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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1027037 times)
Penelope
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« Reply #8525 on: August 14, 2011, 05:59:23 pm »

The President's approval is at 39%, and it was a -3% jump downward. It'll go back up soon. Well, back from the 30s, probably.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8526 on: August 14, 2011, 06:03:26 pm »


Well, I was the prophet there.  Smiley

Let's see how I do with gold and the market, not to mention the realignment.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8527 on: August 14, 2011, 06:05:16 pm »

The President's approval is at 39%, and it was a -3% jump downward. It'll go back up soon. Well, back from the 30s, probably.

Maybe, but I'll looking for the low point on Gallup.  It's just a measure of where the basement is.
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Penelope
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« Reply #8528 on: August 14, 2011, 06:11:21 pm »

The President's approval is at 39%, and it was a -3% jump downward. It'll go back up soon. Well, back from the 30s, probably.

Maybe, but I'll looking for the low point on Gallup.  It's just a measure of where the basement is.

Yes, but you must stop looking for the "low point". Try to analyze the results, instead of looking for what you want to see.


Well, I was the prophet there.  Smiley

Let's see how I do with gold and the market, not to mention the realignment.

Please get over yourself.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8529 on: August 14, 2011, 06:26:20 pm »

The President's approval is at 39%, and it was a -3% jump downward. It'll go back up soon. Well, back from the 30s, probably.

Maybe, but I'll looking for the low point on Gallup.  It's just a measure of where the basement is.

Yes, but you must stop looking for the "low point". Try to analyze the results, instead of looking for what you want to see.

I am, but I'm looking at a long term comparison, going back to 1975.  On Obama's weekly averages, he's lower than any other president, except Reagan (barely, and possibly not after this week), and Carter.  Both Carter and Reagan were off their low points, by this point, and Obama is either at or heading lower.  I'm looking for the point where he starts heading upward.

Quote
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Well, I was the prophet there.  Smiley

Let's see how I do with gold and the market, not to mention the realignment.
[/quote]

Please get over yourself.
[/quote]

[/quote]

Both you and Lief made an issue of it, so don't blame me.  Maybe you and Lief can start a "I will now accept my accolades" thread.  Smiley

Just see where it is going and remember that I'm looking for the point where Obama's numbers improve.  That means that, prophetically, I expect them to improve.  Smiley
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8530 on: August 14, 2011, 11:45:53 pm »

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J. J.
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« Reply #8531 on: August 14, 2011, 11:58:02 pm »


I corrected you post, Lief, though I doubt that you'll understand immediately.  The Vorlon will.

I'm looking for the point where the numbers start going up, and we obviously are not there yet.  I do expect them to.

Sometimes, it is easy to know what will happen, based on what has happened.  There is whole thread looking at it, in detail.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8532 on: August 15, 2011, 12:47:43 am »

I corrected you post, Lief, though I doubt that you'll understand immediately.  The Vorlon will.

Yes, I imagine two dumbs who like to make grand and incorrect pronouncements will understand each other well.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8533 on: August 15, 2011, 12:50:41 am »
« Edited: August 15, 2011, 12:55:40 am by J. J. »

I corrected you post, Lief, though I doubt that you'll understand immediately.  The Vorlon will.

Yes, I imagine two dumbs who like to make grand and incorrect pronouncements will understand each other well.

The second prophecy is fulfilled.  Anybody want to me to call them when I get Powerball numbers?

Oh, and Lief, 39% is lower than 40%.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8534 on: August 15, 2011, 07:14:23 am »

Tarrance Group

Iowa LVs

Obama approval: 43-52
Strong Disapprove: 46%

Independents: 32-61
Strong Disapprove: 51%

http://www.tarrance.com/wp-con​tent/uploads/2011/08/American-​Action-Network-Iowa-Statewide-​Release.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #8535 on: August 15, 2011, 08:37:12 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.



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Penelope
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« Reply #8536 on: August 15, 2011, 09:52:38 am »

I corrected you post, Lief, though I doubt that you'll understand immediately.  The Vorlon will.

Yes, I imagine two dumbs who like to make grand and incorrect pronouncements will understand each other well.

The second prophecy is fulfilled.  Anybody want to me to call them when I get Powerball numbers?

Oh, and Lief, 39% is lower than 40%.

Indeed, 39% is one number less than 40%.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #8537 on: August 15, 2011, 10:39:57 am »

I corrected you post, Lief, though I doubt that you'll understand immediately.  The Vorlon will.

