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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 997247 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #700 on: May 03, 2009, 02:16:13 am »

Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

At least Gallup was better than Rasmussen in predicting Bush's approval on Election Day:

Gallup: 26-69

Rasmussen: 35-62

According to the Exit Poll: 28-72

A poll conducted on Election Day is not the same as a poll conducted on Inauguration Day.  Come on.


The Rasmussen and Gallup polls I mentioned were not conducted on Inauguration Day, but between Nov. 2 and 4.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #701 on: May 03, 2009, 02:28:22 am »

Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

At least Gallup was better than Rasmussen in predicting Bush's approval on Election Day:

Gallup: 26-69

Rasmussen: 35-62

According to the Exit Poll: 28-72

A poll conducted on Election Day is not the same as a poll conducted on Inauguration Day.  Come on.


The Rasmussen and Gallup polls I mentioned were not conducted on Inauguration Day, but between Nov. 2 and 4.

ok, thanks.  My confusion.

The more interesting question is why Rasmussen was much closer in the actual result than Gallup considering the Bush approval calls.  I have a theory, naturally...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #702 on: May 03, 2009, 07:57:13 am »

The latest Democracy Corps poll should also be noted, because they were very accurate in 2008:

They showed Obama vs. McCain at 51-44 in a 3-way race and 52-44 in a 2-way, the House at 52-42 (it ended up as 53-44) and Bush's approval at 30-64.

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/11/national-survey-7/?section=Survey

Now to their new likely voter poll (1000 actual 2008 voters and 851 likely 2010 voters):

58% Approve
32% Disapprove

2010 Congressional Vote:

50% Democrats
40% Republicans

http://www.democracycorps.com/download.php?attachment=dc10042609fq5web.pdf

So what is causing the discrepancy between them and Rasmussen, as they both use LV-models ? Why does Rasmussen show 13% higher disapprovals for Obama and why is there a 13% difference in the Congressional vote, desite the fact that DC was about as/or even more accurate in Nov. 2008 than Rasmussen ? Is it really like Sam Spade thinks that LV are lying to real people more than machines when they are polled ?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #703 on: May 03, 2009, 08:45:49 am »
« Edited: May 03, 2009, 02:32:26 pm by pbrower2a »

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

Let's interpret that as a "vote-over". 93% are decided, so that leaves 7% undecided. A third of the undecided don't vote for President, and of the undecided who end up voting they go 3-2 for McCain (because those voters are more likely to be Republicans):

Add 40% x 2/3 x 7% = 1.867% to Obama's 54% (55.867%)
Add 60% x 2/3 x 7% = 2.800% to McCain's 39% (41.800%)

Add the sum of their results from 100% to get a percentage of voters (97.667%)

Divide each by .97667 to reduce the number of non-voters polled, and you get:

Obama 57.20%
McCain 42.80%

2008 reality:

Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

Likely effect of a vote with a 57-43 spread instead of 52-47:




That assumes that Obama gains as much in percentage in California as in Kentucky. Without such an assumption, things look very bad for the GOP in 2012.






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Rowan
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« Reply #704 on: May 03, 2009, 09:44:18 am »

I just think one of the explanations has to be that people are more comfortable telling a machine that they disapprove of Obama than they are a live caller(for fear of being perceived racist, not wanting to look like you want him to fail, telling the pollster what you think they want to hear, etc.). The same is true of party ID. Because the Republican brand is tarnished now, people are more likely to tell a machine that they are Republican than they are a live caller.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #705 on: May 03, 2009, 09:47:00 am »

I just think one of the explanations has to be that people are more comfortable telling a machine that they disapprove of Obama than they are a live caller(for fear of being perceived racist, not wanting to look like you want him to fail, telling the pollster what you think they want to hear, etc.). The same is true of party ID. Because the Republican brand is tarnished now, people are more likely to tell a machine that they are Republican than they are a live caller.

How many more times do we have to hear about the Bradley Effect?
I thought the last election proved once and for all that this thing is dead and buried, if it ever existed.
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Zarn
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« Reply #706 on: May 03, 2009, 09:47:55 am »

All polls have different 'flaws and benefits.'

In a very specific sense, yes.  But exit polls have a radically different methodology and sample than phone polls -- they are hence not "just...another poll."  That's what I meant, at least.

It's just not hard enough data.

What do you mean by "hard," and it's not hard enough for what?

Hard data is an actual count.
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Rowan
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« Reply #707 on: May 03, 2009, 09:48:33 am »

I just think one of the explanations has to be that people are more comfortable telling a machine that they disapprove of Obama than they are a live caller(for fear of being perceived racist, not wanting to look like you want him to fail, telling the pollster what you think they want to hear, etc.). The same is true of party ID. Because the Republican brand is tarnished now, people are more likely to tell a machine that they are Republican than they are a live caller.

How many more times do we have to hear about the Bradley Effect?
I thought the last election proved once and for all that this thing is dead and buried, if it ever existed.

