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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1028431 times)
Phony Moderate
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« Reply #9575 on: March 05, 2012, 03:48:37 pm »

but please try take into account how undecided voters have actually voted in elections

Yeah, they always vote for the non-incumbent. Just ask President Kerry.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #9576 on: March 05, 2012, 03:51:37 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +1.

It just could be a bad sample.

45% won't win an election. Someone has their work cut out or they'll lose to Romeny, Santorum, the Easter Bunny, or a potato.


Yet, with 45% approval, the president, in this very same tracking, currently leads all four Republican contenders by margins between 2 and 8. I'm not too worried given that even in recent weeks, he has occasionally trailed, certainly against Romney, possibly against Santorum

It is Mar.5 and the election is months away. Reagan trailed in both elections and so did Bush. I don't know of a single president in modern times that would lose an election in March of the election year because the public is still unfamiliar with their opponents. I know I'm a Republican and excited about the 45% which makes you mad but please try take into account how undecided voters have actually voted in elections rather than how they're polled on Mar.5, 2012 with the election 8 months away.

Much can and will happen between now and Nov. 6, for better, I pray, or worse
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9577 on: March 05, 2012, 03:52:43 pm »

but please try take into account how undecided voters have actually voted in elections

Yeah, they always vote for the non-incumbent. Just ask President Kerry.


That they did! Bush won the undecided voters who approved of his job as president and Kerry won the ones who did not approve. Fortunately for Bush his approval rating was 54% on election night and didn't even need that to get elected. Clinton was at 54% as well I believe and got just over 48 or 49%. The undecideds went for Perot and Dole. With a 45% approval rating though, Obama is much less likely to win than Bush in 2004 who was in the low 50's.
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ajb
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« Reply #9578 on: March 05, 2012, 04:00:18 pm »

Some sample approval ratings for George W. Bush in 2004:

3/1-7/04    TIPP/IBD/CSM    44    46
3/9-11/04    Amer. Res. Group    45    48    
3/29-4/3/04    TIPP/IBD/CSM    43    48
4/1-4/04    Pew    43    47    
4/8-9/04    Newsweek    41    55
4/19-5/12/04    Pew    44    44
5/3-4/04    Pew    44    48
5/3-6/04    Amer. Res. Group    45    49
5/11/04    CBS    44    49
5/13-14/04    Newsweek    42    52
5/18-24/04    Quinnipiac University    45    50
5/20-23/04    CBS    41    52

And so on. Bush had a 44-48 approval rating as late as Oct. 15 in the Pew and CBS/NYT polls.

http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_detail.cfm?allRate=True&presidentName=Bush#.T1UnRvVXOuI
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #9579 on: March 05, 2012, 04:08:36 pm »

Some sample approval ratings for George W. Bush in 2004:

3/1-7/04    TIPP/IBD/CSM    44    46
3/9-11/04    Amer. Res. Group    45    48    
3/29-4/3/04    TIPP/IBD/CSM    43    48
4/1-4/04    Pew    43    47    
4/8-9/04    Newsweek    41    55
4/19-5/12/04    Pew    44    44
5/3-4/04    Pew    44    48
5/3-6/04    Amer. Res. Group    45    49
5/11/04    CBS    44    49
5/13-14/04    Newsweek    42    52
5/18-24/04    Quinnipiac University    45    50
5/20-23/04    CBS    41    52

And so on. Bush had a 44-48 approval rating as late as Oct. 15 in the Pew and CBS/NYT polls.

http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_detail.cfm?allRate=True&presidentName=Bush#.T1UnRvVXOuI

Yeah, Tidewater_Wave's theory only works if you choose to view March as a benchmark. In May of 2004, Bush's approval ratings were almost exactly the same as Obama's current approval ratings.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9580 on: March 05, 2012, 04:10:43 pm »

Some sample approval ratings for George W. Bush in 2004:

3/1-7/04    TIPP/IBD/CSM    44    46
3/9-11/04    Amer. Res. Group    45    48    
3/29-4/3/04    TIPP/IBD/CSM    43    48
4/1-4/04    Pew    43    47    
4/8-9/04    Newsweek    41    55
4/19-5/12/04    Pew    44    44
5/3-4/04    Pew    44    48
5/3-6/04    Amer. Res. Group    45    49
5/11/04    CBS    44    49
5/13-14/04    Newsweek    42    52
5/18-24/04    Quinnipiac University    45    50
5/20-23/04    CBS    41    52

And so on. Bush had a 44-48 approval rating as late as Oct. 15 in the Pew and CBS/NYT polls.

http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_detail.cfm?allRate=True&presidentName=Bush#.T1UnRvVXOuI

Yeah, Tidewater_Wave's theory only works if you choose to view March as a benchmark. In May of 2004, Bush's approval ratings were almost exactly the same as Obama's current approval ratings.

Ah, that's part of the problem.  Obama may not have cratered yet.
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ajb
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« Reply #9581 on: March 05, 2012, 04:16:15 pm »

but please try take into account how undecided voters have actually voted in elections

Yeah, they always vote for the non-incumbent. Just ask President Kerry.


That they did! Bush won the undecided voters who approved of his job as president and Kerry won the ones who did not approve. Fortunately for Bush his approval rating was 54% on election night and didn't even need that to get elected. Clinton was at 54% as well I believe and got just over 48 or 49%. The undecideds went for Perot and Dole. With a 45% approval rating though, Obama is much less likely to win than Bush in 2004 who was in the low 50's.

If you look at the 21 polls the Roper Center has for March 2004 which list approval ratings for George W. Bush, the simple arithmetic mean is 48.6 approval-45.4 disapproval. Obama's approval rating in the last 21 polls in the pollster.com database? 48.6-46.8.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/obama-job-approval#!


