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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 999654 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #900 on: May 28, 2009, 11:54:07 am »

Obama's approval ratings in November 2012 will determine whether he wins or loses.

Wrong.  Approval ratings have no direct relationship with the percentage of the vote a candidate gets.  This is completely different than predicting baseball because there are no absolute precedents, just relative precedents.  In politics there is no such thing as definite causation.  You can never predict the future in politics because even if you were to somehow know what Obama is going to do and how people have reacted to that in the past, it will never be the same as anything that has happened.  There are too many variables.  That's why peoples' predictions on election day are sometimes wildly off.  Predicting now, especially based on approval ratings, is the most asinine and ridiculous notion in politics.  There is no other reason but hackery to seriously suggest that Obama will win West Virginia, Kentucky, and Louisiana.

I have shown their limitations in my response -- and I have stated that anything can change. Some changes are more likely than others.

I have explained West Virginia, where Obama now has an approval rating around 60%. Do you argue with that rating?

If anything, my model suggests that the GOP has more chance of getting  trounced in the 2012 Presidential race than of winning, and that should be a fair warning: expend efforts elsewhere, especially in grass-roots efforts to win city council seats and county-wide elections -- and of course to distance itself as much as possible from ideological stances no longer popular and no longer achievable. 
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Devilman88
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« Reply #901 on: May 28, 2009, 11:58:42 am »

Obama's approval ratings in November 2012 will determine whether he wins or loses.

Wrong.  Approval ratings have no direct relationship with the percentage of the vote a candidate gets.  This is completely different than predicting baseball because there are no absolute precedents, just relative precedents.  In politics there is no such thing as definite causation.  You can never predict the future in politics because even if you were to somehow know what Obama is going to do and how people have reacted to that in the past, it will never be the same as anything that has happened.  There are too many variables.  That's why peoples' predictions on election day are sometimes wildly off.  Predicting now, especially based on approval ratings, is the most asinine and ridiculous notion in politics.  There is no other reason but hackery to seriously suggest that Obama will win West Virginia, Kentucky, and Louisiana.

I have shown their limitations in my response -- and I have stated that anything can change. Some changes are more likely than others.

I have explained West Virginia, where Obama now has an approval rating around 60%. Do you argue with that rating?

If anything, my model suggests that the GOP has more chance of getting  trounced in the 2012 Presidential race than of winning, and that should be a fair warning: expend efforts elsewhere, especially in grass-roots efforts to win city council seats and county-wide elections -- and of course to distance itself as much as possible from ideological stances no longer popular and no longer achievable. 

That WV poll was taking right after Obama took office. You are just a Democratic hack who twist thing to make Obama look better. Next you will be saying Obama will become King and take over the world.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #902 on: May 28, 2009, 12:53:13 pm »

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac University)Sad

62% Approve
31% Disapprove

From May 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,191 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 517 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points and 561 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1304
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #903 on: May 28, 2009, 01:02:27 pm »


That WV poll was taking right after Obama took office. You are just a Democratic hack who twist thing to make Obama look better. Next you will be saying Obama will become King and take over the world.

My model is flexible. It's worth noting that the commercial polls of early November 2008 got things right. Getting Indiana, North Carolina, Montana, and Missouri wrong wasn't much of a mistake because the polls recognized that predictions for those states were within the margin of error.  As a rule they got the rest right.

Earlier ones seemed to get things as they were at the time.  My model should be recognized for what it says and what it didn't say. I don't predict how things will be in 2012, but I can pick some sure paths of failure for the GOP in 2012 -- like cleaving to ideologies associated with Rove, Cheney, Dubya, DeLay, and the like.

If Obama should fail -- then I have created a model that can illustrate that.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #904 on: May 28, 2009, 01:05:40 pm »
« Edited: May 29, 2009, 07:04:55 pm by pbrower2a »

Obama support down to 62% in Pennsylvania:





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Vepres
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« Reply #905 on: May 28, 2009, 03:39:31 pm »

Obama support down to 62% in Pennsylvania:




Hmm... I find it surprising there is no poll of Montana yet considering how close the results there were.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #906 on: May 28, 2009, 07:21:17 pm »

Mississippi and North Dakota would be interesting, too.
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unempprof
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« Reply #907 on: May 28, 2009, 07:49:50 pm »

It isn't really surprising we have no polls from those 3 states.  They don't have any interesting races in 2010 so no one has polled them.
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change08
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« Reply #908 on: May 28, 2009, 07:56:49 pm »

It isn't really surprising we have no polls from those 3 states.  They don't have any interesting races in 2010 so no one has polled them.

