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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1028690 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6875 on: December 08, 2010, 08:29:50 pm »

Klobuchar and Gillibrand are two talentless hacks from blue states that can in no way be won by any Republican in a one-on-one matchup.  Pawlenty woould have never left the hockey rink without third party liberals in Minnesota.  It is impossible for a Republican to win statewide in either NY or MN.

The Democrat Party, if it were intelligent, would instead rally around people like Joe Manchin, not people like Klobuchar and Gillibrand who do not have to do anything to win re-election.

Who don't in any way shape or form are attractive to the Democratic Base...

Not even to moderates.... there's a reason why Manchin won in a state that Obama got thumped in... it's because Manchin is a Democrat on paper but to the right on pretty much EVERYTHING that mainstream Democrats want.

Democrats don't need to shift actually into the right-wing to win nationally.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6876 on: December 08, 2010, 08:47:58 pm »

The Democrat Party base would vote for John Edwards over any Republican.  In case you haven't figured it out, 85% of African-Americans would vote for Spitzer over any Republican.

Manchin would do about as well with the Democrat Party base as any other liberal Democrat because the Democrat Party base votes for the Democrat come hell or high water.  There is absolutely no independent thought in the Democrat Party base when it comes to voting.

Manchin and people like him can win everyone in the Democrat Party base that obama would win including some right-leaning people and even conservatives that Obama could never win.  He'd win perhaps close to 60% of the vote nationwide in a one-on-one race.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6877 on: December 08, 2010, 08:53:27 pm »

The Democrat Party base would vote for John Edwards over any Republican.  In case you haven't figured it out, 85% of African-Americans would vote for Spitzer over any Republican.

Manchin would do about as well with the Democrat Party base as any other liberal Democrat because the Democrat Party base votes for the Democrat come hell or high water.  There is absolutely no independent thought in the Democrat Party base when it comes to voting.

Manchin and people like him can win everyone in the Democrat Party base that obama would win including some right-leaning people and even conservatives that Obama could never win.  He'd win perhaps close to 60% of the vote nationwide in a one-on-one race.

I doubt he'd survive the Primary...which is kind of the main point...

Would Democrats vote for Manchin over Palin? Sure.

But the main point is that race eventuating... which I would highly suspect.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6878 on: December 09, 2010, 10:51:05 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, u. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

Flatline.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6879 on: December 09, 2010, 01:46:52 pm »

pbrower:

What Ohio poll by Gallup are you talking about ?

And why is Oklahoma colored yellow in your map (there is no poll) ?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6880 on: December 09, 2010, 02:43:31 pm »
« Edited: December 09, 2010, 02:47:04 pm by pbrower2a »

pbrower:

What Ohio poll by Gallup are you talking about ?

And why is Oklahoma colored yellow in your map (there is no poll) ?

I meant to so color Ohio, not Oklahoma, having misread "Ohio" for Obama. Dirty eyeglasses,, strike again. The bad map is now deleted.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6881 on: December 09, 2010, 03:37:17 pm »

New York (Quinnipiac): 48-43

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1541

pbrower, you still need to color Massachusetts green in your map: 55-40

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_1203424.pdf
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TXsaff
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« Reply #6882 on: December 09, 2010, 04:39:37 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, u. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

Flatline.


This surprises me.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6883 on: December 09, 2010, 07:15:23 pm »

Massachusetts, New York.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow 
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow 
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                   
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 83
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  81
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 7
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 32
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Note: Strictly as a change for visibility I am reducing the shade for approval under 50% but still greater than disapproval from green 30% to 20%. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #6884 on: December 10, 2010, 09:55:01 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, u. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.

No "weekend drop."  Still strange numbers.

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J. J.
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« Reply #6885 on: December 11, 2010, 10:38:34 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, u. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, u.

Flatline again.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6886 on: December 11, 2010, 01:20:31 pm »

Gallup: 43/49
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6887 on: December 11, 2010, 04:39:08 pm »

I bet we'll see a drop this week from deflated support on the left.

EDIT: Even before the tax cuts deal, arguably the most unpopular with thing he has done as far as the base is concerned, I think about 20% of those disapproving said they felt so because he wasn't liberal enough.  That number will shoot up this week.  He may fall below 40% approval in the wake of this.

Not quite below 40.  Though they're still a decent bet to come home  once the election kicks in.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #6888 on: December 11, 2010, 04:58:58 pm »

Gallup: Obama at 43%
IDD/TIPP: Obama 41%
Marist: Obama: 42%
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J. J.
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« Reply #6889 on: December 12, 2010, 09:37:03 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, u.

Leftist dissatisfaction with tax cut, or just a bad sample, could be driving the "Strongly Approve" number lower. 

Interesting his approval numbers are higher than on the other polls.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6890 on: December 12, 2010, 12:48:21 pm »

Not surprised Rasmussen is higher than other polls since their more Republican sample won't reflect Obama's recent alienation of liberals to the extent other polls do.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6891 on: December 12, 2010, 04:39:30 pm »

I honestly find Gillibrand pretty underwhelming.  Klobuchar, sure.  I could see her run for president at some point.  But Gillibrand?  Is there anything more there than the fact that she's a young female Senator from New York?
I think frustrations stemming from Hillary near miss and Obama's compromises will help a female with a strong progressive record and being from NY will allow her to vote very liberal.  She's not Elizabeth Warren but I highly doubt Warren will run.  KG seems quite likely to.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6892 on: December 13, 2010, 10:15:22 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +2.

Again, this could be a bad sample moving through.  Wednesday or Thursday results should tell, if not sooner.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #6893 on: December 13, 2010, 07:46:38 pm »

Obama down in OH 42/49 - PPP
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6894 on: December 13, 2010, 11:43:04 pm »
« Edited: December 14, 2010, 12:29:00 pm by pbrower2a »

Other findings from the Clarus Poll:

STATEWIDE JOB RATINGS

                                       Approve Disapprove Donít Know
President Barack Obama     44%      48%              8%

Wisconsin, too. Republicans did well there in 2010, but probably not in 2012.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 83
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   67
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 17
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 45
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


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TXsaff
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« Reply #6895 on: December 14, 2010, 02:07:06 am »

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Well...okay.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6896 on: December 14, 2010, 02:17:41 am »

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Well...okay.

The "devil you know" mentality rules the day.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6897 on: December 14, 2010, 02:46:41 am »

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Well...okay.

The "devil you know" mentality rules the day.

And after two years, Obama is still an enigma.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6898 on: December 14, 2010, 08:33:27 am »

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Well...okay.

The "devil you know" mentality rules the day.

And after two years, Obama is still an enigma.

And yet he is leading the entire known GOP field in Ohio of all places!  I agree it seems odd given his approval, but he is polling at a 2008 repeat just about everywhere he's been tested, and that's with an economy that will likely improve over the next 2 years.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6899 on: December 14, 2010, 09:51:19 am »

Virginia (Clarus Research):

44% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://www.clarusrg.com/sites/default/files/SenatorWebbFacesToughReelectionBattle.pdf
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