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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1002770 times)
Dan the Roman
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« Reply #575 on: April 27, 2009, 12:00:03 pm »

A lot of these polls are defining in independents differently. Rasmussen asks people to self-identify, CBS may well be weighting by registration. I would tend to to believe that given that CBS tends to suck as a pollster.
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Rowan
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« Reply #576 on: April 27, 2009, 01:45:48 pm »

Florida-Rasmussen

Approve 53%
Disapprove 47%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/florida/toplines/toplines_florida_april_23_2009
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #577 on: April 27, 2009, 01:52:51 pm »

Oh noooeees, Obama is at 63% among a GOP Likely Voter Poll !!!:

Public Opinion Strategies (R) (800 LV, April 19-21):

63% Approve
32% Disapprove

Party Composition:

37% DEM
30% GOP
32% IND

Looking forward to Rowan's spin ...

http://blog.pos.org/2009/04/819/
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Rowan
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« Reply #578 on: April 27, 2009, 02:01:28 pm »

I would like to know what his approval is for each D, R, and I but they don't list it. Nonetheless, it doesn't look like a bad poll.

And I see you ignored the fact that I shot down your argument that the Washington Post poll was not out on its own.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #579 on: April 27, 2009, 02:27:06 pm »

And I see you ignored the fact that I shot down your argument that the Washington Post poll was not out on its own.

Democrats are fine at 93%, Independents are fine at 67% with few Undecideds, Republicans could be off by about 5-10%. If this poll stands out for high Republican support, Rasmussen stands out for his crappy insisting that Indies split 50-50 atm.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #580 on: April 27, 2009, 02:31:32 pm »

New Hampshire (503 adults, University of NH, April 13-22):

63% Approve (D-97, I-62, R-36)
29% Disapprove (D-1, I-28, R-54)

64% Favorable (D-96, I-66, R-34)
27% Unfavorable (D-2, I-26, R-52)

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2009_spring_presapp42709.pdf
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Rowan
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« Reply #581 on: April 27, 2009, 02:32:27 pm »

And I see you ignored the fact that I shot down your argument that the Washington Post poll was not out on its own.

Democrats are fine at 93%, Independents are fine at 67% with few Undecideds, Republicans could be off by about 5-10%. If this poll stands out for high Republican support, Rasmussen stands out for his crappy insisting that Indies split 50-50 atm.

Independents are fine at 67%? No one else even has it that close. I would really like to see how many of these Independents disapprove in that poll, but of course they don't show that. How do you know if there are few undecideds?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #582 on: April 27, 2009, 02:44:08 pm »

OBAMA IS POPULAR???!!!???

ROWAN MAD!!!11 RAAA!!!
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Rowan
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« Reply #583 on: April 27, 2009, 04:41:40 pm »

Georgia- Rasmussen

Approve 54%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/georgia/toplines_election_2010_georgia_april_23_2009
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #584 on: April 27, 2009, 04:48:33 pm »


So, Obama is more popular in Georgia than in Florida.

Oooookay!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #585 on: April 27, 2009, 05:39:58 pm »


I must say that those are some... interesting... results.
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Holmes
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« Reply #586 on: April 27, 2009, 06:31:51 pm »

New Hampshire (503 adults, University of NH, April 13-22):

63% Approve (D-97, I-62, R-36)
29% Disapprove (D-1, I-28, R-54)

64% Favorable (D-96, I-66, R-34)
27% Unfavorable (D-2, I-26, R-52)

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2009_spring_presapp42709.pdf

Ooh. Lately I've been having a high affinity for New Hampshire, so thanks for an approval ratings fix. Smiley
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #587 on: April 27, 2009, 06:34:11 pm »

I'll stop treating Rasmussen like a joke when he stops pretending what he knows likely voters are over a year before any election (and over three before the Presidential) and when he stops claiming that 100% of voters have an opinion of Obama.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #588 on: April 27, 2009, 06:46:42 pm »


Using Rasmussen's Presidential Approval Index (strongly approve - strongly disapprove), it's +7 in Georgia and +1 in Florida

Dave
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Rowan
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« Reply #589 on: April 27, 2009, 06:55:02 pm »


Using Rasmussen's Presidential Approval Index (strongly approve - strongly disapprove), it's +7 in Georgia and +1 in Florida

Dave

It's probably because black Democrats in Georgia(a high percentage of the total electorate) are more likely to strongly approve of Obama than white Democrats in Florida are.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #590 on: April 27, 2009, 11:55:25 pm »

The WP poll's internals just look wacky.  Partisan polls - well, you know...

I continue to be concerned about the wide divergences between IVR polls and live questioner polls.