Yes, I imagine two dumbs who like to make grand and incorrect pronouncements will understand each other well.

The second prophecy is fulfilled.  Anybody want to me to call them when I get Powerball numbers?

Oh, and Lief, 39% is lower than 40%.

Indeed, 39% is one number less than 40%.

No, no, I assure you that both 39 and 40 contain two numbers each.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #8538 on: August 15, 2011, 10:40:29 am »

Under 40% for the first time in Gallup polling:

Approve: 39%(-3%)

Disapprove: 54%(+3%)



Whenever I see a tracking poll move 6% in one day my first reaction is always "blip"

That being said...

The distribution of Obama approval in the last 15 polls on the RCP average is:


45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45
44, 44, 44, 44, 44, 44, 44
42
39

When 15 consecutive polls from 12 different polling organizations show no better than 45%, well, the numbers are what they are.......

Even Democracy Corpse (D) showed a minus 5 net approval, 45/50 with a -15 intensity rating. (25% strongly approve versus 40% strongly disapprove) for Obama.

This same poll showed the GOP +6 on the Economy (To be fair, there is SOME good news in the DC poll if you're a Dem)

Not sure I quite believe 39%, but It's darn hard to make an argument Obama is any better than 44% or 45%

Obama is, give or take a point or so, where Bush was in the summer of 2004 at the height of the Abu Garab (sp?) prison mess - Perhaps the S&P downgrade is Obama's Abu Garab?

The Bush versus Obama polling is similar in other ways - both candidates had their base strick with them, both candidates retained higher personal favorability ratings that job approval ratings.

As of now, 2012 looks a lot like 2004 to me at the presidential level.

First, I believe that the Gallup methodology results is some rather erratic swings.  They gave his astronomical job performance ratings in early 2009, and now are giving him ratings lower than just about any other poll.

Second, I have found Democracy Corps to be generally pretty reasonable.  Unlike R2K (remember how I told you their numbers were suspect years ago?) or the new version R2L (PPP).

Third, what is most interesting is the intensity ratings, where Democracy Corps largely mirrors Rasmussen.  I can not understand why Gallup isn't using the Stapleometer (which they developed).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8539 on: August 15, 2011, 10:56:40 am »

Unlike R2K (remember how I told you their numbers were suspect years ago?) or the new version R2L (PPP).

You won't give up, won't you ?

There´s no reason to believe that PPP fakes the results like R2000.

Take for example the Wisconsin SD 30 race, a race that was not polled by any other company before PPP. They found that the Democrat would win by 62-34, he won by 67-33. If we take into account the undecideds (4%), of which the Democrat gained another 3 points and the Republican 1, the projected PPP result would have been 65-35.

Now, if PPP made up numbers, why wouldn't they have said that the Democrat wins by 54-42, or by 56-41, or by 70-28 ?

PPP's continued accuracy over time shows that they actually went into the field in these districts and that they are not making up numbers out of the air. If they were really faking the numbers, they probably shouldn't be in the polling business but playing in the lottery, because their accurate predictions would win them most likely a jackpot.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #8540 on: August 15, 2011, 11:31:16 am »

Under 40% for the first time in Gallup polling:

Approve: 39%(-3%)

Disapprove: 54%(+3%)



Whenever I see a tracking poll move 6% in one day my first reaction is always "blip"

That being said...

The distribution of Obama approval in the last 15 polls on the RCP average is:


45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45
44, 44, 44, 44, 44, 44, 44
42
39

When 15 consecutive polls from 12 different polling organizations show no better than 45%, well, the numbers are what they are.......

Even Democracy Corpse (D) showed a minus 5 net approval, 45/50 with a -15 intensity rating. (25% strongly approve versus 40% strongly disapprove) for Obama.

This same poll showed the GOP +6 on the Economy (To be fair, there is SOME good news in the DC poll if you're a Dem)

Not sure I quite believe 39%, but It's darn hard to make an argument Obama is any better than 44% or 45%

Obama is, give or take a point or so, where Bush was in the summer of 2004 at the height of the Abu Garab (sp?) prison mess - Perhaps the S&P downgrade is Obama's Abu Garab?

The Bush versus Obama polling is similar in other ways - both candidates had their base strick with them, both candidates retained higher personal favorability ratings that job approval ratings.

As of now, 2012 looks a lot like 2004 to me at the presidential level.