It's not the Bradley Effect(learn what it actually is first). Can you give me an explanation why the numbers vary so widely?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #708 on: May 03, 2009, 09:51:09 am »

I just think one of the explanations has to be that people are more comfortable telling a machine that they disapprove of Obama than they are a live caller(for fear of being perceived racist, not wanting to look like you want him to fail, telling the pollster what you think they want to hear, etc.). The same is true of party ID. Because the Republican brand is tarnished now, people are more likely to tell a machine that they are Republican than they are a live caller.

How many more times do we have to hear about the Bradley Effect?
I thought the last election proved once and for all that this thing is dead and buried, if it ever existed.

It's not the Bradley Effect(learn what it actually is first). Can you give me an explanation why the numbers vary so widely?

I know very well what the Bradley Effect is, thank you very much.
And I don't know why the polls differ. Different methodology perhaps.
But certainly no conspiracy theory about whites being afraid to say that they disapprove Obama.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #709 on: May 03, 2009, 12:04:42 pm »

Obama-surge ?

Gallup: 68-26 (+5, -5 in the past 3 days)

Rasmussen: 56-43 (+2, -2)
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change08
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« Reply #710 on: May 03, 2009, 12:07:19 pm »

Obama-surge ?

Gallup: 68-26 (+5, -5 in the past 3 days)

Rasmussen: 56-43 (+2, -2)

Is it because of Wednesday's TV stint? The whole thing from the campaign of Obama's numbers going up if he's on TV.
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Lunar
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« Reply #711 on: May 03, 2009, 12:34:40 pm »

maybe he should do what Blago can't and go on that reality show?
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Zarn
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« Reply #712 on: May 03, 2009, 01:04:25 pm »

I think a more negative sample simply came off in Rasmussen more so than an actual gain.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #713 on: May 04, 2009, 09:10:28 am »

Still heading up:

Rasmussen 57(+1) 43(0)
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Zarn
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« Reply #714 on: May 04, 2009, 10:26:53 am »

Still, saying the same.

He went down to plus 1 in the stronglys, so it is not unreasonable that he bounces back.
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Verily
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« Reply #715 on: May 04, 2009, 11:02:53 am »

Still, saying the same.

He went down to plus 1 in the stronglys, so it is not unreasonable that he bounces back.

He's actually up to +5 on the Stronglys. Still, Rasmussen has been inclined to just bounce around its preferred number for a while, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it go down tomorrow.
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change08
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« Reply #716 on: May 04, 2009, 11:07:47 am »

Quinnipiac University
4/29 - 5/3/09; 1,120 registered voters, 2.9% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 66 / 29
Gov. Rendell: 53 / 38
Sen. Specter: 56 / 36
Sen. Casey: 55 /21
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Rowan
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« Reply #717 on: May 04, 2009, 11:16:24 am »

Still, saying the same.

He went down to plus 1 in the stronglys, so it is not unreasonable that he bounces back.

He's actually up to +5 on the Stronglys. Still, Rasmussen has been inclined to just bounce around its preferred number for a while, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it go down tomorrow.

Based on the internals actually, it is most likely to go up tomorrow to 58% or either stay the same at 57%...
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Zarn
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« Reply #718 on: May 04, 2009, 11:55:28 am »

Seems that way, even from not having the internals...
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #719 on: May 04, 2009, 11:58:27 am »

Quinnipiac University
4/29 - 5/3/09; 1,120 registered voters, 2.9% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 66 / 29
Gov. Rendell: 53 / 38
Sen. Specter: 56 / 36
Sen. Casey: 55 /21

So much for Phil's claim that Pennsylvanians are dissapointed with Casey.
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Rowan
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« Reply #720 on: May 04, 2009, 12:14:38 pm »

Gallup

Approve 67%(-1)
Disapprove 27%(+1)

COLLAPSE!!!! OH NO!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #721 on: May 04, 2009, 12:49:56 pm »

New York (Marist, 1029 RV, April 28-29):

64% Excellent/Good
34% Fair/Poor

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/nyspolls/ny090428/Obama%20Approval%20Rating.htm
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #722 on: May 04, 2009, 01:10:31 pm »

Zogby Internet Poll of 3.367 Likely Voters (April 28-30):

Rate performance of Barack Obama in his first 100 days?

54% Positive
45% Negative

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1691
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change08
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« Reply #723 on: May 04, 2009, 01:36:16 pm »

Zogby Internet Poll of 3.367 Likely Voters (April 28-30):

Rate performance of Barack Obama in his first 100 days?

54% Positive
45% Negative

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1691

WOW! Zogby Internet has him at 54%, he must be doing well.
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Rob
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« Reply #724 on: May 04, 2009, 03:55:34 pm »

Zogby is the only pollster who hasn't sold out to the liberal Democrat Socialist Party, apparently.
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