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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 997983 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #450 on: April 09, 2009, 01:13:53 am »

I think the upcoming immigration debate will cost him a few points (~5%) as well ...
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WI Is Tilt D
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #451 on: April 09, 2009, 01:23:49 am »

Just have to stay above 55%. No way we can lose as long as we keep that goal in place.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #452 on: April 09, 2009, 01:46:44 am »

I think the upcoming immigration debate will cost him a few points (~5%) as well ...

Losing a few points temporarily, but possibly locking in the Democratic camp the fastest-growing minority group. That sounds a pretty fair deal.
Carl Rove was no dummy when he insisted that Bush and the Republicans MUST pass immigration reform in order to remain relevant in the future.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #453 on: April 09, 2009, 12:28:50 pm »

Rasmussen and Gallup are both down today, 55-44 vs. 59-29.

New Jersey (FDU, 809 RV, March 30-April 5):

66% Approve
22% Disapprove

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/aig/tab.html
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #454 on: April 09, 2009, 12:54:05 pm »

Folks, the Rasmussen national poll for 2008 would have been pretty much *dead on the money* had he adjusted his sample for higher black turnout.  His moving weight party ID was pretty much dead-on, as I recall.

Now, I have issues with Rasmussen national polling *at this moment*, in that I can't figure how you determine what a "likely voter" is when we're a couple of year away from a major election.  But his record on the national poll level cannot be poo-pooed.

At the state-wide level, as I have noted in my "state poll review" thread, I am pretty convinced that the reason certain pollsters fared the best in 2008 was because of loose LV screens.  That would explain why a number of questionable college pollsters did well and why Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon didn't (for example).  Now, this is something to keep in mind, especially for 2012, but I wouldn't expect the same event to happen in 2010.

Anyway, I view this whole thread as kind of mundane.  Obama's approval is around 60% right now (+/- 3% - I lean more towards the minus), with roughly around 35%-40% loving him, 20% thinking he's doing ok and 30% hating his guts.  The 10% who show up as neutral probably would vote against him if he were running today, but don't expect that to translate into activity down-ballot for now.  If and when those 10% move to hating his guts or the 20% start questioning or turning against him whole hog, then it will translate downballot.  But that's not happening now. 

Lastly, if and when his approval has any type of major movement one way or the other, we'll know.  Be patient.
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Rowan
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« Reply #455 on: April 15, 2009, 09:52:05 pm »

Georgia-SurveyUSA

Approve 54%
Disapprove 40%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a96fd956-46f4-49e8-b3d5-c8abb3d47a0e
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #456 on: April 15, 2009, 10:02:14 pm »

Just have to stay above 55%. No way we can lose as long as we keep that goal in place.

According to the prophet Nate Silver, Obama needs a 65% approval rating in Nov 2010 for the Democrats to avoid losing congressional seats.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #457 on: April 15, 2009, 10:18:38 pm »

New map:



Obama is still above 50% in Georgia... That's still trouble for the GOP. Big trouble!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #458 on: April 15, 2009, 11:37:07 pm »

Minnesota (PPP, April 14-15):

60% Approve
30% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MN_415.pdf
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Rowan
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« Reply #459 on: April 16, 2009, 05:07:30 pm »

Virginia- Rasmussen

Approve 56%
Disapprove 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_april_15_2009

Illinois- Rasmussen

Approve 67%
Disapprove 33%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/illinois/toplines/toplines_illinois_april_14_2009
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #460 on: April 16, 2009, 05:54:55 pm »

0% of people in Virginia have no opinion or are undecided about Obama?

Okay Scott...
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #461 on: April 16, 2009, 08:34:15 pm »

0% of people in Virginia have no opinion or are undecided about Obama?

Okay Scott...

He gives the "somewhat" option that other pollsters don't. This draws more people into giving some type of opinion.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #462 on: April 16, 2009, 11:51:49 pm »

North Carolina (PPP):

54% Approve
38% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 979 North Carolina voters from April 8th to 11th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_416.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #463 on: April 17, 2009, 12:03:08 am »

South Dakota (Dakota Wesleyan University):

62% Approve
29% Disapprove

Respondents who identified themselves as Democrats approved of Obama at a rate of 83 percent, while the approval rating from self-identified Republicans was 41 percent and the rating from self-identified independents was 61 percent.

DWU’s new poll results are based on telephone interviews with 413 South Dakotans conducted by students and faculty between March 23 and April 6. The poll’s theoretical margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percent for the statewide sample, with a confidence level of 95 percent.

http://www.dwu.edu/press/2009/apr16.htm
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #464 on: April 17, 2009, 12:07:01 am »

Florida (Quinnipiac):

60% Approve
32% Disapprove

63% Favorable
30% Unfavorable

From April 6 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,332 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 570 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points and 474 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1287
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #465 on: April 17, 2009, 12:29:05 am »

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies:

60% Approve
30% Disapprove

In a hypothetical 2012 presidential general election match-up, 50 percent said that they would definitely or probably vote for Barack Obama again (32 percent definitely, 18 percent probably) while 39 percent indicated that they would definitely or probably vote against him (26 percent definitely, 13 percent probably).

Conducted April 8-11 among 833 RV, MoE=3.4%

http://www.cookpolitical.com/poll
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #466 on: April 17, 2009, 04:43:39 am »

Map update:



South Dakota approval rating 62%? South Dakota went decisively for John McCain in 2008.

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Holmes
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« Reply #467 on: April 17, 2009, 07:51:05 am »

Who knows. Maybe an outlier, maybe a political shift!? Tongue
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #468 on: April 17, 2009, 09:42:56 am »

Who knows. Maybe an outlier, maybe a political shift!? Tongue

Or a junk uni poll.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #469 on: April 17, 2009, 09:43:25 am »

Texas- Rasmussen

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_april_16_2009
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Nhoj
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« Reply #470 on: April 17, 2009, 09:57:08 am »

Texas- Rasmussen

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_april_16_2009
now there's a poll that seems accurate.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #471 on: April 17, 2009, 10:28:01 am »

Texas- Rasmussen

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_april_16_2009

Bring on the declaration of secession!
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change08
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« Reply #472 on: April 17, 2009, 10:37:28 am »

Texas- Rasmussen

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_april_16_2009

Oh well, they're gonna seceed anyway, apparently.
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change08
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« Reply #473 on: April 17, 2009, 11:07:22 am »
« Edited: April 17, 2009, 11:11:14 am by reelectin2012 »

DKos/Research 2000
Obama Favourable/Unfavourable: 69%/27%

April 13-16, 2009
MOE 2%

http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/4/16
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #474 on: April 17, 2009, 12:58:04 pm »

Texas- Rasmussen

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_april_16_2009

Not too bad, given that Rasmussen has Obama @ 55% nationally (-7).

But Obama got a 9-10% lower share in TX on Election Day.
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