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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 999496 times)
Nym90
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« Reply #425 on: April 08, 2009, 11:55:18 am »

New International Herald Tribune/Harris Interactive poll:

Italy: 86% Good, 5% Poor (+81)

Phil can't be too pleased about those numbers. Smiley
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #426 on: April 08, 2009, 12:02:49 pm »

Latest CNN Poll (1023 Adults, April 3-5):

66% Approve
30% Disapprove

Latest Pew Poll (1506 Adults, March 31-April 6):

61% Approve
26% Disapprove

Latest Rasmussen Tracking (1500 Likely Voters, April 5-7):

57% Approve
42% Disapprove

Latest Gallup Tracking (1500 Adults, April 5-7):

60% Approve
28% Disapprove
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #427 on: April 08, 2009, 12:27:11 pm »

Marist Poll (928 Registered Voters, April 1-3):

56% Approve
30% Disapprove

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us090401/Obama/Obama%20Approval%20Rating.htm
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #428 on: April 08, 2009, 01:05:37 pm »

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

He seems to have gotten some sort of EURO TRIP bump. That, or his approvals are stabilizing around 60%.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #429 on: April 08, 2009, 02:40:04 pm »

Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!
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Rowan
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« Reply #430 on: April 08, 2009, 02:56:25 pm »

Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #431 on: April 08, 2009, 02:57:58 pm »

Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats better than CBSNews 66% crap.

Rasmussen deflates it's numbers alot by using a ridiculous "likely voters" screen. We're three and ahalf years from the next Presidential election and a year and ahalf from a Congressional election, so there's no point to something like that.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #432 on: April 08, 2009, 03:01:46 pm »

New International Herald Tribune/Harris Interactive poll:

Italy: 86% Good, 5% Poor (+81)

Phil can't be too pleased about those numbers. Smiley

Oh, boy. The same country that adores Berlusconi. They just love their celebrities.

Italy is consistently one of Obama's "best countries," by the way. It's also one of the most right wing countries in all of Europe. Does that smell funny to anyone else?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #433 on: April 08, 2009, 03:37:52 pm »

Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.

Rasmussen got it right in 2000 and 2004. But his "likely voters" screen would have rejected as a "likely voter" someone under 22 who was actively involved in a campaign because that person had never voted in a Presidential election.  That screen proved unduly rigid in 2008. Obama wasn't Kerry, and 2008 was very different from 2004.

Although the young adult vote is capricious it is capricious in odd ways.   
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Rowan
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« Reply #434 on: April 08, 2009, 03:39:13 pm »

Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.

Rasmussen got it right in 2000 and 2004. But his "likely voters" screen would have rejected as a "likely voter" someone under 22 who was actively involved in a campaign because that person had never voted in a Presidential election.  That screen proved unduly rigid in 2008. Obama wasn't Kerry, and 2008 was very different from 2004.

Although the young adult vote is capricious it is capricious in odd ways.   

Uhh, Rasmussen nailed it in 2008.
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Lunar
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« Reply #435 on: April 08, 2009, 03:43:01 pm »

what's a likely voter right now anyway?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #436 on: April 08, 2009, 03:44:44 pm »

I have to agree that "likely voters" aren't a factor at this point.
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Rowan
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« Reply #437 on: April 08, 2009, 03:46:08 pm »

what's a likely voter right now anyway?

Someone likely to vote. Smiley
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Lunar
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« Reply #438 on: April 08, 2009, 03:52:23 pm »

what's a likely voter right now anyway?

Someone likely to vote. Smiley

in the last election or in 2012?  And Rasmussen lacks the magic powers necessary to come up with any kind of reasonable voter model four years before an election occurs
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Rowan
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« Reply #439 on: April 08, 2009, 03:54:25 pm »

what's a likely voter right now anyway?

Someone likely to vote. Smiley

in the last election or in 2012?  And Rasmussen lacks the magic powers necessary to come up with any kind of reasonable voter model four years before an election occurs

Don't underestimate Scotty. Who knows what his LV screen is.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #440 on: April 08, 2009, 04:01:46 pm »

Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.

Rasmussen got it right in 2000 and 2004. But his "likely voters" screen would have rejected as a "likely voter" someone under 22 who was actively involved in a campaign because that person had never voted in a Presidential election.  That screen proved unduly rigid in 2008. Obama wasn't Kerry, and 2008 was very different from 2004.

Although the young adult vote is capricious it is capricious in odd ways.   

Uhh, Rasmussen nailed it in 2008.

No...
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Rowan
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« Reply #441 on: April 08, 2009, 04:07:24 pm »

Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.