OT but HAHAHA amazing screen name. Google says it exists aswell. lol
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unempprof
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« Reply #909 on: May 28, 2009, 08:03:09 pm »

It isn't really surprising we have no polls from those 3 states.  They don't have any interesting races in 2010 so no one has polled them.

OT but HAHAHA amazing screen name. Google says it exists aswell. lol

thanks Smiley
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #910 on: May 29, 2009, 11:55:04 pm »

Rasmussen:

59% (+3) Approve (37% Strongly Approve, +2)
40% (-3) Disapprove (27% Strongly Disapprove, -2)

"Thatís the highest level of overall approval since March."

Gallup:

64% Approve (nc)
29% Disapprove (-1)



New Jersey (Research 2000/DailyKos)Sad

69% Favorable
26% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 New Jersey Poll was conducted from May 25 through May 27, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/5/27/NJ/306
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #911 on: May 30, 2009, 01:10:57 am »

Just like Carter!  Good path to be following. Wink

And even is he is like Carter (which I doubt), the Republicans have nobody like Reagan for '12.

They just don't have ...
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War on Want
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« Reply #912 on: May 30, 2009, 01:21:35 am »

Just like Carter!  Good path to be following. Wink
America doesn't need another Reagan. Tongue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #913 on: May 30, 2009, 09:05:57 am »

Just like Carter!  Good path to be following. Wink

Obama's political skills (including his ability to get his point across) better resemble those of Ronald Reagan than those of Jimmy Carter. Carter barely became President, defeating a weak incumbent.
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Vepres
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« Reply #914 on: May 30, 2009, 09:09:10 am »

Just like Carter!  Good path to be following. Wink

And even is he is like Carter (which I doubt), the Republicans have nobody like Reagan for '12.

They just don't have ...

My dog could've beaten Carter, easily (and he's not the brightest dog either).
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Rowan
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« Reply #915 on: May 30, 2009, 09:12:15 am »

I love how liberals hate Reagan, but always want to compare themselves to him.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #916 on: May 30, 2009, 12:16:26 pm »

I love how liberals hate Reagan, but always want to compare themselves to him.

We may have despised much of what Ronald Reagan stood for, but we find his techniques more effective -- and less troublesome -- than those of Dubya.
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GLPman
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« Reply #917 on: May 30, 2009, 12:53:02 pm »

I love how liberals hate Reagan, but always want to compare themselves to him.

You hit the nail right on the head.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #918 on: May 30, 2009, 05:08:10 pm »

I love how liberals hate Reagan, but always want to compare themselves to him.

Well, they hated Goldwater too but they have no problem admitting that they copied his tactics.
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Lunar
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« Reply #919 on: May 30, 2009, 05:09:46 pm »

I love how liberals hate Reagan, but always want to compare themselves to him.

Why not?  It's hard to deny that he was a successful politician that inspired a lot of people, was an effective communicator for his beliefs, and, despite being an ideologue, and won hella electoral votes what WHAAAT
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officepark
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« Reply #920 on: May 31, 2009, 11:20:07 am »

I love how liberals hate Reagan, but always want to compare themselves to him.

You hit the nail right on the head.
^^^^
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Lunar
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« Reply #921 on: May 31, 2009, 11:46:59 am »

thanks for another insightful contribution
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Rowan
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« Reply #922 on: May 31, 2009, 11:49:08 am »

thanks for another insightful contribution

Agreeing with my posts is always insightful. Smiley
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Devilman88
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« Reply #923 on: May 31, 2009, 01:11:49 pm »

I went back and will show the trends month by month of Obama's approval ratings. (Green approve, Blue Disapprove)

January 09





February 09





March 09




April 09





May 09


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Badger
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« Reply #924 on: June 01, 2009, 07:32:57 am »

I love how liberals hate Reagan, but always want to compare themselves to him.

You mean the same way conservative politicians compare themselves with FDR, Truman and JFK?
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