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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 997242 times)
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change08
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« Reply #725 on: May 04, 2009, 05:02:36 pm »

Liberal Democrat Fascist-Socialist Workers Party, apparently.

Didn't you get that memo?
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Badger
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« Reply #726 on: May 04, 2009, 05:24:13 pm »

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

Let's interpret that as a "vote-over". 93% are decided, so that leaves 7% undecided. A third of the undecided don't vote for President, and of the undecided who end up voting they go 3-2 for McCain (because those voters are more likely to be Republicans):

Add 40% x 2/3 x 7% = 1.867% to Obama's 54% (55.867%)
Add 60% x 2/3 x 7% = 2.800% to McCain's 39% (41.800%)

Add the sum of their results from 100% to get a percentage of voters (97.667%)

Divide each by .97667 to reduce the number of non-voters polled, and you get:

Obama 57.20%
McCain 42.80%

2008 reality:

Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

Likely effect of a vote with a 57-43 spread instead of 52-47:




That assumes that Obama gains as much in percentage in California as in Kentucky. Without such an assumption, things look very bad for the GOP in 2012.







FWIW: Doesn't GA also flip under this scenario?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #727 on: May 04, 2009, 06:51:54 pm »

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

Let's interpret that as a "vote-over". 93% are decided, so that leaves 7% undecided. A third of the undecided don't vote for President, and of the undecided who end up voting they go 3-2 for McCain (because those voters are more likely to be Republicans):

Add 40% x 2/3 x 7% = 1.867% to Obama's 54% (55.867%)
Add 60% x 2/3 x 7% = 2.800% to McCain's 39% (41.800%)

Add the sum of their results from 100% to get a percentage of voters (97.667%)

Divide each by .97667 to reduce the number of non-voters polled, and you get:

Obama 57.20%
McCain 42.80%

2008 reality:

Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

Likely effect of a vote with a 57-43 spread instead of 52-47:




That assumes that Obama gains as much in percentage in California as in Kentucky. Without such an assumption, things look very bad for the GOP in 2012.







FWIW: Doesn't GA also flip under this scenario?


I didn't realize that Obama was within 4 points of winning Georgia -- and the difference is slightly more than 4%.

You are right, and I make a subtle correction for the Dakotas --



Nebraska and West Virginia get very close.

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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #728 on: May 04, 2009, 07:48:39 pm »

Zogby Internet Poll of 3.367 Likely Voters (April 28-30):

Rate performance of Barack Obama in his first 100 days?

54% Positive
45% Negative

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1691

Joke pollster.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #729 on: May 04, 2009, 07:58:36 pm »

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

Let's interpret that as a "vote-over". 93% are decided, so that leaves 7% undecided. A third of the undecided don't vote for President, and of the undecided who end up voting they go 3-2 for McCain (because those voters are more likely to be Republicans):

Add 40% x 2/3 x 7% = 1.867% to Obama's 54% (55.867%)
Add 60% x 2/3 x 7% = 2.800% to McCain's 39% (41.800%)

Add the sum of their results from 100% to get a percentage of voters (97.667%)

Divide each by .97667 to reduce the number of non-voters polled, and you get:

Obama 57.20%
McCain 42.80%

2008 reality:

Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

Likely effect of a vote with a 57-43 spread instead of 52-47:




That assumes that Obama gains as much in percentage in California as in Kentucky. Without such an assumption, things look very bad for the GOP in 2012.







FWIW: Doesn't GA also flip under this scenario?


I didn't realize that Obama was within 4 points of winning Georgia -- and the difference is slightly more than 4%.

You are right, and I make a subtle correction for the Dakotas --



Nebraska and West Virginia get very close.



SC, ND and SD could switch given that Obama wins the South in this rematch and trounces McCain in the Midwest, which if I'm not mistaken, includes the Plains for polling purposes. A swing to McCain in the West, may see MT elude Obama
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #730 on: May 05, 2009, 01:15:33 pm »

Very Important Polls (VIP's) today:

Maricopa County: 51% Excellent/Good, 44% Fair Poor

http://www.brcpolls.com/09/RMP%202009-II-01.pdf

Delaware:

62% Approve

http://www.ledgerdelaware.com/articles/2009/05/04/news/doc49ffa1c1afca0453799066.txt
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Verily
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« Reply #731 on: May 05, 2009, 01:47:58 pm »

The Maricopa County poll is actually 51-20 because apparently they included "very poor" as an option, meaning "fair" was intended by context to be neutral. (Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor is a terrible way to measure opinion anyway because "Fair" has positive connotations.)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #732 on: May 05, 2009, 01:49:36 pm »