First, I believe that the Gallup methodology results is some rather erratic swings.  They gave his astronomical job performance ratings in early 2009, and now are giving him ratings lower than just about any other poll.

When Gallup did the first Job Approval poll for Obama from January 21 through 23 of 2009, they had an absurd 68% approval to a 12% disapproval.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls

Second, I have found Democracy Corps to be generally pretty reasonable.  Unlike R2K (remember how I told you their numbers were suspect years ago?) or the new version R2L (PPP).

Third, what is most interesting is the intensity ratings, where Democracy Corps largely mirrors Rasmussen.  I can not understand why Gallup isn't using the Stapleometer (which they developed).

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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #8541 on: August 15, 2011, 11:39:49 am »

Unlike R2K (remember how I told you their numbers were suspect years ago?) or the new version R2L (PPP).

You won't give up, won't you ?

There´s no reason to believe that PPP fakes the results like R2000.

Take for example the Wisconsin SD 30 race, a race that was not polled by any other company before PPP. They found that the Democrat would win by 62-34, he won by 67-33. If we take into account the undecideds (4%), of which the Democrat gained another 3 points and the Republican 1, the projected PPP result would have been 65-35.

Now, if PPP made up numbers, why wouldn't they have said that the Democrat wins by 54-42, or by 56-41, or by 70-28 ?

PPP's continued accuracy over time shows that they actually went into the field in these districts and that they are not making up numbers out of the air. If they were really faking the numbers, they probably shouldn't be in the polling business but playing in the lottery, because their accurate predictions would win them most likely a jackpot.

Lets take a look at your assertions, would harm their reputation.

First, one can generally pretty easily estimate election results based on historical results (psephology), so a plausible PPP poll means basically nothing.  For a survey research firm to produce irrational numbers.

Second, there are two major methods of testing the plausibility of a survey research firms numbers: one is to look at their methodology, which includes (among other things) their sample composition, and two, to look at their results compared to other relibable survey research firms.

Now, on other posts with respect to PPP, I have examined both basis for the period since they becaume the pollster for Daily Kos (as you know).

PPP is interesting in that prior to becoming the PPP (and SIEU) pollster, they had a reputation for getting pretty good results from unusually small samples.

Since becoming the Daily Kos pollster, they have produced some really bizarre polls (see Colorado).

Now, as Vorlon can tell you, I was on to R2K long before Nate Silver,
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8542 on: August 15, 2011, 11:58:39 am »

I corrected you post, Lief, though I doubt that you'll understand immediately.  The Vorlon will.

Yes, I imagine two dumbs who like to make grand and incorrect pronouncements will understand each other well.

Gee, thanks...

I don't quite remember ever remember taking a crap in your morning cornflakes.. but apparently somewhere along the way I did....
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Iosif
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« Reply #8543 on: August 15, 2011, 12:08:42 pm »

Obama's back up to 41% in Gallup.

I guess he's finished troughing.

The deluge is still yet to come.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8544 on: August 15, 2011, 01:02:11 pm »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  41%, +2.

Disapprove:  52%, -2.
Obama's back up to 41% in Gallup.

I guess he's finished troughing.

The deluge is still yet to come.

He might or he might not, but at least Obama is heading in the right (not by my standards) direction today.

It would be ironic if maximum trough was August 30.  Smiley


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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8545 on: August 15, 2011, 02:00:30 pm »

UTAH - MASON DIXON:

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8546 on: August 15, 2011, 02:35:24 pm »

Ohio (PPP):

44% Approve
52% Disapprove

Wisconsin (PPP):

45% Approve
51% Disapprove

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8547 on: August 15, 2011, 02:50:30 pm »
« Edited: August 16, 2011, 03:47:38 pm by pbrower2a »

Utah gets to show us what 70% disapproval looks like on the map -- very clearly due to its large area.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 106
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    55
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 116
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 106
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    55
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 119
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 35
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  29
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 87
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8548 on: August 15, 2011, 02:56:52 pm »

Ohio (PPP):

44% Approve
52% Disapprove

Wisconsin (PPP):

45% Approve
51% Disapprove

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I will have to see how the President does against potential GOP nominees  before I post these polls on my map. I got a hint on Ohio that he would defeat anyone.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8549 on: August 15, 2011, 05:34:27 pm »


I'll go out on a limb and declare Utah as "Likely Republican" in 2012

I have DC leaning to the Democrats.
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