The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is the time of year when the most approval ratings hit - and now pbrower goes off to hide.  what a surprise.

Well, we've already called the 2012 race for Obama, so I think he's off working on his 2016 maps.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Statistical, if tragic noise.

I can't tell if you're somehow making a grossly incoherent reference to the Tucson shootings or aptly describing this thread.

Pbrower posts here under protection of the American with Disabilities Act.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Gun control, long a third rail, can become a no-lose proposition for the President. Restoration of the assault-weapons ban? Ban on the massacre clips?

The State of the Union Address is on Wednesday night. 

Obama waited far too long for gun control to be a no-lose proposition. We're well outside the Giffords news cycle by now.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Basically the Republicans nominate Mike Huckabee or risk losing  Missouri, which they dare not do.

What a strange way of interpreting this poll. I like the optimism though!

Analysis isn't really his strong suit -- snicker, snicker!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Since Bin Ladden is dead, his ratings will improve.

good job

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think somewhere in the middle-to-upper 50s... and it will stick.

There will be no effect on economic perceptions, but much else...

If nothing else, you have to admire how consistently wrong this guy can be.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Like I say, take this thread with a grain of salt. Otherwise, its a joke.  Notice how there's rarely anybody posting on here anymore?

I come here daily to see the data because it's so comprehensive. I just wish this was a data-only thread with the analysis confined somewhere else that's easily ignored.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I can't see President Obama winning Kansas except against a lunatic (he'd probably get at most 48% of the vote against someone like Romney or Pawlenty now that Huckabee is out),

Expecting a shift of "only" 13 or 15 points there? How very restrained.

but I can imagine a House seat or two shifting there with a somewhat-sane Republican as a Presidential nominee. Two here, two there, one here, three there -- it all adds up in the House.

This is an interesting point that I'd love to learn more about! Which of the 4 GOP held seats in Kansas do you expect Democrats to "shift" with a "somewhat-sane Republican" nominee?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Technically, Barack Obama lived in Somerville, MA. At precisely this address.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Sarah Palin, according to a "tweet" by PPP, has a  split of favorability of 32/58 in Utah.

The populated sections of Utah are in a seismic zone almost as dangerous as California, which might be good for a few metaphors.

Hey BRTD, there's got to be a handful of tropes to describe the style of writing that pbrower exhibits, no? Like, someone who tells a bad joke and then follows up the joke with an explanation of why it's funny, such that even those who don't think the joke is funny can appreciate the wit and intelligence of he who wrote it?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

in before utah turns dark green

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

in before utah turns dark green

Such would still amaze me.

As a wise man once said, much can and will happen in the next 29+ months -- and will.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'd presume that Obama's problem here is the budget negotiation. Not that I think Republicans are winning -- instead, I presume both Republicans and Obama are losing.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I can think of a perfect island. It is spectacularly beautiful, has a pleasant climate, good harbors, attractive and friendly natives, and no pirates or tropical diseases. Its location is 40 North Latitude and 160 West Longitude. Good as it is, it must have the quality of existence.  

Of course there is no such island.

It sounds like you described Hawaii to a T, except for the 40 North Latitude part. Think you can live with all but an arbitrary designation of latitude?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Count on unemployment to remain high through 2012. Democrats will surely need to offer a stimulus.

LOL. Obama just signed on to massive spending cuts as part of the debt ceiling compromise. What kind of stimulus you think you're going to get out of that?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

2013... assuming that the President is re-elected and that the Democrats keep the Senate and gain the House. Democrats will have to make that promise. What will Republicans have to offer? Pay cuts? Further tax cuts for the super-rich? Privatization of Social Security and Medicare?

Well, here's what Romney offered in 2008:

• A cut in the top corporate rate to 20 percent from 35 percent, phased in over two years.
• Cutting the lowest individual income tax bracket to 7.5 percent from 10 percent. To provide immediate spending money for those with moderate incomes, he would make that reduction retroactively applicable to the previous year's income for taxpayers earning less than $97,500.
• Permanently eliminating Social Security payroll taxes for workers over age 65.
• Temporarily permitting businesses to deduct 100 percent of the cost of investments for two years.
• Eliminating capital gains and dividend taxes for taxpayers earning under $200,000 a year.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

6% rule, lol

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I corrected you post, Lief, though I doubt that you'll understand immediately.  The Vorlon will.

Yes, I imagine two dumbs who like to make grand and incorrect pronouncements will understand each other well.

The second prophecy is fulfilled.  Anybody want to me to call them when I get Powerball numbers?

Oh, and Lief, 39% is lower than 40%.

Indeed, 39% is one number less than 40%.

No, no, I assure you that both 39 and 40 contain two numbers each.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Every time I see pbrower's map with Nebraska still going 1 EV for Obama based on a poll from well over half-a-year ago, I lulz my pants a little bit.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Every time I see pbrower's map with Nebraska still going 1 EV for Obama based on a poll from well over half-a-year ago, I lulz my pants a little bit.

The Second Congressional District of Nebraska, essentially Greater Omaha, votes very differently (about R+2) from the rest of Nebraska (probably about R+25) Democrats can win NE-02 in a good year, as shown in 2008. Of course that all changes if Nebraska is gerrymandered so that Greater Omaha is split with the rest of eastern Nebraska (NE-01, which includes Lincoln).

In 2008, NE-01 voted like Texas
              NE-02 voted like Indiana
              NE-03 voted like Wyoming.  

If you say NE-02 is going to vote like Indiana, then your map says that Obama is going to win Indiana by over 10 points.