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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 997451 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #675 on: May 01, 2009, 11:09:11 am »

Finally, Obama's standing in Indiana (to some extent):

Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Evan Bayh:

61% Favorable
38% Unfavorable

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/cheat-sheet/043009-white-house-cheat-sheet.html

That's better than I expected, although I guess his job approval will be about 56-58.

No, according to Howey Politics, Obama's approval rating in Indiana is 61-36.

http://www.howeypolitics.com/2009/05/01/bayh-votes-against-obamas-budget

Once again Bayh shows that he really has the finger on the pulse of his constituents.
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Rowan
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« Reply #676 on: May 01, 2009, 11:23:04 am »

FYI, Rasmussen April Party ID:

D 38.7%(nc)
R 32.6%(-0.6%)
I 28.7%(+0.6%)

These are the changes from March. Republicans went lower and Indies went up.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #677 on: May 01, 2009, 12:52:55 pm »
« Edited: May 01, 2009, 02:28:20 pm by pbrower2a »

Latest update:



Indiana in! Correction made! Georgia gets cut down a bit.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #678 on: May 01, 2009, 12:57:19 pm »

I'm going to interpret the 63% support for Bayh in Indiana as a "high 5" in Indiana for Obama. That's not too far off from Ohio. Georgia gets cut down a bit.

No, you got this wrong:

The poll was conducted for Evan Bayh, but also asked for Obama's approval.

Obama's approval in Indiana is 61-36, his favorable rating is 61-38.

Bayh's approval is at 73%, his favorable rating at 74-23.
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Rowan
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« Reply #679 on: May 01, 2009, 01:02:15 pm »

It's a Democratic poll for a Democratic candidate, the numbers are likely inflated.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #680 on: May 01, 2009, 01:07:34 pm »

It's a Democratic poll for a Democratic candidate, the numbers are likely inflated.

Not necessarily: Dick Lugar has a 74-19 favorable rating in the same poll.
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Rowan
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« Reply #681 on: May 01, 2009, 01:12:11 pm »

It's a Democratic poll for a Democratic candidate, the numbers are likely inflated.

Not necessarily: Dick Lugar has a 74-19 favorable rating in the same poll.

Then all of their favorables are way too high. Smiley
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #682 on: May 01, 2009, 02:29:47 pm »

It's a Democratic poll for a Democratic candidate, the numbers are likely inflated.

Not necessarily: Dick Lugar has a 74-19 favorable rating in the same poll.

Lugar ran unopposed in a bad year for the Republican Party (2006) because no Democrat thought himself able to beat him.
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Rowan
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« Reply #683 on: May 01, 2009, 03:55:04 pm »

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022
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Alcon
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« Reply #684 on: May 01, 2009, 04:01:27 pm »

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%
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Rowan
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« Reply #685 on: May 01, 2009, 04:10:04 pm »

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

But it's kinda not relevant since it uses a different electorate composition than what voted in 2008.
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The Duke
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« Reply #686 on: May 02, 2009, 12:40:56 am »

This thread will be amusing when unemployment hits 12%.

I don't know, with GOP reactions like that, I'd say that it's pretty amusing right now. Smiley

You can pretty much put me in the Sam Spade level of pessimism camp on the economy.  I basically think we're in deep you-know-what for a couple of years no matter what we do, and it will come as no shock that I think almost every single thing Obama has done has made the problem bigger.  He misdiagnosed both the problem and the solution.

So yeah, suffice it to say I think Obama's approval ratings are going to slide quite a bit over the next year.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #687 on: May 02, 2009, 05:13:44 am »

This thread will be amusing when unemployment hits 12%.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator. As a rule, businesses do not hire to stimulate economic activity; they hire only after they can no longer speed up production lines and push Herculean efforts onto workers. The Darwinian cull of the workforce continues until it is unsustainable.

The current recession/depression will not end with a new speculative boom; any recovery will need a new basis -- at the least, replacement of the threadbare, wrecked, and obsolete consumer goods. New technologies and new ways of doing business will have to create economic growth that is not so much a boom as a recovery.

