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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 965543 times)
Earthling
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« Reply #9550 on: March 03, 2012, 01:24:52 pm »
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Nonsens, I am not saying that, you are. By ignoring the other polls that are much better for Obama.
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« Reply #9551 on: March 03, 2012, 02:11:00 pm »
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Gallup didn't conduct daily or weekly polling in 1948 (or 1988). So it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. Your theory also suffers from a small sample size of eight or ten elections, depending on your definition of incumbent, and only two or three incumbents having been defeated.
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« Reply #9552 on: March 03, 2012, 02:27:28 pm »
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How many more times must JJ be proven wrong before people stop taking him seriously?
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« Reply #9553 on: March 03, 2012, 02:28:58 pm »
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How many more times must JJ be proven wrong before people stop taking him seriously?

Does anyone here still take him seriously?
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Oakvale
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« Reply #9554 on: March 03, 2012, 03:46:01 pm »
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BREAKING!



I don't know why I'm bothering to point this out, but the number of Presidential elections featuring an incumbent since approval polling began is so tiny that you can't actually draw meaningful conclusions from the numbers.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9555 on: March 03, 2012, 03:47:56 pm »
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Nonsens, I am not saying that, you are. By ignoring the other polls that are much better for Obama.

No. Gallup is the only one where we can make a poll to poll comparison.  Scott Rasmussen wasn't polling when he was 12.

You only need take the numbers seriously.
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J. J.

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« Reply #9556 on: March 03, 2012, 07:30:28 pm »
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46% baby!
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J. J.
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« Reply #9557 on: March 03, 2012, 07:37:49 pm »
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How many more times must JJ be proven wrong before people stop taking him seriously?

We can look at the first 3-4 pages of this thread and see how wrong everyone else was.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9558 on: March 03, 2012, 07:47:06 pm »
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I still don't understand why in 2012 people are looking anywhere else besides Rasmussen. They predicted 50/50 correctly in 2004 and only missed 4 states in 2008. Each election since their existence in 2003 they have been the most accurate. I know warm and fuzzy hope is nice for those who don't lead in polls, but let's grow up and be serious. Let's get real and seek what has been the standard bearer in recent elections. Most other polling places have lost their ways or become outdated.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #9559 on: March 03, 2012, 07:55:14 pm »
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I still don't understand why in 2012 people are looking anywhere else besides Rasmussen. They predicted 50/50 correctly in 2004 and only missed 4 states in 2008. Each election since their existence in 2003 they have been the most accurate. I know warm and fuzzy hope is nice for those who don't lead in polls, but let's grow up and be serious. Let's get real and seek what has been the standard bearer in recent elections. Most other polling places have lost their ways or become outdated.

Rasmussen was the worst pollster of the 2010 midterms.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9560 on: March 03, 2012, 07:58:59 pm »
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I still don't understand why in 2012 people are looking anywhere else besides Rasmussen. They predicted 50/50 correctly in 2004 and only missed 4 states in 2008. Each election since their existence in 2003 they have been the most accurate. I know warm and fuzzy hope is nice for those who don't lead in polls, but let's grow up and be serious. Let's get real and seek what has been the standard bearer in recent elections. Most other polling places have lost their ways or become outdated.

Rasmussen was the worst pollster of the 2010 midterms.

But very good nationally.

Rasmussen, however, simply does not have the available data for historic comparisons.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9561 on: March 03, 2012, 08:00:25 pm »
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I still don't understand why in 2012 people are looking anywhere else besides Rasmussen. They predicted 50/50 correctly in 2004 and only missed 4 states in 2008. Each election since their existence in 2003 they have been the most accurate. I know warm and fuzzy hope is nice for those who don't lead in polls, but let's grow up and be serious. Let's get real and seek what has been the standard bearer in recent elections. Most other polling places have lost their ways or become outdated.

Rasmussen was the worst pollster of the 2010 midterms.

No the tea party senate candidates lost steam and momentum at the end and so the numbers from the entire year as a whole seemed off. The final results and final polling were closer. Midterm Elections are tougher to predict to begin with because of the unpredictable turnout. What do you mean by worst?
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Oakvale
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« Reply #9562 on: March 03, 2012, 08:04:11 pm »
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What do you mean by worst?

...the least accurate? Huh
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« Reply #9563 on: March 03, 2012, 08:06:29 pm »
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I still don't understand why in 2012 people are looking anywhere else besides Rasmussen. They predicted 50/50 correctly in 2004 and only missed 4 states in 2008. Each election since their existence in 2003 they have been the most accurate. I know warm and fuzzy hope is nice for those who don't lead in polls, but let's grow up and be serious. Let's get real and seek what has been the standard bearer in recent elections. Most other polling places have lost their ways or become outdated.

