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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 999899 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #200 on: March 04, 2009, 12:53:21 am »

WSJ/NBC poll (February 26-March 1, 2009):

60% Approve
26% Disapprove
14% Undecided

68% Have positive feelings about Obama
19% Have negative feelings about Obama
13% Have neutral feelings about Obama

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/090303_NBC-WSJ_poll.pdf
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« Reply #201 on: March 04, 2009, 12:55:47 am »

RACIST JOKES: “Nearly one in six Tennesseans has told a joke about Barack Obama’s...even though only 15 percent of Tennesseans say they would find such a joke funny.”

lol

The most hilarious thing is that "nearly one in six" and "15%" are pretty much the same number. Some misleading reporting of the numbers...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #202 on: March 04, 2009, 12:59:46 am »

New York (Marist Poll)

68% Excellent/Good
28% Fair/Poor

This survey of 1,045 registered voters in New York State was conducted on February 25th and February 26th, 2009.  Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections.  Results are statistically significant at ±3%.  There are 480 Democrats and 314 Republicans.  Results for these subsamples are statistically significant at ±4.5% and ±5.5%, respectively.  The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/nyspolls/NY090303.htm
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #203 on: March 04, 2009, 01:14:02 am »
« Edited: March 05, 2009, 04:44:06 am by pbrower2a »

Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.
Approval ratings just came in for Georgia, a swing state into which Obama put much effort until September (when the GOP gave a scare):



... and we get new numbers, if no 'new' states polled Declines, largely, but not huge ones or where one wouldn't expect them.

It looks as the GOP has its work cut out for itself if it is to achieve anything in the 2012 election. Note that Obama barely won Florida, and his approval rating in Florida approaches 70%. Right now it seems that any Republican who had to challenge Obama today for the Presidency would be the new Alf Landon... with apologies to Landon in case the personalities aren't the same.

Mercifully for the GOP, the election still isn't being held today. 



Adjustments made. Yellow indicates approval under 50%. 


... If Obama is above 50% in Tennessee, then that suggests that the GOP has its work cut out.
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Alcon
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« Reply #204 on: March 04, 2009, 01:59:27 am »
« Edited: March 04, 2009, 02:03:24 am by Alcon »

RACIST JOKES: “Nearly one in six Tennesseans has told a joke about Barack Obama’s...even though only 15 percent of Tennesseans say they would find such a joke funny.”

lol

The most hilarious thing is that "nearly one in six" and "15%" are pretty much the same number. Some misleading reporting of the numbers...

That's exactly what I was lol'ing at Tongue  In fact, ostensibly the "not funny" one is likely to be higher, since 15% is closer to one in seven.  But then there's rounding...

Still, funny.
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Saxwsylvania
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« Reply #205 on: March 04, 2009, 02:04:13 am »


Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

... If Obama is above 50% in Tennessee, then that suggests that the GOP has its work cut out.

Dude.  It's called a honeymoon.  We're less than two months into Obama's term.  Quit being a moron.  When it's this time in 2012 and these are Obama's numbers, then you can gloat.  Until then, regard Obama's approval as mere trivia.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #206 on: March 04, 2009, 02:10:23 pm »

New California Field Poll:

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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #207 on: March 04, 2009, 09:26:54 pm »

Texas (Rasmussen)

Link

Approve 50% (37% strongly) / Disapprove 49% (40% strongly)

Dave
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #208 on: March 05, 2009, 01:03:55 am »

Texas (Rasmussen)

Link

Approve 50% (37% strongly) / Disapprove 49% (40% strongly)

Dave

Bottom Line: Obama will not win TX in 2012 ...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #209 on: March 05, 2009, 03:55:27 am »

Texas (Rasmussen)

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Approve 50% (37% strongly) / Disapprove 49% (40% strongly)

Dave

Bottom Line: Obama will not win TX in 2012 ...

He can, but some things have to change.

The last Democratic Presidential nominee to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Bill Clinton's ideology was much like that of Jimmy Carter and was even from a neighboring State and did not win. (All right, the Arkansas/Texas border is short by Texas standards... but Hope, Arkansas is very close to the Texas/Arkansas state line.   