Many people will have to do what they did in the 1930s: establish businesses -- unglamorous start-up enterprises that can undercut cartels and trusts. But let's remember: there is no better time than a depression for starting a business. Good help is easy to find; real estate is cheap; capital is cheap; plenty of used equipment (from businesses that went under) is available; inventories are cheap.  Sweat equity builds capital without bloated bureaucracies.
 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #688 on: May 02, 2009, 12:22:09 pm »

The gap between Rasmussen and Gallup is widening again:

54-45 (nc, nc) vs. 67-28 (+4, -3 in the last 2 days)
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #689 on: May 02, 2009, 12:33:47 pm »

The gap between Rasmussen and Gallup is widening again:

54-45 (nc, nc) vs. 67-28 (+4, -3 in the last 2 days)
I'm going to say it's right in the middle of those 2. Probably about 60-35, which is average for a President at this time.
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Rowan
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« Reply #690 on: May 02, 2009, 03:14:11 pm »

Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.
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You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #691 on: May 02, 2009, 03:50:52 pm »

Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

Crap, they're showing what most other pollsters are. They're so terrible...
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Rowan
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« Reply #692 on: May 02, 2009, 03:52:29 pm »

Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

Crap, they're showing what most other pollsters are. They're so terrible...

Right. And by most other pollsters you mean CBS and WAPO? Thanks for playing.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #693 on: May 03, 2009, 12:26:20 am »

Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

At least Gallup was better than Rasmussen in predicting Bush's approval on Election Day:

Gallup: 26-69

Rasmussen: 35-62

According to the Exit Poll: 28-72
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Zarn
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« Reply #694 on: May 03, 2009, 01:06:34 am »

An exit poll is just that. Another poll.
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Alcon
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« Reply #695 on: May 03, 2009, 01:09:59 am »

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

But it's kinda not relevant since it uses a different electorate composition than what voted in 2008.

1. There were polls of adults in 2008

2. The 2012 election is kinda not relevant since it uses a different electorate composition than what voted in 2008, or can be modeled by the current LV polls you've (IIRC) previously advocated

You're kind of annoying sometimes

An exit poll is just that. Another poll.

Not really -- Different flaws and benefits
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Zarn
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« Reply #696 on: May 03, 2009, 01:18:25 am »

All polls have different 'flaws and benefits.'

It's just not hard enough data.
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Alcon
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« Reply #697 on: May 03, 2009, 01:21:51 am »

All polls have different 'flaws and benefits.'

In a very specific sense, yes.  But exit polls have a radically different methodology and sample than phone polls -- they are hence not "just...another poll."  That's what I meant, at least.

It's just not hard enough data.

What do you mean by "hard," and it's not hard enough for what?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #698 on: May 03, 2009, 01:54:04 am »

This thread will be amusing when unemployment hits 12%.

I don't know, with GOP reactions like that, I'd say that it's pretty amusing right now. Smiley

You can pretty much put me in the Sam Spade level of pessimism camp on the economy.  I basically think we're in deep you-know-what for a couple of years no matter what we do, and it will come as no shock that I think almost every single thing Obama has done has made the problem bigger.  He misdiagnosed both the problem and the solution.

Bush is just as responsible, of course.  But what Obama's doing will not help any, obviously.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #699 on: May 03, 2009, 02:06:38 am »

Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

At least Gallup was better than Rasmussen in predicting Bush's approval on Election Day:

Gallup: 26-69

Rasmussen: 35-62

According to the Exit Poll: 28-72

A poll conducted on Election Day is not the same as a poll conducted on Inauguration Day.  Come on.

I am still concerned about the distinction between IVR polls and phone polling - SUSA saying 58% approval with adults translates into somewhere near a Rasmussen (LV) @ 54% or a PPP (RV) @ 53%. (not to mention the higher disapprovals)

Does anyone else have a good explanation for this other than people lying to phone pollsters?   Well, other than people lying to machines and not to phone pollsters (not likely)?  There's only one phone poll not showing this distinction - Marist (and they show lower disapprovals)

Another point I would make is that if the distinction I am noting is accurate and if the IVR polls are picking up a lying distinction, then the "do-over" Alcon posted makes a lot of sense.

And leads to a much more interesting conclusion in my mind...
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