwise. Every country has some characteristics within its culture amenable to some sort of fascism perfectly fitting the culture. Just as Italian fascists would adopt a mythologized view of the Roman Empire that the Japanese might find tolerable only at a safe distance and Japanese fascists would attempt to revive the ethos of the samurai which has no relevance to the culture of any other culture, American fascists would reach into the American past to find cultural ephemera fit to the movement. The American Revolution led by people whose core beliefs now seem the antithesis of fascism?  Such is the source of the accoutrements of the Tea Party Movement.

Demagoguery is dangerous whether of the Left or Right.     

I can't stand the Tea Partiers either but the most radical of their positions will never take hold in the United States.  You should focus more on what would actually happen should the Tea Party candidates win rather than the "ideal" America that is only ever going to be realized in Teabaggers' dreams.  These dozens of millions of people who rely on Social Security and Medicare are not going to vote for its destruction and would throw anyone out of office who tried to implement such a policy.  Christian theology will not define American policy because even most Christians in the United States are against that. 

Let's fight the tangible battles.  I hate the Tea Party/right wing because of the insane anti-intellectualism that has become to define them.  THAT'S tangible.  THAT I can see happening right now.  I'll start there before I rally against Joe Miller's Dream America. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6368 on: September 30, 2010, 03:21:41 pm »

Obama Approval in Minnesota (HHH/MPR):

48% Approve
48% Disapprove

...

47% Obama
40% Romney

49% Obama
40% Pawlenty

54% Obama
34% Bachmann

56% Obama
34% Palin

A fair expression of the idea that an incumbent Governor or Senator gains about 6% in vote share from his approval as of six months before the election. Such probably applies to an incumbent President. Norming the 47-40 split over 100%, I figure that Obama would win about 54% of the vote against Romney. Bachmann and Palin are poison for the Republicans.

Romney would do better than anyone shown here -- even Pawlenty. I can't imagine any Southern Republican winning Minnesota except in a landslide even though none (Barbour, Huckabee, DeMint) is shown. If someone is thinking of having Pawlenty as a VP nominee in an effort to pick off the politically-similar states of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, then think again: even the favorite son effect is weaker for a VP candidate than for a   Presidential nominee. Prime example: Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX) as the running mate against George H W Bush in 1988.   




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  129
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  81
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 108
white                        too close to call  48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   151  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

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J. J.
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« Reply #6369 on: September 30, 2010, 09:49:05 pm »

I think Obama would lose all the states that are pale red or worse if the current conditions prevail in 2012.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6370 on: September 30, 2010, 11:57:31 pm »

I think Obama would lose all the states that are pale red or worse if the current conditions prevail in 2012.

Things will be very different in November 2012. One will be the economy -- probably better because President Obama will have done nothing harmful. Another will be that if we see GOP majorities in one or both Houses of Congress, then people are going to find out whether the GOP has learned anything other than be more deceitful, more strident, devious, and doctrinaire, then President Obama could seem far better.

Radical efforts to restructure America into a pure plutocracy will face the veto pen.

The GOP offers nothing more than more of the same -- but with a louder megaphone and anonymous command. If people knew who the shadowy interests were they would be as disgusted as I am.

Of course should America become the most blatant plutocracy since Imperial Russia, then the results of elections in 2014 or later might be irrelevant.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #6371 on: October 01, 2010, 12:13:16 am »

I love how Rasmussen broke Pbrower's heart.  Way to go Ras!

Real heartbreak would come from the Tea Party Movement achieving power in America and establishing a perverse syncretism of absolute plutocracy with Christian Protestant fundamentalism.

Looking at socialist authoritarian alternative we have with Obama, we can only hope so.

Can we settle down, children?  There will be no theocracy with the Tea Party or socialist authoritarianism with Obama.  Do either of you know ANYTHING about the United States?  The differences between the two parties in America in the grand scheme of things is minimal at best. 

     This really needed to be said. Calling random Democrats socialists & random Republicans fascists was dead wrong back when Gore Vidal did it to William F. Buckley & it's still dead wrong today.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6372 on: October 01, 2010, 06:42:38 am »



Things will be very different in November 2012. One will be the economy -- probably better because President Obama greatly harmed the economy.

Another will be that if we see GOP will support fiscal responsibility, unlike 2002-06 and individual freedom. We will also see if those efforts fall to Obama's veto pen.


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J. J.
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« Reply #6373 on: October 01, 2010, 06:45:46 am »

I love how Rasmussen broke Pbrower's heart.  Way to go Ras!

Real heartbreak would come from the Tea Party Movement achieving power in America and establishing a perverse syncretism of absolute plutocracy with Christian Protestant fundamentalism.

Looking at socialist authoritarian alternative we have with Obama, we can only hope so.

Can we settle down, children?  There will be no theocracy with the Tea Party or socialist authoritarianism with Obama.  Do either of you know ANYTHING about the United States?  The differences between the two parties in America in the grand scheme of things is minimal at best. 

     This really needed to be said. Calling random Democrats socialists & random Republicans fascists was dead wrong back when Gore Vidal did it to William F. Buckley & it's still dead wrong today.

You have seen a greater attempt under Obama, with the auto bailouts, to increase the government role in the private sector.  And in that case you cannot make the argument it was there to stabilize a broken infrastructure (unlike TARP).
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Special K
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« Reply #6374 on: October 01, 2010, 08:26:44 am »

(I tried using the quote button to respond to pbrower's post about how things will be different in 2012, blah blah blah, but I guess the post was too long, and it was a pain in the arse trying to type a response to it.....Huh)

Anyway....Things might be different in 2012, but I highly doubt it.  The economy shows absolutely no signs of improvement any time in the near future and I really don't see any way that it's going to make a sudden recovery in time for the election.  It may be *somewhat* better, but things will still be bad enough to cause problems for Obama.  And come 2012, he will no longer be able to blame everything on Bush.  That excuse will finally be put to rest as this will be seen, rightfully so, as Obama's economy (and also, Obama's wars, which will also plague him--warS because combat operations are NOT over in Iraq).  He will have to answer for all of it, rather than push the blame on somebody else.  I believe his approval ratings will be in the low 40s, or high 30s by November 2012.
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