Again, a rare feature from across the pond:

Italy Obama Approval by Digis S.r.l for SkyTG24:

72% Approve
28% Disapprove

PdL/Lega Nord Voters:

68% Approve
32% Disapprove

Partito Democratico Voters:

81% Approve
19% Disapprove

93% of Italians are also happy that Obama withdraws US-troops from Iraq by 2010.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzZrGs3yuDs
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Rob
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« Reply #733 on: May 05, 2009, 03:37:24 pm »

(Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor is a terrible way to measure opinion anyway because "Fair" has positive connotations.)

"Mediocre" would be a much better choice imo.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #734 on: May 06, 2009, 12:57:30 pm »

Ohio (Quinnipiac, April 28-May 4):

62% Approve
31% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1295
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Rowan
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« Reply #735 on: May 06, 2009, 12:58:48 pm »

Gallup

Approve 66%(-1)
Disapprove 27%(nc)

Inching back down towards reality.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #736 on: May 06, 2009, 01:00:57 pm »

Gallup

Approve 66%(-1)
Disapprove 27%(nc)

Inching back down towards reality.

But Rasmussen's back up today to 57-43 (+1, nc).
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Rowan
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« Reply #737 on: May 06, 2009, 01:06:15 pm »

Gallup

Approve 66%(-1)
Disapprove 27%(nc)

Inching back down towards reality.

But Rasmussen's back up today to 57-43 (+1, nc).

Reality(to me at least) is 60-62%.
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change08
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« Reply #738 on: May 06, 2009, 01:32:32 pm »

Gallup

Approve 66%(-1)
Disapprove 27%(nc)

Inching back down towards reality.

But Rasmussen's back up today to 57-43 (+1, nc).

Reality(to me at least) is 60-62%.

Yeah, it's probably been hovering at that point for a good few weeks. 60%'s a good guess.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #739 on: May 06, 2009, 02:24:02 pm »

Very Important Polls (VIP's) today:

Maricopa County: 51% Excellent/Good, 44% Fair Poor

http://www.brcpolls.com/09/RMP%202009-II-01.pdf

Delaware:

62% Approve

http://www.ledgerdelaware.com/articles/2009/05/04/news/doc49ffa1c1afca0453799066.txt

Maricopa County is the political base of John McCain. In 2008 that was relevant. In 2012 that isn't.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #740 on: May 06, 2009, 11:50:20 pm »

North Carolina (Civitas Institute, 600 Likely Voters, April 21-23)

60% Favorable
29% Unfavorable

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/civitas-poll-obama-popular-policies-not
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Rowan
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« Reply #741 on: May 07, 2009, 06:55:41 pm »

Ipsos/McClatchey

Approve 65%
Disapprove 31%

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/67621.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #742 on: May 07, 2009, 11:51:49 pm »

Pennsylvania (Research2000/DailyKos)Sad

65% Favorable
28% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Pennsylvania Poll was conducted from May 4 through May 6, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/5/6/PA/304
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #743 on: May 08, 2009, 05:11:50 am »

Latest update:

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« Reply #744 on: May 08, 2009, 07:01:12 am »

Great numbers for Obama. "You're doing a heck of a job Brownie!" hehe
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #745 on: May 08, 2009, 12:46:31 pm »

Rasmussen:

58% Approve (+1)
41% Disapprove (-2)

Gallup:

66% Approve (-1)
28% Disapprove (+2)

California (Public Policy Institute of CA, April 27-May 4)Sad

Adults (N=2005): 72% Approve, 20% Disapprove

Registered Voters (N=1515): 68% Approve, 24% Disapprove

Likely Voters (N=1080): 66% Approve, 26% Disapprove

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0509.pdf
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« Reply #746 on: May 08, 2009, 12:47:55 pm »

So Obama's probably at around 60% nationally.  Good numbers for May.
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Rowan
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« Reply #747 on: May 08, 2009, 03:06:32 pm »

Wow, that's pretty sad that only just over half of California adults are considered likely voters.
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change08
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« Reply #748 on: May 08, 2009, 05:52:22 pm »

Wow, that's pretty sad that only just over half of California adults are considered likely voters.

Well the next election is November next year, nevermind presidential.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #749 on: May 11, 2009, 01:22:25 pm »

Arizona (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 6)Sad

49% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/arizona/toplines/toplines_john_mccain_and_arizona_may_6_2009
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