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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1026580 times)
Rowan
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« Reply #8500 on: August 12, 2011, 05:36:47 am »

This reminds me of their poll from 2010 that had Paladino performing really well.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8501 on: August 12, 2011, 09:24:52 am »
« Edited: August 12, 2011, 10:00:32 am by pbrower2a »

PPP, NC

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_0811424.pdf

New York State (Quinnipiac):

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

45% Approve (-12)
49% Disapprove (+11)

Voters split 48 - 46 percent on whether President Obama deserves reelection and say 49 - 34 percent they would vote for him over an unnamed Republican.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1636

Wat.

It will be very interesting to see what pbrower does with his map now ... Wink

The poll comes from immediately after the budget deal. I suspect that the loss in support for the President comes from the liberal base of the Democratic Party in New York, one that considers the Deficit Ceiling deal a sell-out.  What might have worked well in a relatively-conservative state like North Carolina is a flop in New York State. Take a look at the approval for the Governor of New York in New York, who needs little compromise with such types as Senators Mitch McConnell and James DeMint:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1634

The deal is a success if it works for President Obama -- and if it is a failure should the economy begin to tank, then he will be able to renounce it at any time. All that the Republicans can possibly offer in the event of an economic downturn is exactly the sorts of economic policies that lead to an economic downturn or non-cures (basically cutting taxes for the super-rich). 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 106
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    55
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 116
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 129
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    55
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 119
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 35
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  29
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 87
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8502 on: August 12, 2011, 10:31:52 am »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_0811925.pdf

In case you wonder why Colorado shows so well for President Obama -- it could be that the state has been going very D this year. Note that Michael Bennett barely defeated Ken Buck in November. 

Colorado may have been about R+1 in 2008... but it is probably D+4 or so now, which is about where Minnesota is.

It could also be that Colorado Democrats are also very competent politicians.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8503 on: August 12, 2011, 04:09:26 pm »

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  41%, u

Disapprove:  51%, u.
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Umengus
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« Reply #8504 on: August 13, 2011, 06:30:13 am »

New York State (Quinnipiac):

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

45% Approve (-12)
49% Disapprove (+11)

Voters split 48 - 46 percent on whether President Obama deserves reelection and say 49 - 34 percent they would vote for him over an unnamed Republican.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1636


fake poll. Outlier.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #8505 on: August 13, 2011, 07:03:59 am »

New York State (Quinnipiac):

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

45% Approve (-12)
49% Disapprove (+11)

Voters split 48 - 46 percent on whether President Obama deserves reelection and say 49 - 34 percent they would vote for him over an unnamed Republican.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1636


fake poll. Outlier.

sure, a republican can't be trailing by 15 points in NY Tongue
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J. J.
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« Reply #8506 on: August 13, 2011, 08:47:59 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, +1.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

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J. J.
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« Reply #8507 on: August 13, 2011, 02:24:45 pm »

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, +1

Disapprove:  51%, u.

Obama might be moving out of the trough.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8508 on: August 13, 2011, 05:29:25 pm »

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, +1

Disapprove:  51%, u.

Obama might be moving out of the trough.

I use a 30 day rolling average for Gallup...  Very "pure" polling with almost no sample stratification.  Damn hard to do these days.  Give them credit for keeping the "old school" alive Smiley
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J. J.
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« Reply #8509 on: August 13, 2011, 06:55:35 pm »

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, +1

Disapprove:  51%, u.

Obama might be moving out of the trough.

I use a 30 day rolling average for Gallup...  Very "pure" polling with almost no sample stratification.  Damn hard to do these days.  Give them credit for keeping the "old school" alive Smiley

It is late August 1914, and I'm trying to see where von Kluck is heading.  Smiley

I'm trying to find the point, as early as possible, where Obama's poll numbers start making an upswing.  Gallup, though not my favorite pollster, has a fairly long and accessible record, and that is good for making comparisons.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8510 on: August 14, 2011, 10:32:06 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.


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Rowan
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« Reply #8511 on: August 14, 2011, 12:18:59 pm »

Under 40% for the first time in Gallup polling:

Approve: 39%(-3%)

Disapprove: 54%(+3%)

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TXsaff
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« Reply #8512 on: August 14, 2011, 12:20:25 pm »

Hah what?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8513 on: August 14, 2011, 12:54:31 pm »
« Edited: August 14, 2011, 01:40:25 pm by Does anybody else miss Bill Clinton? »

Under 40% for the first time in Gallup polling:

Approve: 39%(-3%)

Disapprove: 54%(+3%)



Whenever I see a tracking poll move 6% in one day my first reaction is always "blip"

That being said...

The distribution of Obama approval in the last 15 polls on the RCP average is:


45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45
44, 44, 44, 44, 44, 44, 44
42
39

When 15 consecutive polls from 12 different polling organizations show no better than 45%, well, the numbers are what they are.......

Even Democracy Corpse (D) showed a minus 5 net approval, 45/50 with a -15 intensity rating. (25% strongly approve versus 40% strongly disapprove) for Obama.