Should Obama win Texas, he wins it in at least an Eisenhower-scale landslide.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #210 on: March 05, 2009, 04:44:49 am »

Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.
Approval ratings just came in for Georgia, a swing state into which Obama put much effort until September (when the GOP gave a scare):



... and we get new numbers, if no 'new' states polled Declines, largely, but not huge ones or where one wouldn't expect them.

It looks as the GOP has its work cut out for itself if it is to achieve anything in the 2012 election. Note that Obama barely won Florida, and his approval rating in Florida approaches 70%. Right now it seems that any Republican who had to challenge Obama today for the Presidency would be the new Alf Landon... with apologies to Landon in case the personalities aren't the same.

Mercifully for the GOP, the election still isn't being held today. 



Adjustments made. Yellow indicates approval under 50%. 


... If Obama is above 50% in Tennessee, then that suggests that the GOP has its work cut out.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #211 on: March 05, 2009, 09:13:55 am »

Still stunned at no polling of Indiana. It goes Democratic for the first time in 44 years and no one polls it post-election. Honestly.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #212 on: March 05, 2009, 09:46:13 am »

Still stunned at no polling of Indiana. It goes Democratic for the first time in 44 years and no one polls it post-election. Honestly.

If it makes you happy:

I´ve just sent E-mails to Rasmussen, PPP, R2000, SurveyUSA, Selzer & Co. and Howey Gauge with a request to poll Indiana, or if they have any plans to do so ... Wink

The problem nowadays is that with the bad economy, less newspapers are willing to commission costly polls ...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #213 on: March 05, 2009, 09:51:18 am »

Still stunned at no polling of Indiana. It goes Democratic for the first time in 44 years and no one polls it post-election. Honestly.

If it makes you happy:

I´ve just sent E-mails to Rasmussen, PPP, R2000, SurveyUSA, Selzer & Co. and Howey Gauge with a request to poll Indiana, or if they have any plans to do so ... Wink

The problem nowadays is that with the bad economy, less newspapers are willing to commission costly polls ...

Sh!t, I forgot Zogby !
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #214 on: March 05, 2009, 10:25:03 am »

Quick response from Del Ali of Research2000:

"Probably not until June or July when either WISH-TV or the Daily Kos commissions a poll for Indiana. I think this would be an interesting poll.
 
take care - Del"

PS: With "interesting poll" he's referring to my request that they should poll Obama vs. Romney/Huckabee/Palin/Jindal for an early look on 2012 in the state, as well as Obama's approval rating in Indiana and the perceptions of IN voters on the economy.
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« Reply #215 on: March 05, 2009, 11:45:20 am »

Texas (Rasmussen)

Link

Approve 50% (37% strongly) / Disapprove 49% (40% strongly)

Dave

Bottom Line: Obama will not win TX in 2012 ...

He can, but some things have to change.

The last Democratic Presidential nominee to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Bill Clinton's ideology was much like that of Jimmy Carter and was even from a neighboring State and did not win. (All right, the Arkansas/Texas border is short by Texas standards... but Hope, Arkansas is very close to the Texas/Arkansas state line.   

Should Obama win Texas, he wins it in at least an Eisenhower-scale landslide.

While I think it is relatively unlikely that Obama will win Texas in '12, that poll is far from a sign that he can't.  Historically, there has been a very very strong correlation between where an incumbent's approval rating is in relation to the 50% mark and their margin of victory/defeat.  Barring a remarkably strong or poor candidate on the other side, it's basically a referendum on the incumbent.  Bush's approval rating in exit polls in 2004 was 53%, he won by 3 points.  If you split the (somewhat large number of) undecideds evenly, Clinton's approval rating in polls right before the 96 election is almost exactly 58.5%, and he won by 8 1/2 points.  Again, I wouldn't put any money on it, but if Obama is at a high-ebb of popularity in November 2012, he certainly CAN win TX.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #216 on: March 05, 2009, 12:13:38 pm »

Also interesting... Colorado and Arizona. Both are legitimate swing states, even if they gave near-10% margins for the winners of those states.
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Rowan
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« Reply #217 on: March 05, 2009, 12:37:50 pm »

Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #218 on: March 05, 2009, 01:46:59 pm »

Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?