However, I want to see what SUSA provides this month before saying too much more.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #591 on: April 28, 2009, 12:04:02 am »

CBS News/NYT Poll (April 22-26):

68% Approve (D-91, I-65, R-31)
23% Disapprove (D-3, I-24, R-57)

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_042709_100days.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #592 on: April 28, 2009, 12:10:30 am »

CNN/Opinion Research:

63% Approve
33% Disapprove

Democrats overwhelmingly approve of how Obama is handling his job as president; 61 percent of independents agree. Only 28 percent of Republicans say the president is doing a good job in office.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday, with 2,019 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/poll.obama.policies/index.html
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Lunar
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« Reply #593 on: April 28, 2009, 01:26:51 am »

NBC/WSJ is coming out tomorrow, yays
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #594 on: April 28, 2009, 01:37:06 am »

CBS News/NYT Poll (April 22-26):

68% Approve (D-91, I-65, R-31)
23% Disapprove (D-3, I-24, R-57)

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_042709_100days.pdf

CNN/Opinion Research:

63% Approve
33% Disapprove

Democrats overwhelmingly approve of how Obama is handling his job as president; 61 percent of independents agree. Only 28 percent of Republicans say the president is doing a good job in office.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday, with 2,019 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/poll.obama.policies/index.html

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Rowan
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« Reply #595 on: April 28, 2009, 10:18:01 am »

Illinois- PPP

Approve 61%
Disapprove 31%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IL_428.pdf

I think it's becoming pretty clear that the IVR pollsters are getting lower approval ratings.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #596 on: April 28, 2009, 10:36:04 am »

Latest update:

...

The biggest state in electoral votes not yet shown is Indiana (11).  Next is Maryland (10), which I suspect will show up in a very dark shade of green. Louisiana (9) should be interesting.

... It is surprising that Obama has positive ratings in several states that he lost in 2008. If he is roughly as well-regarded in Kansas (which he lost big) as he is in Pennsylvania (which he won big), then he is doing better at creating popularity than he did at election time.

Possible explanations:

1. Obama has maxed out his support in the "Blue firewall". There's just no way for him to get greater support in New York or California.

2. Obama is picking up support from constituencies who didn't vote for him in 2008: farmers? Poor white people?

I look at South Dakota and Kansas, two of the most rural states in America... and perhaps some people who didn't vote for him now think that he isn't "all that bad". I look at such states as Arkansas and Kentucky and figure that people who couldn't vote for him because he was "too urban", "too Northern", or "too liberal" in 2008... find his policies tolerable. Maybe fewer people in those states get FoX Propaganda Channel.  

3. Obama may be succeeding at reducing the political polarization in America. Does anyone see any Rove-like "majority of a majority" stuff under Obama? He has already set his style of leadership, and people may be seeing it as more effective than what they have seen recently.

4. Obama still has much good will on the economy. He's not  getting blame for the economic distress that Americans now endure -- yet. He could get blame for new economic distress should it occur, but that distress (like a second crash) has yet to happen.

5. Should the pattern hold, the GOP is in deep trouble in 2012. It might whittle away a couple of House seats of marginally-incompetent Democrats or those in districts decidedly more conservative than the average in 2010, but in 2012... the GOP has few areas that it can now rely upon for votes. Huckabee might win a bunch of states now in pale green in the southeastern US only to lose in the Upper Plains while whittling away nothing from the Blue Firewall. Palin and Romney look as if they would have trouble in the South because they have no obvious ties to it -- and neither can whittle away at the Blue Firewall. Who runs shapes how elections... but if I were predicting the 2012 Presidential election, I could only predict (assuming no real change, itself asking much) that the only significant difference between possible GOP nominees is how they lose.  

6. Obama is a masterful politician, and that shows in approval polls. The approval ratings don't show his techniques so much as they show the geographical basis of his approval.


 


  
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Franzl
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« Reply #597 on: April 28, 2009, 10:54:41 am »


Have you ever written a post that isn't aggressive or sarcastic in tone?

Yes, to legitimate posters. I really don't waste my time with left wing hacks and religious bigots like you.

As often as I get upset with some of your comments....that was perfectly legitimate.
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn
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« Reply #598 on: April 28, 2009, 10:56:29 am »

And you consider religious bigotry worse than racist bigotry?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #599 on: April 28, 2009, 10:56:43 am »

Illinois- PPP

Approve 61%
Disapprove 31%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IL_428.pdf

I think it's becoming pretty clear that the IVR pollsters are getting lower approval ratings.

That number extrapolates pretty well into a 53-41 national number, all told.

I did my re-check of the SUSA numbers extrapolated from the 14 states polled in March (500 adults) and came up with 59% approval.  Given the way adults skews from RV (or LV), that puts it in the Rasmussen/PPP category of mid-50s approval.  I am curious to see April.

The only other poll out there which gives us an approval in the mid-50s range is Marist and I have no clue why that would be different than the others.  They're not using computer technology, as far as I know.  

They are using RV.  And the other polls using RV with live questioners tend to show lower approval (around 60%) than the adult polls (mid-60%) on average.

But this IVR vs. live questioner skew is troubling me greatly, especially if it continues.  Makes me suspect that lying is going on.  It can't be laid on survey methodology, since Rasmussen has the tightest voter screen (which should skew his polls more Republican) and PPP tends to uses weights which skew Democratic.

Just some food for thought.
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