This same poll showed the GOP +6 on the Economy (To be fair, there is SOME good news in the DC poll if you're a Dem)

Not sure I quite believe 39%, but It's darn hard to make an argument Obama is any better than 44% or 45%

Obama is, give or take a point or so, where Bush was in the summer of 2004 at the height of the Abu Garab (sp?) prison mess - Perhaps the S&P downgrade is Obama's Abu Garab?

The Bush versus Obama polling is similar in other ways - both candidates had their base strick with them, both candidates retained higher personal favorability ratings that job approval ratings.

As of now, 2012 looks a lot like 2004 to me at the presidential level.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #8514 on: August 14, 2011, 01:04:12 pm »

Obama average approval now at -3.1  (RealClear), he has been in negative territory for about 2 weeks, I expect he get some sort a bump when the debt ceiling is raised and he takes credit for whatever "compromise" occurs.

Well I admit I was wrong.
There was no bump for Obama, his approval has dropped to -7.1, his approval, 43.4% is the lowest in his Presidency.
Can he turn it around?
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CJK
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« Reply #8515 on: August 14, 2011, 01:12:48 pm »

It really is astounding that his approval ratings are still as high as they are, but you have to take into account that he is being artificially inflated by the fact that blacks support him no matter what and the growing hispanic population is 20 points to the left of whites. His white approval rating at 39% is probably like 30% or less.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #8516 on: August 14, 2011, 01:19:07 pm »

It really is astounding that his approval ratings are still as high as they are, but you have to take into account that he is being artificially inflated by the fact that blacks support him no matter what and the growing hispanic population is 20 points to the left of whites. His white approval rating at 39% is probably like 30% or less.

Because it's only white voters who matter. Roll Eyes
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8517 on: August 14, 2011, 01:30:51 pm »


Because it's only white voters who actually turn out and vote that matter. Roll Eyes
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J. J.
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« Reply #8518 on: August 14, 2011, 02:26:44 pm »
« Edited: August 14, 2011, 03:37:35 pm by J. J. »

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  39%, -3.

Disapprove:  54%, +3.

Obama is not out of the trough.  He's either at the bottom or on the way down to the bottom.

J.J. can apparently predict the future now as well.

No "apparently" about it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8519 on: August 14, 2011, 02:36:15 pm »

At this point out from the election, Obama is lower than all prior presidents since the end of 1942, except for Reagan and Carter.  Reagan was well off his low; Carter was also just coming off his low.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8520 on: August 14, 2011, 03:59:14 pm »

Ah, so he admits he believes he can predict the future now. lololol
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J. J.
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« Reply #8521 on: August 14, 2011, 04:06:17 pm »

Ah, so he admits he believes he can predict the future now. lololol

No, I admit that I just did, in this case.  No "apparently" about it, since this the low point, so far, for Obama on Gallup. 

Did you just become the 2011 version of "Mypalfish?"

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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8522 on: August 14, 2011, 05:00:27 pm »


It is late August 1914, and I'm trying to see where von Kluck is heading.  Smiley


An obscure, but generally correct metaphor...

Von Kluck: A general who, due to his own catastrophic errors let his forces to a substantial defeat (despite have greater resources than the enemy) and who maintained till his death that the defeat was the result of errors made by others and that he himself was blameless.....  

Not sure the personal reputation for brutality quite fits.. unless 'bama has an unknown dark side....
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Penelope
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« Reply #8523 on: August 14, 2011, 05:54:53 pm »

J.J.: PROPHET OF GALLUP
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J. J.
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« Reply #8524 on: August 14, 2011, 05:57:35 pm »


It is late August 1914, and I'm trying to see where von Kluck is heading.  Smiley


An obscure, but generally correct metaphor...

Von Kluck: A general who, due to his own catastrophic errors let his forces to a substantial defeat (despite have greater resources than the enemy) and who maintained till his death that the defeat was the result of errors made by others and that he himself was blameless.....  

Not sure the personal reputation for brutality quite fits.. unless 'bama has an unknown dark side....

Well, I'm casting Obama in the role of the French, who won the next major battle, 1st Marne, and the war.

On August 31, 1914, a French cavalry captain named Lepic, was on a Reconnaissance mission northwest of Compiegne.  He saw the edge of von Kluck's First Army pass.  It was heading southeast, toward Compiegne.  Paris was southwest of his position.

Captain Lepic reported three things.  The German were asking the locals, in bad French, where the English were.  The Uhlans, the German cavalry, had stopped wearing their czapki (a type of helmet) and were wearing cloth caps.  And finally, oh, the Germans were on the road heading southeast, away from Paris.  Smiley

Basically, I'm looking for the point where Obama can look at the poll numbers and say, "Well, it's going to get better from this point out," or "It will never be as bad as it was back in ___ ."  We are not at that point yet.

BTW:  I blame von Bülow, tactically, and von Moltke, for sending 2 corps to East Prussia, more than I do von Kluck.

(That might be an alternate history story one day.)

Most other president, except G W Bush, could look at their numbers and say that, at this point
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