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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016229 times)
The Vorlon
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« Reply #9125 on: November 24, 2011, 01:02:18 pm »
« edited: November 24, 2011, 01:08:21 pm by The Vorlon »


Please give this President some credit for the end of the decline, if nothing more than credit for not making things worse and for promoting some gimmicks to stop the economic bleeding.  


That is actually a matter of some debate.

Obama has essentially slow walked the housing crisis, he has made it harder for the banks for foreclose, but he has put very little of actual substance on the table to actually fix the problem.

I would also note that according to the Director of the Congressional Budget office, that the net effect of Obama's "stimulus" will be a slightly smaller economy and a lower GDP than if it had never been enacted. - Again, this is from the Director of the (semi) non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h_rDrd97sY&feature=player_embedded

Hundreds of billions of dollars in payoffs to teachers, labor unions, and crony capitalism friends, in exchange for a massively higher debt, larger debt servicing costs AND fewer jobs and a lower GDP at the end of it all is not exactly a matter that is universally regarded as beneficial.


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J. J.
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« Reply #9126 on: November 28, 2011, 10:13:56 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%.

Disapprove 54%.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%.

I'll start with the changes tomorrow.


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J. J.
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« Reply #9127 on: November 28, 2011, 07:37:59 pm »

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  44%

Disapprove:  47%

Gallup is useful for historical comparisons.  At 44% approval, Obama is easily able to survive, i.e. other presidents have won with equal or lower numbers.  The key will be if the number drops to the 40% or below mark consistently.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9128 on: November 29, 2011, 09:52:27 am »

Not yet up on the chart, but in the text:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, u.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9129 on: November 29, 2011, 04:41:44 pm »


Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  43%, -1.

Disapprove:  49%, +2.

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9130 on: November 29, 2011, 05:07:53 pm »

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9131 on: November 29, 2011, 08:46:56 pm »

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

At this point, 43% is survivable.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9132 on: November 29, 2011, 09:12:08 pm »
« Edited: November 29, 2011, 09:14:44 pm by Skill and Chance »

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

At this point, 43% is survivable.

I don't agree.  If he's running against Romney and he isn't back to up to 47-49% range by election day, he won't win. 
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #9133 on: November 29, 2011, 10:19:10 pm »

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #9134 on: November 29, 2011, 10:44:22 pm »

Perhaps he's feeling some political fallout from the failure of the debt committee.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9135 on: November 30, 2011, 09:06:11 am »

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

At this point, 43% is survivable.

I don't agree.  If he's running against Romney and he isn't back to up to 47-49% range by election day, he won't win. 


November 29, 2011 isn't Election Day 2012. 

Most presidents close the gap from their year before low; their numbers improve.  Even a weak candidate can improve 7-9 points.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9136 on: November 30, 2011, 09:39:40 am »
« Edited: November 30, 2011, 02:36:17 pm by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

Edited to fix typo.

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9137 on: November 30, 2011, 10:44:55 am »

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

All the recent economic news, especially with today's positive Europe action, has been good for him.  Consumer confidence is way up, unemployment claims below 400,000 for a month, Holiday consumer spending with the greatest year over year increase since 2007.  The only bad/neutral news has been last month's unemployment report, and that didn't seem to have an effect. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9138 on: November 30, 2011, 12:23:05 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 58%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.



Typo alert -- it is 43% approve, 56% disapprove.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9139 on: November 30, 2011, 02:32:04 pm »


Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  43%, u.

Disapprove:  49%, u.


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J. J.
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« Reply #9140 on: November 30, 2011, 02:37:35 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 58%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.



Thank you; I just fixed it.

Typo alert -- it is 43% approve, 56% disapprove.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #9141 on: November 30, 2011, 08:24:16 pm »

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9142 on: November 30, 2011, 10:15:16 pm »

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9143 on: December 01, 2011, 10:56:06 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

I would be watching to see if Strongly Disapprove consistently equals Approve.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #9144 on: December 01, 2011, 01:25:33 pm »

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.

That's initial claims per week.

It was above 400,000 today.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9145 on: December 01, 2011, 04:01:02 pm »

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.

That's initial claims per week.

It was above 400,000 today.

Right, but 400,000 is roughly the "people sense improvement" level for that variable.  It did rise again, but it has averaged below 400,000 over several weeks.  The last time that happened was in Jan and Feb when we had roughly 200K job growth for the month.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #9146 on: December 01, 2011, 04:11:48 pm »

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

Very little, if any, real change...

A lot of the changes in RCP and other averages is just polls more favorable to Obama (Pew, CBS, Ipsos, etc) rolling in and out or the average...

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had a few odd runs.  I wonder if there is some issue with samples getting out of sync or something.  Both Rasmussen and Gallup buy their raw survey calling lists from the same supplier (Survey Sample International) and I sometimes think there may be some glitch there...

Obama is at the upper end of the 40-45 band for approval, and 50% ish disapproval..

Not good, but not dead in the water either...
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9147 on: December 01, 2011, 04:16:48 pm »

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

Very little, if any, real change...

A lot of the changes in RCP and other averages is just polls more favorable to Obama (Pew, CBS, Ipsos, etc) rolling in and out or the average...

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had a few odd runs.  I wonder if there is some issue with samples getting out of sync or something.  Both Rasmussen and Gallup buy their raw survey calling lists from the same supplier (Survey Sample International) and I sometimes think there may be some glitch there...

Obama is at the upper end of the 40-45 band for approval, and 50% ish disapproval..

Not good, but not dead in the water either...

Well he could still be following a delayed Reagan path where good economic news props him back up over 50 by late winter and he stays there.  This assumes that Europe stabilizes and the recent uptick in employment and consumer confidence accelerates.

Other than that, or something particularly heroic in foreign policy, I don't know how he gets out of the 42% strong disapproval rut.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #9148 on: December 01, 2011, 05:59:53 pm »


Well he could still be following a delayed Reagan path where good economic news props him back up over 50 by late winter and he stays there.  This assumes that Europe stabilizes and the recent uptick in employment and consumer confidence accelerates.

Other than that, or something particularly heroic in foreign policy, I don't know how he gets out of the 42% strong disapproval rut.

Can't see where an economic uptick comes from though.

The Euro zone, even assuming an optimistic scenario where it doesn't implode, will certainly not be an engine of growth.

China is wobbly, Japan is, well, Japan...

The overhang of the housing bubble is still huge.  ObamaCare is an unknown.  The EuroZone remains a ticking time bomb. China is massively overbuilt and their economy is waaay short of enough internal demand to be self sustaining.

 I just don't see where the investment and risk taking need to jump start things comes from.

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J. J.
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« Reply #9149 on: December 01, 2011, 06:54:34 pm »


Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  42%, -1.

Disapprove:  50%, +1.
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