Maybe by a point or two.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #219 on: March 05, 2009, 02:44:17 pm »

Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?

Maybe by a point or two.

That's about right I think. 65-70% Approve, 30-35% Disapprove (if the undecideds are properly allocated as well) - with Rasmussen the outlier.

Also, the latest Fox News Poll (the newest, conducted March 3-4 among 900 RV):

63% Approve (+3)
26% Disapprove (nc)

What do you think the nation's economy needs more of right now -- the economic policies of Ronald Reagan or the economic policies of Barack Obama?

Obama: 49%
Reagan: 40%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/030509_Poll.pdf
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Rowan
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« Reply #220 on: March 05, 2009, 03:11:35 pm »

Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?

Maybe by a point or two.

That's about right I think. 65-70% Approve, 30-35% Disapprove (if the undecideds are properly allocated as well) - with Rasmussen the outlier.

Also, the latest Fox News Poll (the newest, conducted March 3-4 among 900 RV):

63% Approve (+3)
26% Disapprove (nc)

What do you think the nation's economy needs more of right now -- the economic policies of Ronald Reagan or the economic policies of Barack Obama?

Obama: 49%
Reagan: 40%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/030509_Poll.pdf

What about Gallup at 62%? Cook Political at 57%? NBC/WSJ at 60%? I think its more in the 60-63% range, rather than 65%-70%.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #221 on: March 05, 2009, 03:16:18 pm »

Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?

Maybe by a point or two.

That's about right I think. 65-70% Approve, 30-35% Disapprove (if the undecideds are properly allocated as well) - with Rasmussen the outlier.

Also, the latest Fox News Poll (the newest, conducted March 3-4 among 900 RV):

63% Approve (+3)
26% Disapprove (nc)

What do you think the nation's economy needs more of right now -- the economic policies of Ronald Reagan or the economic policies of Barack Obama?

Obama: 49%
Reagan: 40%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/030509_Poll.pdf

What about Gallup at 62%? Cook Political at 57%? NBC/WSJ at 60%? I think its more in the 60-63% range, rather than 65%-70%.

Those polls have all 10-25% Undecideds. In fact, no poll besides Rasmussen has ever shown Obama's disapproval higher than 29%. If you allocate the Undecides by 6/4 for Obama, you are approaching 70% Approval.
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Rowan
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« Reply #222 on: March 05, 2009, 03:26:13 pm »

Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?

Maybe by a point or two.

That's about right I think. 65-70% Approve, 30-35% Disapprove (if the undecideds are properly allocated as well) - with Rasmussen the outlier.

Also, the latest Fox News Poll (the newest, conducted March 3-4 among 900 RV):

63% Approve (+3)
26% Disapprove (nc)

What do you think the nation's economy needs more of right now -- the economic policies of Ronald Reagan or the economic policies of Barack Obama?

Obama: 49%
Reagan: 40%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/030509_Poll.pdf

What about Gallup at 62%? Cook Political at 57%? NBC/WSJ at 60%? I think its more in the 60-63% range, rather than 65%-70%.

Those polls have all 10-25% Undecideds. In fact, no poll besides Rasmussen has ever shown Obama's disapproval higher than 29%. If you allocate the Undecides by 6/4 for Obama, you are approaching 70% Approval.

You can't just allocate undecideds like that. In fact, if they aren't willing to say they approve of Obama, I'm willing to bet they are more likely to disapprove of him.
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Holmes
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« Reply #223 on: March 05, 2009, 03:27:26 pm »

That's like saying the undecideds broke way more for McCain than Obama last November, which wasn't the case obviously.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #224 on: March 06, 2009, 01:12:37 am »

Obama's Approval Rating in Germany, according to the monthly "Deutschlandtrend" by Infratest-dimap for the TV station ARD (1000 Germans interviewed, March 2-3):

74% Approve
2% Disapprove
24% Undecided

http://www.infratest-dimap.de/download/dt0902.pdf
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