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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9582 on: March 05, 2012, 04:22:59 pm »

Some sample approval ratings for George W. Bush in 2004:

3/1-7/04    TIPP/IBD/CSM    44    46
3/9-11/04    Amer. Res. Group    45    48    
3/29-4/3/04    TIPP/IBD/CSM    43    48
4/1-4/04    Pew    43    47    
4/8-9/04    Newsweek    41    55
4/19-5/12/04    Pew    44    44
5/3-4/04    Pew    44    48
5/3-6/04    Amer. Res. Group    45    49
5/11/04    CBS    44    49
5/13-14/04    Newsweek    42    52
5/18-24/04    Quinnipiac University    45    50
5/20-23/04    CBS    41    52

And so on. Bush had a 44-48 approval rating as late as Oct. 15 in the Pew and CBS/NYT polls.

http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_detail.cfm?allRate=True&presidentName=Bush#.T1UnRvVXOuI

Yeah, Tidewater_Wave's theory only works if you choose to view March as a benchmark. In May of 2004, Bush's approval ratings were almost exactly the same as Obama's current approval ratings.

You didn't use Rasmussen. Rasmussen predicted every state right that year. Also, have you ever looked at his approval rating of 54% from the exit polls? Not early exit polls, but actual exit polls. That would be more accurate considering that it deals with actual votes as opposed to polls. Approval ratings don't matter until the night of the election and his was 53-54% based on exit polls. Obama has some jumping up to do.
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ajb
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« Reply #9583 on: March 05, 2012, 04:24:43 pm »

Approval ratings don't matter until the night of the election and his was 53-54% based on exit polls. Obama has some jumping up to do.
Thank you.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9584 on: March 05, 2012, 09:42:00 pm »

Approval ratings don't matter until the night of the election and his was 53-54% based on exit polls. Obama has some jumping up to do.
Thank you.

It's true, alot can happen. Right now I'll predict 51-49 one way or the other and it comes down to Ohio lol only because we're so far out.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9585 on: March 06, 2012, 09:34:27 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +3.

Disapprove 51%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, -2.

A bad sample dropped out.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9586 on: March 06, 2012, 01:11:04 pm »


Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  43%, -2.

Disapprove:  48%, u.

It could be a bad sample.
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #9587 on: March 06, 2012, 01:57:01 pm »

And some wonder why some don't take Gallup seriously anymore.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9588 on: March 06, 2012, 02:18:29 pm »

And some wonder why some don't take Gallup seriously anymore.

If you follow Gallup daily, you would know that this is normal.  Gallup have a lot of variation. 
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #9589 on: March 06, 2012, 02:27:00 pm »

When rasmussen Is more favorabilty for Obama than Gallup you know why some are calling
Gallup a joke today.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9590 on: March 06, 2012, 02:48:16 pm »

When rasmussen Is more favorabilty for Obama than Gallup you know why some are calling
Gallup a joke today.

Actually, I prefer Rasmussen, but you will find a number of people calling it biased toward Republicans.

Gallup weekly is useful for historic comparisons.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9591 on: March 06, 2012, 10:22:12 pm »

I stick to Rasmussen and always have since it started when regarding the debate over polling at the national level. Individual states is different for me because it's not as often that the states are polled by each polling place. By following half of the polls on individual states it allows for more debate and analyzation. Did anyone see that Romney and Obama are very even on major issues in Ramsussen today?
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J. J.
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« Reply #9592 on: March 07, 2012, 09:40:37 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, -1.

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J. J.
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« Reply #9593 on: March 07, 2012, 01:16:34 pm »



Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  44%, +1.

Disapprove:  47%, -1.

The weekly number has held study at 45% for three weeks in a row.

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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9594 on: March 07, 2012, 04:31:00 pm »

When rasmussen Is more favorabilty for Obama than Gallup you know why some are calling
Gallup a joke today.

Actually, I prefer Rasmussen, but you will find a number of people calling it biased toward Republicans.

Gallup weekly is useful for historic comparisons.

Favoring whoever is fine as long as its accurate and Rasmussen has proven to be that.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9595 on: March 08, 2012, 09:59:19 am »
« Edited: March 09, 2012, 09:58:30 am by J. J. »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, +1.

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ajb
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« Reply #9596 on: March 08, 2012, 01:20:38 pm »

Today's Gallup:

Obama Approval
48% (+4)
Obama Disapproval
44% (-3)
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J. J.
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« Reply #9597 on: March 08, 2012, 02:20:46 pm »

Today's Gallup:

Obama Approval
48% (+4)
Obama Disapproval
44% (-3)


http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

It's Gallup daily results; don't worry, it will change soon.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9598 on: March 08, 2012, 08:30:21 pm »

Today's Gallup:

Obama Approval
48% (+4)
Obama Disapproval
44% (-3)


http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

It's Gallup daily results; don't worry, it will change soon.

I do find it kind of amusing, you rarely comment when he spikes upwards... but always the doom-sayer when he drops...
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J. J.
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« Reply #9599 on: March 08, 2012, 08:47:49 pm »

Today's Gallup:

Obama Approval
48% (+4)
Obama Disapproval
44% (-3)


http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

It's Gallup daily results; don't worry, it will change soon.

I do find it kind of amusing, you rarely comment when he spikes upwards... but always the doom-sayer when he drops...

I actually make the same comment both ways on the daily.  Gallup's daily are noted for variation and strange samples:


Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  43%, -2.

Disapprove:  48%, u.

It could be a bad sample.


or

And some wonder why some don't take Gallup seriously anymore.

If you follow Gallup daily, you would know that this is normal.  Gallup have a lot of variation. 

The weekly, which has had a range of 5 points since early December, is the one that I use for historic comparisons.  That is the one that that focus on when commenting on his standing.
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