Rasmussen was the worst pollster of the 2010 midterms.

No the tea party senate candidates lost steam and momentum at the end and so the numbers from the entire year as a whole seemed off. The final results and final polling were closer. Midterm Elections are tougher to predict to begin with because of the unpredictable turnout. What do you mean by worst?

When polling numbers were compared to the actual result, Rasmussen had the worst average error and a heavy bias toward GOP candidates in the midterms. It was not an issue of "losing steam." Rasmussen missed Hawaii by a margin of 40 points.

Nate Silver composed a good piece here. We also had an Atlas member table all of the Rasmussen polls against the final results and again, there was a large deviation.

Time will tell to see if he's back on the ball on 2012.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9564 on: March 03, 2012, 08:06:52 pm »
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What do you mean by worst?

...the least accurate? Huh

They've been much more accurate in both presidential elections since their existence and seem to be the most modern source. Maybe they were off in 2010 because I remember expecting 50-53 senate seats.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9565 on: March 04, 2012, 09:48:13 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  42%, +1.

Yesterday, I had Strongly Disapprove even at 40.  It had gone up to 41.
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J. J.

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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9566 on: March 04, 2012, 10:07:28 am »
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Nonsens, I am not saying that, you are. By ignoring the other polls that are much better for Obama.

No. Gallup is the only one where we can make a poll to poll comparison.  Scott Rasmussen wasn't polling when he was 12.

You only need take the numbers seriously.

J.J. you still have not given any creditable reason why a 1948 Gallup poll should be more comparable to a 2012 Gallup poll than to a 2012 Rasmussen poll.

It's like saying a 1948 Ford F-1 pickup truck has more in common with a 2012 Ford F-150 than a 2012 Toyota Tundra, when the only thing an F-1 and an F-150  can be shown to have in common is the name plate.
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« Reply #9567 on: March 04, 2012, 10:17:53 am »
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Nonsens, I am not saying that, you are. By ignoring the other polls that are much better for Obama.

No. Gallup is the only one where we can make a poll to poll comparison.  Scott Rasmussen wasn't polling when he was 12.

You only need take the numbers seriously.

J.J. you still have not given any creditable reason why a 1948 Gallup poll should be more comparable to a 2012 Gallup poll than to a 2012 Rasmussen poll.

It's like saying a 1948 Ford F-1 pickup truck has more in common with a 2012 Ford F-150 than a 2012 Toyota Tundra, when the only thing an F-1 and an F-150  can be shown to have in common is the name plate.

As pointed out, it is still the only one we have.  Gallup is, IIRC, not using robots. 
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
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« Reply #9568 on: March 04, 2012, 03:41:10 pm »
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It doesn't look like Gallup posted today.
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J. J.

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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9569 on: March 05, 2012, 02:32:16 am »
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Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll:

50% Approve
45% Disapprove
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J. J.
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« Reply #9570 on: March 05, 2012, 03:07:15 pm »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +1.

It just could be a bad sample.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
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« Reply #9571 on: March 05, 2012, 03:09:34 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  45%, -3

Disapprove:  48%, +2

It could be a bad sample.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9572 on: March 05, 2012, 03:26:32 pm »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +1.

It just could be a bad sample.

45% won't win an election. Someone has their work cut out or they'll lose to Romeny, Santorum, the Easter Bunny, or a potato.
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« Reply #9573 on: March 05, 2012, 03:36:15 pm »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +1.

It just could be a bad sample.

45% won't win an election. Someone has their work cut out or they'll lose to Romeny, Santorum, the Easter Bunny, or a potato.


Yet, with 45% approval, the president, in this very same tracking, currently leads all four Republican contenders by margins ranging from 2% (Romney & Paul) and 8% (Gingrich). I'm not too worried given that even in recent weeks, he has occasionally trailed them (bar Gingrich, IIRC)

Of course, it would seem that the stronger the president's approvals the greater the margin by which he leads
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« Reply #9574 on: March 05, 2012, 03:36:45 pm »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +1.

It just could be a bad sample.

45% won't win an election. Someone has their work cut out or they'll lose to Romeny, Santorum, the Easter Bunny, or a potato.


Yet, with 45% approval, the president, in this very same tracking, currently leads all four Republican contenders by margins between 2 and 8. I'm not too worried given that even in recent weeks, he has occasionally trailed, certainly against Romney, possibly against Santorum

It is Mar.5 and the election is months away. Reagan trailed in both elections and so did Bush. I don't know of a single president in modern times that would lose an election in March of the election year because the public is still unfamiliar with their opponents. I know I'm a Republican and excited about the 45% which makes you mad but please try take into account how undecided voters have actually voted in elections rather than how they're polled on Mar.5, 2012 with the election 8 months away.
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