Rasmussen got it right in 2000 and 2004. But his "likely voters" screen would have rejected as a "likely voter" someone under 22 who was actively involved in a campaign because that person had never voted in a Presidential election.  That screen proved unduly rigid in 2008. Obama wasn't Kerry, and 2008 was very different from 2004.

Although the young adult vote is capricious it is capricious in odd ways.   

Uhh, Rasmussen nailed it in 2008.

No...

No? He had 52-46, the final result was 53-46.
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Lunar
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« Reply #442 on: April 08, 2009, 04:09:41 pm »

one of the biggest critiques of Rasmussen is that he uses far too tight LV screens way out before it's remotely possible to determine who the LV's are.  you should at least acknowledge this criticism if you are going to assert his superiority over other polls for an election four years away
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Rowan
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« Reply #443 on: April 08, 2009, 04:12:08 pm »

one of the biggest critiques of Rasmussen is that he uses far too tight LV screens way out before it's remotely possible to determine who the LV's are.  you should at least acknowledge this criticism if you are going to assert his superiority over other polls for an election four years away

I am no way saying that his poll is perfect right now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that at all. My personal preference would be for registered voters polls. But to say he didn't nail the final result in 2008, is just ignoring the facts.
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Lunar
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« Reply #444 on: April 08, 2009, 04:17:18 pm »

fair enough, he's a very credible pollster, especially with a few like Gallup wildly missing the need to have a more conservative voter turnout model in 2008
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Alcon
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« Reply #445 on: April 08, 2009, 04:24:16 pm »

one of the biggest critiques of Rasmussen is that he uses far too tight LV screens way out before it's remotely possible to determine who the LV's are.  you should at least acknowledge this criticism if you are going to assert his superiority over other polls for an election four years away

I am no way saying that his poll is perfect right now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that at all. My personal preference would be for registered voters polls. But to say he didn't nail the final result in 2008, is just ignoring the facts.

But you do need to give more concession to LV screens.  One of the major components of a quality LV screen is "how much attention are you paying to this election?"  Such a screen becomes event-sensitive at a time like now, and for instance bailout critics are more likely to identify as "paying close attention" right now than supporters.  If such a screen isn't used, this test falls back on past electoral participation -- a useful variable, but one that inevitably biases Republican at this time in the cycle.

Rasmussen is a reputable pollster.  I'd hardly dismiss his LV screen, even very early, as a measurement of likelihood to be politically educated.  But there is no such thing as a "likely voter" screen three years before an election.  A "likely voter" three years before the election is not hard to screen, but like I said, you're not going to get a representative sample.

By the way, not to criticize results-oriented analysis, but a Zogby could nail final results.  Even if someone nailed three elections in a row, they shouldn't be granted unquestioned credibility unless they can rationally explain their methodology.  Rassy can, but I'm saying, "nailed it" is not the end-all.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #446 on: April 08, 2009, 06:09:44 pm »

His final nation poll was good, yes, but his state polls were pretty mediocre.
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Lunar
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« Reply #447 on: April 08, 2009, 06:11:31 pm »

His final nation poll was good, yes, but his state polls were pretty mediocre.

not really relevant if we're talking about a current national poll
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Smash255
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« Reply #448 on: April 09, 2009, 12:38:33 am »

His final nation poll was good, yes, but his state polls were pretty mediocre.

not really relevant if we're talking about a current national poll

I'm not 100% sure, but I believe his polls leading into the election were a bit more GOP friendly.  He got it close at the very end, but a week or so out IIRC he was a bit off, though I don't remember exactly what he had.

One other thing to mention is when a President is popular he seems to have lower approvals than everyone else and when a President isn't popular his numbers seem to be better than everyone else.  Rasmussen tended to be the pollster where Bush had the highest approvals (the last several years) and where Obama has had his worst numbers.  Hard to say if that has to do with the way its asked (Strongly, somewhat approve/disapprove), a more GOP lean, or the LV screen, but the fact Rasmussen was Bush's best pollster & Obama's worst is interesting nonetheless.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #449 on: April 09, 2009, 12:47:56 am »

His final nation poll was good, yes, but his state polls were pretty mediocre.

not really relevant if we're talking about a current national poll

Maybe. I mean, I don't know that the methodology behind a state poll and a national poll is that different. I assume a national poll is just like polling a very large state, but I may be wrong. On election day, 2008, (or the days leading up to it, at least), Rasmussen released a number of finals polls, of which the national poll was only one out of what, 10 or 20? Can a pollster be much better at national polls than he is at state polls? Was his national poll's accuracy a fluke? I don't know.
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